Tag: Oil

We should bomb them and take thier oil

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Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm:

The London-based World Energy Council says Israel’s Shfela Basin, a half-hour drive south of Jerusalem, holds 250 billion barrels of recoverable shale oil, possibly making the energy-vulnerable country (as expressed by The Wall Street Journal) “the world’s newest energy giant.” With reserves of 260 billion barrels, Saudi Arabia would remain the world’s No. 1 oil country – though not, perhaps, for long. Howard Jonas, CEO of U.S.-based IDT Corp., the company that owns the Shfela Basin concession, says there is much more oil under Israel than under Saudi Arabia: Perhaps, he says, twice as much.

Even with a mere 250 billion barrels, the Shfela Basin (or 238 square kilometres of it) would make Israel the third-largest holder of shale reserves in the world – right behind the U.S. with 1.5 trillion barrels and China with 355 billion barrels. Assuming for the moment that Mr. Jonas is correct in his calculations, the U.S. and Israel would together hold shale reserves in excess of two trillion barrels: Enough oil to fuel these two countries (at combined consumption of eight billion barrels a year) for more than 200 years.

And the discovery of further vast energy reserves in the United States and Israel progresses at an accelerated (and now often frenzied) pace. With shale, everything depends on technology – and the prospects are encouraging. In the Texas shale play known as Eagle Ford, for example, 12 companies will drill 3,000 wells in the next year, all of them within spitting distance (as The New York times put it) “of a forsaken South Texas village” notable only for its derelict gas stations and rusting warehouses. Elsewhere in the country, thousands more wells will be drilled with new technology that cuts drilling time, per well, to 25 days from 65.

According to the Times, 20 of these shale oil plays could increase U.S. oil production by 25 per cent in the next 10 years. “This is very big and it’s coming fast,” says U.S. energy expert Daniel Yergin, chairman of the energy research company IHS CERA. “This is like adding another Venezuela or another Kuwait – except that these fields are in the U.S.”

via With its oil treasure, Israel gets a shield from tyranny – The Globe and Mail.

Oh, wait, they’re not Arabs; so we cannot label them terrorists and take their oil. My bad. 😀

Of course, I am being my normal sarcastic self…..or am I? 😯

 

 

David Morgan and Chris Vermeulen talk about Metals Trading

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I do these posts here to help with the financial situation around here, or in my case; a lack of it. As it does say, up in that top left hand corner box on here; I have no had a “real job” since 2005.  So, if you would please click on the links and sign up for the newsletters. I get a nice referral fee, if you do. This is for those who do not like or do not trust Paypal. Every little bit helps! So, if you want to help a unemployed “right of center” type of guy, who has a blog, this is the time to do it. Thanks so much!

-Pat

—-

The Audio:

[podcast]http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-0520-1.mp3[/podcast]

More info Here

You can also see Chris Vermeulen’s last forecast, where he nailed the prediction on what Silver would do in the markets.

 

Video: Jack Hunter “Bush Trumped Conservatism”

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Wow, Me and Jack Hunter are on the same wave length.

Video:

Transcript Here

Video: What the Neo-Conservatives created in Iraq

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First some very disturbing video from Fox News:

Now the story via Fox News Channel:

On April 8th, the same day Defense Secretary Robert Gates was visiting leaders in Baghdad, a 2,500-man Iraqi Army unit raided a compound occupied by Iranian dissidents in Iraq, killing 34 people and injuring 325 others. Eight of those killed were women, according to the United Nations.

The attack occurred just hours after members of the same group in Washington revealed what they said was a previously undisclosed Iranian centrifuge production facility near Tehran — part of Iran’s secret nuclear weapons program.

Camp Ashraf has long served as a sanctuary for members of the anti-Iranian government group known as the People’s Mujahideen Organization of Iran (MEK) — a place the U.S. military vowed to protect shortly after the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

But with only 47,000 U.S. troops still in the country, and a new Shiite-led government in Iraq looking to bolster relations with Iran, the camp is threatened.

A 12-minute video released by the MEK documents the nighttime attack, beginning with images of Iraqi soldiers driving through crowds of civilians and running men over with trucks and armored Humvees. It shows soldiers firing on and killing groups of unarmed men and women. Gaping wounds suffered by survivors are displayed in detail along with images of the dead laid side by side and covered to the neck by white sheets.

The Iraqi general who led the raid claims the shootings came in response to residents pelting his troops with rocks and throwing themselves in front of his military vehicles.

MEK say those same soldiers are still preventing the wounded from getting proper medical treatment.

MEK was designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. after it carried out an assassination campaign targeting American military leaders in Tehran in the 70’s, as well as later attacking Iranian government targets. Since then the group has become better known for revealing secret production facilities related to the Iranian nuclear program, as it did with uranium enrichment facility in Natanz in 2002.

