Bob Prechter’s Conquer The Crash reveals whether the Fed really can rescue the US economy
January 27, 2011
By Elliott Wave International
Since its creation in 1913, the primary intended role of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has been that of protector. In theory, the central bank was bestowed with the power to shape monetary policy in a way that would keep both booms and busts in check. The two main tools at its disposal — interest rates and money creation — would provide a “ceiling of normalcy” above expansions AND a “net of safety” below contractions.
To this day, the financial mainstream holds great faith in the Fed’s ability to fulfill its save-the-day duties — as these recent news items make plain:
“Why Raising Fed Funds Rate Is Positive For Equities.” (Seeking Alpha)
“Fed’s Moves Lift All Asset Classes.” (Associated Press)
“US Stocks Erasing Losses: The aggressive moves of the Fed have been an important driver for the stabilization of stock prices.” (Bloomberg)
But of all the variables the Fed creators took into account, there’s one glaring factor they neglected to consider: Namely, it cannot force consumers to spend, creditors to lend, or businesses to borrow. The events of 2007-2009 “credit crunch” and the subsequent “Great Recession” made that obvious. Remember how the government was upset at banks for sitting on the bailout funds instead of lending them out to consumers? And consumers weren’t exactly lining up on the street to get a loan, either.
The Fed’s inability to change social mood is the central theme in Chapter 13 of EWI President Bob Prechter’s NY Times business bestseller book Conquer the Crash. There, Bob describes the Fed’s strategy of lowering the federal funds rate to stimulate spending to be as effective as “pushing on a string.” Writes Bob:
“The primary basis for today’s belief in perpetual prosperity and inflation with an occasional recession is what I call the ‘Potent Directors Fallacy.’ It is nearly impossible to find a treatise on macroeconomics today that does not assert or assume that the Federal Reserve Board has learned to control both our money and our economy. Many believe that it also possesses the immense power to manipulate the stock market. The very idea that it can do these things is false.”
And so begins one of the most groundbreaking studies into the very real INABILITY of the Fed to fell the great bears of economic declines, or to feed the great bulls of economic vigor.
The best part is, you can read Chapter 13 of Conquer the Crash in its entirety FREE via a Club EWI resource “You Can Survive And Prosper In A Deflationary Depression.” The free report also includes SEVEN other chapters of Conquer the Crash that shed equal light on some of the most misleading notions of mainstream economic wisdom.
Don’t stay in the dark. Read all 8 chapters today by joining the rapidly expanding free Club EWI community today. Here’s what you’ll learn:
Chapter 10: Money, Credit and the Federal Reserve Banking System
Chapter 13: Can the Fed Stop Deflation?
Chapter 23: What To Do With Your Pension Plan
Chapter 28: How to Identify a Safe Haven
Chapter 29: Calling in Loans and Paying off Debt
Chapter 30: What You Should Do If You Run a Business
Chapter 32: Should You Rely on Government to Protect You?
Chapter 33: A Short List of Imperative “Do’s” and Crucial “Don’ts”
If that is not enough to wet your whistle, how an radio ad of Chris Christie trying to lure Illinois Businesses to….you guessed it, New Jersey: (Via Eyeblast)
I’ll tell you, this might just the guy for the Republican 2012 nomination. The office of the President of the United States is a heavy job. But, isn’t that right up Christie’s alley?
U.S. Rep. Mike Pence shut the door today on a run for the presidency, but left wide open the likelihood that he’ll seek a different office: Governor of Indiana.
“In the choice between seeking national office and serving Indiana in some capacity, we choose Indiana,” Pence, R-Columbus, said of himself and wife Karen in a letter being sent to supporters. “We will not seek the Republican nomination for president in 2012.”
He said he would make a decision “later this year” about what his next political step is, but by not running for president it is considered a virtual certainty that he will run for the GOP nomination for governor. While he could, instead, run for a seventh term in Congress, that’s not considered likely given that Pence gave up the job that would have made him the fourth-highest ranking Republican in the House after the November elections, in order to focus on other political opportunities.