Sen. John Kerry, head of the Foreign Relations Committee, wants the Iraqis to conduct a full investigation and the called the raid “deeply disturbing” and “simply unacceptable.”

Gates commented on the incident while he was in Iraq, saying he was “concerned” with the reports of deaths and injuries.

And State Department spokesman Mark Toner later condemned the attack, but called it a “sovereign” matter for the Iraqis. By law, the U.S. security agreement with Iraq prohibits the U.S. military from intervening.

A number of former U.S. government officials spoke out about the raid during a conference at the Mayflower hotel in Washington Thursday, many of them calling on the State Department to remove the MEK from its list of terrorist groups.

Michael Mukasey, an attorney general under George W. Bush, called the Iraqi’s guarantee in 2003 to protect the group, “worthless.” He said that unless the U.S. removes the MEK from its terror list the killings will continue.

“What has enabled the Iraqi government — acting in the behest of the Iranian regime — and what enables the Iranian regime itself is this continued designation,”

Mukasey said.

Gen. Wesley Clark, the former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, linked the incident at Camp Ashraf to current Arab uprisings in the region.

“How can we hope to help those inside Iran who are seeking a more open and liberated government if we can’t help those in Camp Ashraf who are simply asking for protection and an opportunity to live their lives in peace,?” he asked.

Critics say Iran is seizing on distractions in Libya by backing a Shia uprising in Bahrain and helping Syrian President Bashar Assad crack down on government protesters.

Alireza Jafarzadeh, a spokesman for the MEK and the National Council of Resistance Iran, says the Iranians encouraged the Iraqis to attack Camp Ashraf.

“This is a pure crime committed intentionally by the Iraqi government against the Iranian dissidents to do the bidding for Tehran,” Jafarzadeh said.

The last portion of the video provided by MEK shows a 29 year-old Iranian woman, named Isiyeh Rakhshani, delivering a video message to Congress in 2010. Flash to April 8th where she’s shooting cell phone video of the attack on Ashraf. In the final frame Rakhshani’s mother is seen mourning over her dead body.

I really hated to quote that all; but friends, I wanted you all to see it for yourselves; just what Bush and the Neo-Conservative warmongers in the G.O.P. created. My friends, if that does not sicken you to your core, you do not have a damned soul. In 2003, after the euphoria and outrage over 9/11, the United States of America went into a sovereign nation and invaded it; based on the lies of a man, who they call “Curveball.”

America then proceeded to take a Nation, who’s army had, at best, soviet-era tanks and equipment; and proceeded to give them our very best equipment; and now, they are using it on their own damned people. Anyone who believes that Iraq is a free nation; is either lying to themselves or worse. The United States of America basically ousted one dictator and installed a new one in Iraq. Even now the most pro-war Conservative admits that.

It was indeed “Mission Accomplished.” But this mission that we accomplished, was not what Bush and his Neo-Conservative friends had in mind. Now, there are people in Iraq this day, who have lost family; all because a group of Jacobin Democrats decided to invade a Country and further their warped foriegn policy fantasies.

For every action, there is a reaction. For every action taken by the United States Government and its military there is “blowback.” It is an CIA term, and it is very real. Welcome to the middle east 2011; brought you by internationalist Democrats and Neo-Conservatives. We have no one to blame, but ourselves.

Video:Guest Voice Jack Hunter on Stereotyping the Old South, Plus Tea-O-Cons

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More Great Commentary from Jack Hunter:

And as a Bonus:

Video: Obama’s Libyan War

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Seeing that things are changing with Libya; I thought this to be a be very appropriate video: (Via Reason Hit and Run, and Reason TV)

Just like that, The Arab League turns on Libya Rebels

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The U.S. and the Allies cannot win:

CAIRO (AP) — The head of the Arab League has criticized international strikes on Libya, saying they caused civilian deaths.

The Arab League’s support for a no-fly zone last week helped overcome reluctance in the West for action in Libya. The U.N. authorized not only a no-fly zone but also “all necessary measures” to protect civilians.

Amr Moussa says the military operations have gone beyond what the Arab League backed.

Moussa has told reporters Sunday that “what happened differs from the no-fly zone objectives.” He says “what we want is civilians’ protection not shelling more civilians.”

U.S. and European strikes overnight targeted mainly air defenses, the U.S. military said. Libya says 48 people were killed, including civilians.

via Arab League Criticizes Allied Airstrikes on Libya -NewsMax.

This is what happens, when the United States gets involved in affairs related to the Arab World. We are always the enemy. Further more, they never appreciate what America does, ever. instead they bitch because so-called peaceful citizens get hurt or killed. Cry me a river. 🙄 The United States should have just stay out of the situation in Libya. Those rebels knew the risks and they dared to stand up; and as always, the United States and the western allies came in to bail them out; and now, were once again the bad guys.