Needless to say, a big reason for the “Draft Pence” push in recent weeks was some social cons being uncomfortable with Palin or Huckabee as the nominee. Where do those people turn now?
To be quite honest, if all the social cons have to choose from is Huckabee and Palin; then that speaks to the sorry condition of the GOP in this day and age. I would say Mitt Romney, but the Evangelical Christians loathe him. As a Fundamentalist Baptist, I can tell you that I am not too big on the idea of a Mormon being in the White House at all. What I really believe personally is that the Republican Party needs to focus on fiscal issues and leave the social cons out of the mix in 2012. Because honestly, that crowd is so darned fickle anyways, not to mention the rank hypocrisy that comes from those ranks. I mean, just look at Palin, rode in on the white horse of social Conservatism and a few weeks later, her daughter comes up pregnant.
The simple solution is Tim Pawlenty. He is a fiscal Conservative, he is not a extremist and his family is not a reality show. I personally believe he would be a good choice for the G.O.P. in 2012. Here is hoping that Tim runs in 2012, because for once, I would like to vote for a Republican, that actually acts like one and not some made beltway boy or some right wing extremist or a talk show reality star. I want a real CEO type, that will make decisions to help small business and people like me find jobs again.
We need to put America back to work. We cannot do that with a shrieking harpy glamor model who’s got a reality show; that somehow believes that she is entitled to be President, because of her sex organs —- nor can we do that with a Democrat with a Bible who is prone to extremism.
Please note: The posting on this video does NOT constitute support for all of the views therein. It is posted for your education and information.
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Synopsis: In the 78th edition of the Reality Report, Gary Franchi draws the direct parallels America shares with Hitler’s Germany and provides the solution to avoiding their terrible fate. We take a look at Ron Paul’s Texas Straight Talk where he discusses what a new found interest in the Constitution could mean for America. CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff tells us why the Chinese modeled their currency after the U.S. dollar. We also hear from the former U.S. military analyst who is responsible for leaking the Pentagon Papers, Daniel Ellsberg. He explains the recent war on whistle-blowers. Chris Mathews latest hypocrisy is revealed and Angie breaks down the news. As always we take a dip into the mailbag, reveal the results from last weeks viewer poll and brand a new Enemy of the State.
But 8 million homes are today in foreclosure or their owners are delinquent in their mortgage payments. Some 5.5 million are occupied by families whose mortgages are at least 20 percent higher than the value of the property, making them prime candidates for foreclosure.
This weekend, Bank of America reported fourth-quarter losses of $1.6 billion and a 2010 yearly loss of $3.6 billion. Its credit card unit took a $10 billion write-down, and its home loan business is still reeling from the fallout of the exploded housing bubble.
Now, facing trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see, House Republicans are balking at agreeing to raise the debit limit of $14.3 trillion, though the national debt just crossed the $14 trillion mark.
Elliott Wave International’s Jeffrey Kennedy explains many ways to use this basic tool
January 19, 2011
By Elliott Wave International
The following trading lesson has been adapted from Jeffrey Kennedy’s eBook, Trading the Line – 5 Ways You Can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading Decisions. Now through February 7, you can download the 14-page eBook free. Learn more here.
“How to draw a trendline” is one of the first things people learn when they study technical analysis. Typically, they quickly move on to more advanced topics and too often discard this simplest of all technical tools.
Yet you’d be amazed at the value a simple line can offer when you analyze a market. As Jeffrey Kennedy, Elliott Wave International’s Chief Commodity Analyst, puts it:
“A trendline represents the psychology of the market, specifically, the psychology between the bulls and the bears. If the trendline slopes upward, the bulls are in control. If the trendline slopes downward, the bears are in control. Moreover, the actual angle or slope of a trendline can determine whether or not the market is extremely optimistic or extremely pessimistic.”