When will America ever learn?

I guess that is what happens, when you elect a carbon copy of the previous President.

Video: Las Vegas Boom & Bust – A Preview for Singapore & China?

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This comes via GoldSiver.com:

Wouldn’t it be a good time to invest in Gold and Silver and beat the rush?

Video: The Reality Report: Taking the Neo-Conservatives to the mat!

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In this space, before I post this video; I usually post a disclaimer, because usually, I do not agree with some of the content and ideas presented in this Video report.  However, this week, I am going to forgo the disclaimer. Because a good ninety percent of what is presented here, I absolutely agree with and besides, nothing gives me more joy, than to watch freedom-loving Americans making Neo-Conservative fascists look like the damn fools that they are. Yes, it warms the cackles of my stone cold heart to see those who wish to sell our freedoms out to the altar of “Security” made to look like buffoons.

Very well done gents, very, very, well done. 😀

Having said all that —- here is the synopsis and Video….

Synopsis: In this special CPAC expanded edition of the Reality Report, we go face to face with Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and Newt Gingrich and present the highlights (and lowlights)! ; Gary Franchi runs into former Saturday Night Live star, Victoria Jackson, and interviews CPAC Chair David Keene about the Defender of the Constitution Award. Gary also meets with Jesse Benton, Ron Paul’s Communications Director, to give you the inside scoop on the Ron Paul 2012 Presidential campaign. Jeff Frazee from Young Americans for Liberty joins the show to tell us how he got turned on to Ron Paul’s message. We meet with Congresswoman Nan Hayworth from New York’s 19th district to ask her about her vote for the Patriot Act. We also ask Ron Paul supporters what it is about his message that inspires them. We also take you to the Jordan Page after party for the release of his new album titled “Liberty”. Angie returns to deliver the headlines with a special report on the Young Americans for Freedom and Truth Squad.TV’s confrontation. We’ll read your email, review last week’s poll results and brand a new enemy of the state.

The Video:

Join the discussion at our RTR Group: http://rtr.org/group/745

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Main Websites: http://RTR.org | http://RealityReport.TV

Hope and Freeze?: Wind turbines frozen solid in Northern New Brunswick, Canada

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I literally burst out laughing at this story.

This story comes via The Windsor Star:

FREDERICTON — A $200-million wind farm in northern New Brunswick is frozen solid, cutting off a potential supply of renewable energy for NB Power.

The 25-kilometre stretch of wind turbines, located 70 kilometres northwest of Bathurst, N.B. has been completely shutdown for several weeks due to heavy ice covering the blades.

GDF SUEZ Energy, the company that owns and operates the site, is working to return the windmills to working order, a spokeswoman says.

“We can’t control the weather,” Julie Vitek said in an interview from company headquarters in Houston, Texas. “We’re looking to see if we can cope with it more effectively, through the testing of a couple of techniques.”

She says the conditions in northern New Brunswick have wreaked havoc on the wind farm this winter.

“For us, cold and dry weather is good and that’s what’s typical in the region. Cold and wet weather can be a problem without any warmer days to prompt thawing, which has been the case this year.

“This weather pattern has been particularly challenging.”

Wintery conditions also temporarily shutdown the site last winter, just months after its completion. Some or all of the turbines were offline for several days, with “particularly severe icing” blamed.

The accumulated ice alters the aerodynamics of the blades, rendering them ineffective as airfoils. The added weight further immobilizes the structures.

Vitek says workers are trying to find a way to prevent ice buildup from occurring again in the future. The shutdown has not had any effect on employment at the site, which provides 12 permanent jobs.

In February 2008, Suez was awarded a contract to build a 33-turbine wind farm at Caribou Mountain. NB Power signed a 20-year power purchase agreement for its 99 megawatts of power capacity, which went online in November 2009.

At the time, the project was praised for bringing NB Power to its goal of having 400 megawatts of wind power capacity by 2010. The facility has enough capacity to power about 19,000 homes.

Just another liberal progressive boondoggle. Wind turbines; in the coldest damned place, outside of maybe Alaska, to build these things. One would think that they would have thought ahead to put a heater, like maybe in the blades or motors to keep them warm, like say, in the winter.

Then again, we are talking about progressives here.; who do seem not to be very keen on being able to think past their nose.

I know, it’s Canada. But, it’s still a progressive fairy tale of epic proportions; and this does prove that.

Long-Term Bonds: The Best Possible Investment? Think Again

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A free Club EWI report reveals why bonds do not provide shelter from the storm
December 23, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

TREASURIES — the very name conveys a thing that is secure, protected, and will appreciate over time. Otherwise, it’d be called something like “TRASHeries” or “Mattress Stuffers.” Then, there’s the official seal of the US Department of Treasury: its image of a scale and a key symbolize “balance” and “trust.”