In other words, a trendline can help you identify the market’s trend. Consider this example in the price chart of Google.
That one trendline — drawn between the lows in 2004 and the lows in 2005 — provided support for a number of retracements over the next two years.
That’s pretty basic. But there are many more ways to draw trendlines. When a market is in a correction, you can draw a trendline and then draw a parallel line: in turn, these two parallel lines can create a channel that often “contains” the corrective price action. When price breaks out of this channel, there’s a good chance the correction is over and the main trend has resumed. Here’s an example in a chart of Soybeans. Notice how the upper trendline provided support for the subsequent move.
For more free trading lessons on trendlines, download Jeffrey Kennedy’s free 14-page eBook, Trading the Line – 5 Ways You Can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading Decisions. It explains the power of simple trendlines, how to draw them, and how to determine when the trend has actually changed. Download your free eBook.
I swear, sometimes I feel sorry for the President. I know it sounds strange. But I do. Check out his op-ed:
For two centuries, America’s free market has not only been the source of dazzling ideas and path-breaking products, it has also been the greatest force for prosperity the world has ever known. That vibrant entrepreneurialism is the key to our continued global leadership and the success of our people.
But throughout our history, one of the reasons the free market has worked is that we have sought the proper balance. We have preserved freedom of commerce while applying those rules and regulations necessary to protect the public against threats to our health and safety and to safeguard people and businesses from abuse.
From child labor laws to the Clean Air Act to our most recent strictures against hidden fees and penalties by credit card companies, we have, from time to time, embraced common sense rules of the road that strengthen our country without unduly interfering with the pursuit of progress and the growth of our economy.
Sometimes, those rules have gotten out of balance, placing unreasonable burdens on business—burdens that have stifled innovation and have had a chilling effect on growth and jobs. At other times, we have failed to meet our basic responsibility to protect the public interest, leading to disastrous consequences. Such was the case in the run-up to the financial crisis from which we are still recovering. There, a lack of proper oversight and transparency nearly led to the collapse of the financial markets and a full-scale Depression — Read the rest @ Barack Obama: Toward a 21st-Century Regulatory System – WSJ.com
The reason I feel sorry for the President is this; from what I have read, on both sides of the political fence —- both side hate this, for some reason. The right says that the President says that Obama is just consolidating regulation, the left says that Obama is moving to the right. I mean, good grief people — can not the man just get credit for doing something right?
Again, I hate to be the one in the crowd to tell both sides, but I will — In November of 2008, the American people, in record numbers, elected a man to be different than George W. Bush. Millions of people cast thier hopes and dreams on one man. Now he might not be the perfect person that many on the far left assumed that he was; but the man is doing the very best that he can. What people have to realize is this, the President is the President of the United States of America, not the President of the Democratic Party. President Barack Obama represents all of us; Not just a select few.
I think that everyone; right, center, left and even middle of the road — ought to just take a step back, breathe a little and let the President do his job. The President might not do exactly what everyone wants him to do. But he will do what he was elected to do and that is Govern this Country fairly and according to the precepts set forth by the Constitution. Forget the hype and stupidity that is being promoted on the Fox News Channel and on the Neo-Con Blogs and some of the even more sillier nonsense on MSNBC and the left wing Blogs. President Barack Obama only has as much power, as the Constitution allows him to have.
Further more, I find it ironic, that very same people that worked to elect Barack Obama President and bring change of any sort to this Country are now the one’s bitching and griping because President Barack Obama is not catering to the special interests of everyone in the beltway and beyond.
The local liberal media around here is absolutely sickening. They know no bounds at all; smearing a dead man and not only that, someone who owned his own business. This is confirmed by reading the comments on The Detroit News and Free Press as well.
Novi— A man apparently killed his wife and two young sons Friday, then drove a few miles away and killed himself by breathing in poisonous fumes from a charcoal grill he had placed in his car, police said.