And, finally, there’s the mainstream economic experts who have it on good authority that long-term bonds increase in value during financial instability and uncertainty.

On this, the following news items from November-December 2010 reflect the enduring faith in fixed-income assets as the ultimate safe-havens:

  • “Bonds Tumble On Signs of Economic Recovery” (Reuters)
  • “US Treasury Prices Rise as traders positioned for negative headlines….” (Associated Press)
  • “Treasury’s rise as investors sought shelter in safe haven assets amid rising fears about sovereign debt woes in the eurozone. The slow motion train wreck is likely to play out over year end as each country plays musical chairs with solvency. The market’s concern here is ‘What is next?’ The 10-year Treasury yield will fall if the problems get worse from here.” (Wall Street Journal)

There’s just one problem with this notion: namely, bonds (of any denomination) do NOT have a built-in disaster premium. This is the myth-busting revelation of the latest, free report from Elliott Wave International. The resource titled “The Next Major Disaster Developing For Bond Holders” includes a thoughtful selection of various EWI publications that expose the very real vulnerability of bond markets to economic downturns.

The premier study on the subject comes from Chapter 15 of EWI President Robert Prechter’s book Conquer The Crash by way of this memorable excerpt:

“If there is one bit of conventional wisdom that we hear repeatedly with respect to investing, it is that long-term bonds are the best possible investment [in downturns]. This assertion is wrong. Any bond issued b a borrower who can’t pay goes to zero in a depression. Understand that in a [major contraction], no one knows its depth and almost everyone becomes afraid. That makes investors sell bonds of any issuers that they fear could default. Even when people trust the bonds they own, they are sometimes forced to sell them to raise cash to live on. For this reason, even the safest bonds can go down, at least temporarily, as AAA bonds did in 1931 and 1932.

The first chart (see below) shows what happened to bonds of various grades in the deflationary crash. And the second chart (see below) shows what happened to the Dow Jones 40-bond average, which lost 30% of its value in four years. Observe that the collapse of the early 1930s brought these bonds’ prices below — and their interest rates above — where they were in 1920 near the peak in the intense inflation of the ‘Teens.”


That’s just the tip of this myth-busting report. “The Next Major Disaster” uncovers flaws in other widely-accepted bond lore, including these two assumptions:

  • High -yield bonds rise during economic expansions
  • AND — municipal bonds provide a steady refuge in times of economic stress.

Read more about Robert Prechter’s warnings for holders of municipals and other bonds in his free report: The Next Major Disaster Developing for Bond Holders. Access your free 10-page report now.

Investing Advice: Trading the Holiday Grind

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It’s that time again when volume dries up and prices rise into the new year. A lot of individuals are scrambling to prepare for the holidays, even though we had a year to prepare. The big money has already done most of their year end shuffling and will be taking it easy until January.

The market is overbought and sentiment readings are at extreme levels which in the past have been the start of large sell offs and even bear markets. While I am keeping a close eye for a top, there is not much we can do but stay long stocks and commodities until the market tips its hand and distribution selling is in control. The U.S. federal government is the only wild card going into year end that should be on traders’ radars. They have been doing a great job boosting prices in the equities and commodities market, but can they continue to hold things up when the big money and the proverbial herd start unloading positions in 2011?   — Please, Click here to read the rest.

Personal Advice from ME: If you are small time stock investor, GET OUT NOW!

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…and here is why….

This comes via Gateway Pundit, who is one hell of a great blogger:

The story via the U.K. Telegraph:

US Treasuries last week suffered their biggest two-day sell-off since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. The borrowing costs of the government of the world’s largest economy have now risen by a quarter over the past four weeks.

Such a sharp rise in US benchmark market interest rates matters a lot – and it matters way beyond America. The US government is now servicing $13.8 trillion (£8.7 trilion) in declared liabilities – making it, by a long way, the world’s largest debtor. Around $414bn of US taxpayers’ money went on sovereign interest payments last year – around 4.5 times the budget of America’s Department of Education.

Debt service costs have reached such astronomical levels even though, over the past year and more, yields have been kept historically and artificially low by “quantitative easing (QE)” – in other words, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s virtual printing press. Now borrowing costs are 28pc higher than a month ago, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 3.33pc last week, an already eye-watering debt service burden can only go up.