About 11:30 a.m., Novi police responded to the home of Mark and Jennifer Schons on Applebrooke Drive near Nine Mile and Napier roads because friends of 38-year-old Jennifer Schons were concerned that her two sons had not shown up for school. Schons, who was having marital problems, had missed a scheduled appointment with a friend, police said.
Shortly after noon, police entered the home and found three bodies in separate bedrooms, including Tynan, 6, and Camden, 4.
Initial police reports were that all died from gunshot wounds, but Novi Police Chief David Molloy said late Friday that was inaccurate. He wouldn’t comment on their cause of death.
Molloy called the deaths “the act of a madman.”
The couple were considering divorce, he said.
A typical open and shut case of a mad man gone crazy right?
Perhaps not. Let’s look a little closer…. Buried in the lead of this story, is this:
Their party supply store on East Grand River in Howell recently failed; Jennifer Schons was a paint engineer for General Motors for 14 years, working in Warren. They filed for bankruptcy in December, claiming $581,000 in debt.
Of course, the paper just had to get a shot of those rich white people’s house:
First off, let me say this; I do not excuse this man’s actions. What he did was absolutely horrible. Ending the lives to two kids, ages 4 and 6 is inexcusable. But the anti-Business, Anti-White bias on this story is unbelievable. For all these idiots know; this man most likely did this, because of the failing economy; which was brought on by the liberal Democrats who sought to game the system, by socially engineering the system. The man bit off more than he could chew, and most likely the thought of him losing everything and his wife, and children — were just more than he could bear. To some people; especially those who have been wildly successful, going broke or losing it all, is a embarrassment to the point of wanting to die.
What really makes me want to throw up are the asinine comments at the Detroit News site:
That’s what happens when you listen to too much conservative talk radio.
There is a Christian lesson here. People that do stuff like this, just have no hope. That hope is found in Jesus Christ. But the money is the man thought here:
But godliness with contentment is great gain. For we brought nothing into this world, and it is certain we can carry nothing out. And having food and raiment let us be therewith content. But they that will be rich fall into temptation and a snare, and into many foolish and hurtful lusts, which drown men in destruction and perdition. For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows. But thou, O man of God, flee these things; and follow after righteousness, godliness, faith, love, patience, meekness. Fight the good fight of faith, lay hold on eternal life, whereunto thou art also called, and hast professed a good profession before many witnesses. I give thee charge in the sight of God, who quickeneth all things, and before Christ Jesus, who before Pontius Pilate witnessed a good confession; That thou keep this commandment without spot, unrebukeable, until the appearing of our Lord Jesus Christ: Which in his times he shall shew, who is the blessed and only Potentate, the King of kings, and Lord of lords; Who only hath immortality, dwelling in the light which no man can approach unto; whom no man hath seen, nor can see: to whom be honour and power everlasting. Amen. Charge them that are rich in this world, that they be not highminded, nor trust in uncertain riches, but in the living God, who giveth us richly all things to enjoy; That they do good, that they be rich in good works, ready to distribute, willing to communicate; Laying up in store for themselves a good foundation against the time to come, that they may lay hold on eternal life. —- (1 Timothy 6:6-19 KJV)
Obviously this man never read this.
This is also a sign of the times, as spoken of, by the Bible — Here the Word of the Lord Jesus Christ:
“And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring; Men’s hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken. And then shall they see the Son of man coming in a cloud with power and great glory. And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh. And he spake to them a parable; Behold the fig tree, and all the trees; When they now shoot forth, ye see and know of your own selves that summer is now nigh at hand. So likewise ye, when ye see these things come to pass, know ye that the kingdom of God is nigh at hand.” — (Luke 21:25-31 KJV)
The moral of this story is this; this man and his family owned a business, which failed, they had obviously lived well beyond their means and when it all came crashing down around him. He could not handle it and chose Murder and Suicide. That is because this family had no hope. Which only comes in Jesus Christ. We can expect to see more of this as time goes on.