Few on this side of the Atlantic should feel smug. The eurozone’s ongoing sovereign debt debacle has pushed up Germany’s borrowing costs by 27pc over the last month – to 3.03pc. The market has judged that if Europe’s Teutonic powerhouse wants the single currency to survive, it will ultimately need to raise wads of cash to absorb the mess caused by other member states’ fiscal incontinence…

…Some say that growing signs of a US economic recovery are positive for stocks, which means money is being diverted out of Treasuries, so lowering their price, which pushes up yields. That’s wishful thinking. Sovereign borrowing costs have just surged in the US – and therefore elsewhere – because a politically-wounded President Obama caved-in and extended the Bush-era tax cuts, combining them with a $120bn payroll tax holiday…

…The market is increasingly alarmed at the rate of increase of the US government’s already massive liabilities. America’s government debt is set to expand by a jaw-dropping 42pc over the next few years, reaching $19.6 trillion by 2015 according to Treasury Department estimates presented (amid very little fanfare) to Congress back in June. Since then, government spending has risen even more. So US debt service costs, like those of many other Western nations, are expanding rapidly in terms of both the volumes of sovereign instruments outstanding, and the yields on each bond.

You know what that means? It means that if you are a small time investor; that you need to get out of the Market NOW! This could have a huge impact on the market, and you could lose very big. I do virtual trading and so far, I have done well on my trades. But I am not about to lose my shirt, so, I ordered a sell off of everything. Now the big time guys will be able to afford to ride this out, because they have the wealth to spare. But the small time people will get burned. The best thing I can tell you small times investors, is to dump your shares and put it all into Gold. That would either be into EFT‘s or real actual Gold.

Disclaimer: I do not claim to be a expert on the subject of stocks, trading or even Gold. However, it does stand to reason that when such news as this is report, that it will affect the U.S. markets and the United States financial system. I do however, promote a great investment advice service called Elliotwave. You might want to check it out.

Stock, Gold and Oil Trading Advice: Gold/Silver – Controlling Your Trades, Money & Emotions

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Last week we had typical pre-holiday light volume trading going into US Thanksgiving. The previous week I warned every one to trade with extreme caution because of the light volume and the fact that the market is on the verge of a sizable drop for both stocks and commodities. Any price action could not be taken seriously because of the light volume. We will not know until later this coming week what the big money wants to do… Buy or Sell, also what the manipulators will do… Seems like there are a lot of wild cards out there with Europe issues and both unemployment and payroll numbers out on Friday morning.

Below are a few charts showing my intermediate term outlook for gold and silver.

Gold & Silver Futures – Daily Chart
You can see both metal are showing a possible reversal head and shoulders pattern. While they have yet to confirm and close below the neck line we must be aware of this pattern and the risk/potential it provides us with. Both metals are still in an uptrend but showing signs of weakness.

US Dollar Index – Weekly Chart
This chart is not really that helpful for trading stocks, commodities or options right now but I wanted to post it because it allows me to show you how I analyze the market and my trades.

As you can see, the past 3 weeks have been in a strong uptrend reaching the first resistance level. The point of this chart is to show you that if you step out to the next longer time frame you can get a solid feeling of where an investment will find major support and resistance levels. Any investment not matter if it’s a stock, commodity or currency, if the price is trading in the middle of a large range like this chart you should not be taking large positions because it almost becomes a 50/50 bet on the market which is not a good winning strategy unless you are very experienced at managing your trades and money.

If you are going to trade then you want to focus on the underlying trend and you do that by looking at the next larger time frame. For example: if you focus on trading the daily chart, then you must step back each week and review the weekly chart to be sure you are trading with the underlying trend which is up for the dollar right now.

Weekend Trading Ideas:
Tuesday morning we saw the SP500 gap lower and continue to sell off. Traders started panicking out of their long positions and we could see it using the intraday market internals charts, which I cover each morning in the pre-market trading videos. Me being a contrarian (buying into market fear, selling into market strength) I used that high level of fear in the market along with the expected light volume holiday week ahead as an excuse to book profits near the lows on SP500 using the SDS bear fund allowing us to profit from the falling market. I feel we are going to have some crazy moves on the markets going into year end and it should be a lot of fun if done correctly.

Trading in general is a very difficult task especially if you are doing it for a living and planning on using your monthly income to pay bills, salaries etc… We all know the stress which comes with trading and if do not have a solid trading strategy, rules and cannot properly manage yourself (emotions) then you are most likely running into problems like over-trading, getting shaken out of trades easily, and taking bigger risks than your account can handle. Each of these cause more traders to blow up their accounts and big up on trading.

I am giving away my book on how you can control your trades, money and emotions. This short and to the point guide is full of my trading techniques, tips and thoughts which will help you get a handle of your emotions turning the market noise into music.

—

For great stock, gold and oil trading tips; Please, click here to sign up for this great service for the day trader!

Stock Advice: S&P 500, Treasuries, Gold, & Dollar are At Key Price Levels

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A new article by a new author:

Thursday was another example of Mr. Market playing games with traders and investors as equities and precious metals took part in a strong rally. Some market prognosticators noted short-term oversold conditions across the board while others discussed the potential for a strong reversal that could potentially take out recent highs. In addition to the regular banter, to the average retail investor the market sure looks rigged when the government decides to sell a large stake in a massive IPO offering and a shaky tape suddenly becomes stronger than garlic.

There is a lot going on in the news as of late, and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts looms large on the minds of many, particularly small business owners. So the real question becomes, what should traders be watching or paying attention to before the light volume Thanksgiving week? The answer is simple, watch the tape! The market will provide plenty of clues and it will eventually tip its hand, experienced traders will wait for this process to unfold.

At this point in time, it is a bit early to begin making predictions as to which direction the equities market will go. What we do know is that the market was oversold in the short-term, so this could be a pause before prices turn lower. In contrast, this could be the beginning of another bullish move breaking recent highs on its way to a “Santa Claus” rally. My stance is neutral at this point in time; S&P 1200 should offer significant overhead resistance while S&P 1170 / 50 period moving average is near term support. The chart listed below illustrates these key levels:

S&P 500

If price were to break out above S&P 1200 on strong volume, it is likely that we will see a retest of the recent highs around the 1220 area. Consequently, if price tests the S&P 1170 area and fails price will likely be magnetized to the 1140-1150 area. We will have our answers in due time, but until a definite direction is known, patience is warranted.


Treasuries

As discussed in my previous article, the ProShares Ultra Short 20+ year treasury ETF (TBT) bounced off of the 36 level and put on a short lived rally only to settle toward the bottom 1/3 of its recent price range. After the recent breakout, it would be constructive to see TBT consolidate before confirming a direction. The chart below shows the key levels on TBT:

U.S. Dollar

Instead of illustrating a gold chart, let us focus our attention on the U.S. Dollar Index. The chart below shows the dollar has pulled back and is now testing the 50 period moving average. I am anticipating a retest of the recent breakout over double tops and this key level is illustrated below. If support holds firm, higher prices for the U.S. Dollar in the near term will be likely.

The Contrarian Trade

Thursday’s price action in the S&P 500 offers a great example of the power of options, which are traditionally overlooked by most equity traders or investors. While I did not personally enter this trade, I did enter a short position with tight stops around the S&P 1197 level using futures contracts for a short term trade. I was looking for a short term decline which we subsequently received in the aftermarket and my limit orders were triggered.

The option trade that I discussed with one of my trading buddies and mentor, involved getting short Apple (AAPL) when its price was around $309.50/share. While I did not place this trade as I felt I had plenty of short side exposure via my e-mini futures position, the trade would have worked quite well. So the trade listed below is not a recommendation, but an illustration of how options can be a contrarian traders’ best friend.

AAPL has been trading in the $300 – $320 per share range for several weeks having broken out above $320 only to be smacked down into the range. During the recent selloff, AAPL crossed down through the $300 level only to encounter strong buying that pushed it above the key $300 area by the close of trade that day. Thursday’s rally had AAPL trading above $309.50/share and the 20 period moving average was right around the 310 level as can be seen from the chart below.

The 20 period moving average provides an adept option trader with a key level which he/she can define the risk of a short position using options. Through the utilization of a contingent stop based on AAPL’s stock price, a trader using this setup could place a stop around the $311.25 area to define their ultimate risk. As of Thursday, the AAPL weekly options that expire November 26 began trading.

The trade listed below is a put debit spread:

Buy 1 AAPL Nov. 26 310 Weekly Put – $5.00 / contract based on Thursday’s close
Sell 1 AAPL Nov. 26 300 Weekly Put – $1.47 / contract based on Thursday’s close

AAPL stock closed around $308.43 / Share

The profitability chart reflecting this trade is below:

The maximum risk this trade has per leg was around $350, however through the use of the contingent stop around $311.25, the risk per leg is around $150. The maximum gain would be $650 per leg if at expiration in one week AAPL was trading below $300/share. In the first hour of trading, AAPL sold off below $306 per share. If an option trader had more than one contract on, he/she could take partial profits and place a stop at the entry price insuring a winning trade and allowing room for the trade to run.

Obviously the trader may want to adjust his/her stop based on market conditions, but this is simply an example of what can be accomplished with options. Once the trader understands how to determine the risk that an option trade assumes, he/she can build trade constructions to fit nearly any trading style or strategy. For a contrarian trader, options offer an unbelievable opportunity to mitigate risk and maximize profits. Learning how to trade options does take time and effort, but the potential returns options offer when they are used appropriately are unparalleled.

Get more great articles like this, by going here.

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MarketWatch engages in Federal Reserve propaganda

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This is pretty sad considering who owns the website:

Then there is this:

Gold has become highly prized bling, as anxious and astute buyers alike, from hedge-fund players to central bankers, flock to the “currency of fear.” Gold at around $1,400 an ounce is almost double what it commanded two years ago, and gold’s price is up almost 25% so far this year alone.