For what it is worth; I happen to know that area very well. It is a upper middle class and yes, very white part of Southeastern Michigan area. Novi, Rochester Hills; where there are multi-million dollar homes — is all up in that area. Again, while this is a tragic event; what is even more tragic is the bias of the liberal media and also, it is a lesson in what is coming to America in the not-so-distant future, if America does not fix this broken economy. Not everyone has the hope in Christ and not everyone can cope with losing everything.
Former House Majority Leader Tom Delay, R-Texas, was sentenced on Monday to three years in prison for conspiracy to commit money laundering.
The sentence came after Delay was convicted in November of trying to illegally influence elections in the Lone Star State.
In a 10 minute speech to Senior Judge Pat Priest, Delay insisted he did nothing wrong.
“I can’t be remorseful for something I don’t think I did,” Delay said, adding that accountants and lawyers checked everything he did.
“This criminalization of politics is very dangerous. It’s dangerous to our system. Just because somebody disagrees with you they got to put you in jail, bankrupt you, destroy your family,” he told Priest.
However, the prosecutor in the case saw the matter differently.
“I think Tom Delay said it best. He said that he was arrogant,” Assistant District Attorney Gary Cobb said.
“His statement was an extremely arrogant statement where he refused to accept responsibility, refused to show any remorse for the offense of which he’s been convicted of,” Cobb added.
I happen to see this a little differently than Tom Delay. I believe there is another motivation factor here; and that factor is race. This is nothing more, than a political and racial watch hunt by a black liberal Democrat who wants to make a name for himself by going after and bringing down a White Conservative Republican. I have information in my possession from well-placed anonymous sources, e-mails from this man saying that he was going to bring down Tom Delay and some very nasty racist words were used to describe Mr. Delay.
It is a sad day in America when out of control liberal blacks can attack, smear and persecute White Americans for crimes that they did not commit.
One of the fiercest gun-control advocates in Congress, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-N.Y.), pounced on the shooting massacre in Tucson Sunday, promising to introduce legislation as soon as Monday targeting the high-capacity ammunition the gunman used.
McCarthy ran for Congress after her husband was gunned down and her son seriously injured in a shooting in 1993 on a Long Island commuter train.
“My staff is working on looking at the different legislation fixes that we might be able to do and we might be able to introduce as early as tomorrow,” McCarthy told POLITICO in a Sunday afternoon phone interview.
Gun control activists cried it was time to reform weapons laws in the United States, almost immediately after a gunman killed six and injured 14 more, including Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, in Arizona on Saturday.
Many said that people with a history of mental instability, like the alleged shooter, Jared Lee Loughner, should not be able to buy a gun — and no one should be able to buy stockpiles of ammunition used by the 22-year-old assailant.
McCarthy said she plans to confer with House Speaker John Boehner and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to see “if we can work something through” in the coming week.
McCarthy’s spokesman confirmed the legislation will target the high-capacity ammunition clips the Arizona gunman allegedly used in the shooting, but neither he or the congresswoman offered any further details.
“Again, we need to look at how this is going to work, to protect people, certainly citizens, and we have to look at what I can pass,” McCarthy said. “I don’t want to give the NRA – excuse the pun – the ammunition to come at me either.”
I understand her husband getting killed and he kids hurt in a shooting. But is it really necessary to impose her idiotic will on the American people?
Of course, unless something major changes; this bill will never, ever make it to the President’s desk. The Democrats tried this whole thing back during the Clinton era and ended up paying for it dearly during the elections. They fought this battle —- and ultimately lost. So, I expect that this bill will be treated as such.
What will be interesting to note is whether the Conservative in Congress will stick to their principles ….or will they go the Neo-Conservative route and sell out their principles to the liberals, who want to strip our freedoms in the name of safety? Remember the only difference between a big Government liberal and a Big Government Conservative Neo-Con is the type and names of their special interest groups; there are others, but I do not want this article to be too long. 😉
What really needs to happen, is some freedom loving American needs to challenge Rep. Carolyn McCarthy at the ballot box, come election time. Because we just cannot allow these far-leftist loons to use a sad situation like this, to rob peace loving, and law abiding citizens of the United States of American of the freedoms that they hold dear.