It’s been a great ride. Except gold is a bad investment.

Gold’s feverish run has made a lot of people a lot of money, and though the rally has taken a breather in the last few days, there’s no shortage of flag-waving supporters who claim gold is on a march to $1,600, $1,800, $2,000 and beyond. After all, gold is still well below its 1980 peak, when it was worth around $2,300 an ounce in today’s dollars.

….and this:

“Mercury poisoning,” is the answer from Barry Ritholtz, the very outspoken CEO and director of equity research at Fusion IQ, when asked where Zoellick’s idea might have come from.

Zoellick, also a former Treasury official in the Reagan administration and managing director at Goldman Sachs, made his suggestion in an op-ed in the Financial Times last Sunday, just days ahead of the Group of 20 major countries meeting in Seoul.

The suggestion was made to world leaders in order to address “global imbalances,” the diplomatic expression being used to refer to the impact of China’s vastly undervalued renminbi on other countries’ competitiveness.

All of the above is pure garbage. Gold is a hedge against inflation and the dollar. Do not listen to the Statists who want to seize all of the gold and give you a worthless dollar.

By the way, here is some SOUND investment advice pertaining to Gold:

There have been some major trend changes recently and it looks as though more investments are about to follow. The real question though is… Are You Ready To Take Advantage Of It?

It has been an exciting ride to say the least with the equities and metals bull market and the plummeting dollar. But it looks as though their time is up, or at least for a few weeks. Traders and investors will slowly pull money off the table to lock in gains or cut losses and re-evaluate the overall market condition before stepping back up to the plate and taking another swing.

Below are a few charts showing some possible money making trade ideas in the weeks ahead.

TBT 20+ Treasury Note Inverse Fund

This fund moves inverse to the price of the 20yr T.N’s also known as bonds. Looking at the chart you can see the recent reversal which took place. We had a great entry point shortly after this reversal took place using my low risk setup strategy.

Falling bond prices are considered to have a negative impact on equities because it implies that interest rates may start rising which means more investors will pull money out of stocks and put that money into a safe interest earning investment. You will typically see bonds change direction before equities. That being said the chart below is an inverse fund, so when this bond fund goes up, it means actually indicates bond yields are falling. I will admit these inverse funds really throw my brain for a loop at time… I prefer the good old days, buying long and selling short… so simple and clean… —- Read the rest Here

I ask you, go read the rest of that; listen to people, like the man at this link, who want to see you make and keep your money. Not force you to trust in an unsound money system, like the United States Dollar.  If you are not interested in FTS’s and would to buy actual Gold, then try this link here.

In fact, here is a video that explain why you should own Gold and Silver:

Is it not just good common sense to have a backup plan? Do not delay, invest in Gold and Silver today.

Please Note: In the interest of full disclosure — There are links in this blog posted that if click on and product bought or signed up for, will result in the compensation of myself. This will come with no price increase to the customer at all.  Think of it, as an easy way to support this blog and yours truly.


Stock, Oil and Gold trading advice: How long and how high for Gold, and how to play it

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Regular readers of my articles on Gold over the past few years know that I have a theory on this Gold Bull market. In summary, it’s that we are in a 13 Fibonacci year uptrend that started in 2001, and now we are in the final 4 years of that uptrend. It is in this last 5 year window that I theorized started in August of 2009 that investors really get involved. As the crowd comes in, prices push higher and higher, and then more and more investors come in and so forth.

The very recent rally has pushed us up to about $1,420 per ounce, on the way to my projected $1480-$1520 pivot highs on this leg from the $1040 area in February of this year. Subscribers to my TMTF newsletter have learned about Elliott Wave Theory and how to properly apply it to benefit from both the ups and the downs in various parts of the markets, as well as commodities and precious metals. If I am correct, we are in the 3rd wave up of 5 total waves from the August 2009 $900 per ounce levels. The first leg went from $900 to $1225, the second leg was corrective to $1,040, and now this 3rd wave should complete at around 150% of the 1st wave’s amplitude. In English, the probabilities are for Gold to continue higher to about $1527 per ounce, possibly a tad higher if the typical Elliott Wave patterns take hold, and also assuming again that I am correct in my read of those patterns.