It is a often used phrase among second amendment advocates, that “Gun Control is less about guns and more about Control.” This attempt by this far leftist loon proves that beyond a shadow of a doubt.
America is watching congress, act wisely; we voted you in — we can and will, vote you out.
Normally, I would not touch a story like this; but this one sticks out a bit:
WASHINGTON (AP) — First, fiery packages sent to top officials in Maryland were opened, revealing an angry message complaining of the state’s terrorism tip line. Then, a mailing addressed to the nation’s homeland security chief ignited with a similar flash of fire and smoke at a D.C. postal processing facility.
While authorities have not said if the latest parcel contained a note, they did say the three packages were alike. The targeting of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano also seemed to echo anger expressed by the mailer of the first two.
Napolitano launched a nationwide “see something, say something” campaign in July, and her recorded voice can be heard in Washington-area subway stations, reminding commuters to report suspicious behavior. The program expanded last month to include more than 230 Walmarts across the country.
The Maryland packages had an explicit message, railing against highway signs urging motorists to report suspicious activity by calling a toll-free number. The message read: “Report suspicious activity! Total Bull—-! You have created a self fulfilling prophecy.”
This is one of those blog entries that I do not like having to write —- but because I am Christian and because I happen to believe that anarchy is wrong — I feel the need to write about it.
Contrary to what most radicals might want you to believe, sending package bombs to Governmental offices and targeting Governmental officials is NOT Patriotic! Nor is it cool or even remotely acceptable. In this great Country of ours, we have a perfect system of protest against existing Governments. It is called the Ballot box. We also have the first amendment, which allows us to peacefully assemble and protest against the actions of our Government. You saw that during the Tea Party protests this summer, and because of those protests and because of the media coverage of them, there was a landslide victory by the Republicans in the House and parts of the Senate as well.
Those who stoop to violence towards our Government have given up hope on the political system and on the process of elections. Violence solves nothing at all; it just causes the other side of the political fence to blame those of us, who are peace-loving Americans, who do not agree with the big Government polices of the liberals in Congress and in the White House — for this sort of ungodly nonsense. When in all honesty, it is not our fault.
I want it to be publicly known that this “right of center” political blog and it’s owner condemn this sort of terrorist actions in the highest terms possible and it is my personal hope and prayer that they catch the person or persons responsible for this and that they prosecute this godless vermin to the fullest extent of the law. Further more, I believe that if Fox News, and every other Conservative outlet out there has ANY sort of integrity at all; these organizations would come out and say the same exact thing.
Unfortunately, among the more Paleo-libertarian crowd, this sort of extremist action is seen as heroic and even justified — which is, of course, asinine. Acts of violence, in a civilized society, such as ours, to make a political point, is right on par with what Al-Qaeda and other such Jihad groups wish to do here in America. In other words, this is nothing more than straight up terrorism and should be treated as such.
Again, in closing, having a political stance and opinion is fine — even acceptable. However, when one decides to hurt other people to express that opinion — you stop being a patriot or even an American and you become a terrorist and a criminal. There is a difference and I believe that more Bloggers on the right ought to be saying this.
Update: Dan says I am renouncing myself. Which is idiotic at best. I simply am saying that those, like Lew Rockwell, that find this sort of a thing to be chick are not patriots. But, TERRORISTS…. Period, FULL STOP.
It is that time again. Time to take a look at what were the top postings of 2010.