One of the better ways to play this next 4 years of upside with intervening corrections is to look at prospect generator companies. These are Gold, Silver, and Copper explorers that do the early field work in identifying prospects for drilling. They then farm out these projects to willing partners and retain equity stakes and /or percentiles of the project itself. This reduces their need for capital while retaining nice upside for shareholders, and diversifying. When you are a tad long in this current wave pattern’s tooth, this is way to stay onboard, but not go overboard. I have personal ownership positions in a few of these types of companies, and my subscribers are aware of the few that we really prefer. Should one of the projects not pan out, you are not placing your entire shareholder bet on one drill project, and yet if they hit on a few, the upside can be substantial.  – Read the Rest

Oil, Gold and Stock Advice: The Market Continues The FOMC March Upward and Crowd Patterns

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With the election over and congress divided, it may be difficult for the president to get much done. None of this will take affect until the near year but traders are asking the big question… Will the government work together as a team or will it be a stalemate?

Today’s whipsaw action after the FOMC statement shook things up as it always does. We saw gold, silver, the dollar, SP500 and bond prices go haywire. It took about 30 minutes for the market to digest this news in that time a lot of people lost money because of the wide price swings. Trading around news, I find, is a net losing trade over the long run and I advise never to do it. Rather wait for a trend to form and trade any low risk setups that come your way.

I truly believe that the market has already priced in most news and events which unfold, and that news tends to agree with the overall trend of the market. Of course there will be short term blips on the charts from the news, but they tend to be minor setbacks in the underlying market trend. That being said, the trend is our friend, and while so many are trying to pick a top in the equities market it makes me cringe because they are fighting the trend and the Fed.

Read The Rest Here

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In my recent forecast updates for my subscribers and also in my free articles online, I have expounded on the virtues of Elliott Wave Theory, which I use as my linchpin for my short and long term views. To wit, back in August 2009 I made it clear that we would enter a five year period of a massive move up in both Gold and Gold Stocks. Gold was $900 an ounce at the time, and is now at $1360 an ounce. I made that forecast based on human behavioral patterns that go back centuries. Crowds love to all act like a swarm of bees flying together. Everyone hates stocks or sectors when they are down, and the crowd loves them when they are up or going up. Investors like to chase stocks and sectors when they are up high and running near parabolic, but they don’t like to buy large dips or consolidations ahead of moves. Once you learn that Elliott Wave patterns and a few other indicators sprinkled in can give you a heads up on when the crowd is about to jump in, you can basically front run the crowds.

I digress and go back to the Gold Bull Market. The reason I knew in August of 2009 that from $900 Gold we would enter a five year “massive” Bull Run is due to crowd patterns. To refresh, I see Gold as being in a Fibonacci 13 year cycle up that started in 2001. The first five years not too many investors participate in the Bull Run because the prior 20 did nothing. By the time everyone realized in 2006 that Gold mutual funds had compounded 30% a year for five years, it was too late to jump in. Of course, that is when everyone started buying Gold mutual funds and stocks. The problem is the first move was over, and we had 3 Fibonacci years of chop with no net gains. The crowd gives up around the summer of 2009, and that is when I forecasted a huge five year move to come. So far Gold is up over 50% in 13 months and Gold Stocks are up well north of that. The junior stocks started expanding in volume and price months ago, and that should have been yet another wake up call to investors.

Read the Rest Here

Get ALL of the gold, silver, oil and ETF trading advice here!

Stock and Oil Trading Advice: Gold, Oil, SPX Trading Around the Election

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This week we have a major wild card (Election) happening on Tuesday. Most of you know I don’t get involved with political discussion for several reasons… one of them being that I am Canadian “an outsider” looking in.

That being said, it looks and feels as though the market has been propped up and oil has been held down from an invisible force. Lots of theories going around saying higher stock and lower/stable oil prices will give voters the warm fuzzies to keep the current leaders elected… I prefer trading the charts and not getting caught in the Wall St. hype.

Read the Rest

 

News: Mid-Week Market Report on SP500, Oil, Gold & Dollar

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Some interesting news:

Wednesday the market didn’t tell us anything new. The equities market is still over extended on the daily chart but the market is refusing to break down. Each time there has been seen selling in the market over the past two weeks, the market recovers. Equities and the dollar have been trading with an inverse relationship and it seems to drop every in value each selling pressure enters the market, which naturally lifts stocks.

That being said, sellers are starting to come into the market at these elevated levels and it’s just a matter of time before we see a healthy pullback/correction. The past 10 session volatility has been creeping up as equities try to sell off. There will be a point when a falling dollar is not bullish for stocks but until then it looks like printing of money will continue devaluing of the dollar to help lift the stock market. Some type of pullback is needed if this trend is to continue and the markets can only be held up for so long.

Below is a chart of the USO oil fund and the SPY index fund. Crude has a tendency to provide an early warning sign for the strength of the economy. As you can see from the April top, oil started to decline well before the equities market did. This indicated a slow down was coming.

The recent equities rally which started in late August has been strong. But take a look at the price of oil. It has traded very flat during that time indicating the economy has not really picked up, nor does it indicate any growth in the coming months. This rally just may be coming to an end shortly.

Read the rest… Here.