It is important to remember that this was a down year for this blog. I just have not had the drive to post like I was back in 2009 and 2008. The mid-terms were a bit interesting, as was the passage of the health care bill. However, I just did not have that drive that I did back when I first started this blog. I think it just has to do with the fact that my main reason for beginning to blog, that would be the Presidency of George W. Bush. Not to mention the Bush Administration’s handling of the invasion and occupation of Iraq. Now that the Bush era is over, I really do not have a good reason to continue this; Yes, Obama’s White House is just as bad, if not worse. However, I just cannot muster the outrage towards the man, that many on my far right feel towards the man. Most of it, when one is really being honest is racially based. I mean, I do not remember the right being this hot and heavy against Bill Clinton. It was there, do not get me wrong — but I do not remember that this level.
Anyhow, I will still be around, I do not plan on going anywhere. I will not allow my political foes to win. I will stick around and continue to give you my feelings on things.
Having said all of that, here are the top postings and pages for 2010:
PAGE OR POST ——————————— Hits:
Home page 19,038
Considering the fact that I do no advertising on this blog at all. That is not a bad number. I really do not get linked here at all. I even had one so-called Conservative Blogger dump on me big time and basically toss me under the bus, because some of Michelle Malkin’s fanboys put the pressure on him. He knows who he is, and “You reap what you sow” I always say…
There are many who link here and there are places that I submit my postings to, I thank everyone who has came, read and clicked an ad or two, it does help. 🙂
So there you have it, my referrers. Not all of them are friendly. But hey, that is politics, not everyone is going to agree with me. Even I know that. 🙂
Again, to those who still read here. Thank You so very much for your readership. Perhaps 2011 will be a more prosperous year for me. I will admit, this year, money-wise was not that great. I am still unemployed and prospects are not that great. I did survive, but, if it were not for my Christian parents, I would be so very screwed. 🙁 I do not say that for pity or anything — I say it, because it is true. This is my reality folks and I know some would rather mock than help —- They have their reward, as Jesus did say.
There is a common misconception that ALL Conservatives are filthy rich or something to that effect. If only it were true. I am most likely the poorest Conservative Christian Blogger on the planet. Not by choice, but by circumstance — sometimes stuff just happens. I do not wallow in pity though, as I could much, much worse off. I have a roof over my head and three square meals a day. I also have a warm bed to sleep in at night. I also know Jesus Christ as my personal Saviour and I like to think that he is Lord over my life —- and that my friends, is ALL that matters! Everything else, is secondary. As long as you have Jesus in your heart, you are set for life. God never fails, and his word is settled in Heaven!
Some people ask why I even bother to continue this blog, even though 90% of the Conservative Blogging world has written me off. I will tell you why. Because as long as there are progressives out there that want to destroy our Conservative Christian values and want to impose on us a big centralized Government; liberty is threatened. As long as this is the case. I will be fighting this fight. Is it my “calling?” Eh, I do not know that to be a fact. But I do know that my blog does get read and that my opinion is being heard. Now, whether people like what I write and have to say, is another story. I do not claim to be the perfect “Conservative” and I am certainly not your average big Government liberal! I am just someone who saw wrong and decided to write against it. My politics have evolved much — but my commitment has remained the same — that is to be a uncompromising voice of reason in a world of political, religious and moral confusion. Which is what liberalism, whether political or religious, actually is. It is a Babylonian mentality. As Patriotic Americans, as Christians, we must stand up for what we know to be right. For that document called the Constitution. This is not a call to radicalism or violence, it is simply a call to be aware and watch.
Having said all that… Thank you and continue to read here in 2011. It will be a interesting year to watch!
A free Club EWI report reveals why bonds do not provide shelter from the storm
December 23, 2010
By Elliott Wave International
TREASURIES — the very name conveys a thing that is secure, protected, and will appreciate over time. Otherwise, it’d be called something like “TRASHeries” or “Mattress Stuffers.” Then, there’s the official seal of the US Department of Treasury: its image of a scale and a key symbolize “balance” and “trust.”
And, finally, there’s the mainstream economic experts who have it on good authority that long-term bonds increase in value during financial instability and uncertainty.
On this, the following news items from November-December 2010 reflect the enduring faith in fixed-income assets as the ultimate safe-havens:
“Bonds Tumble On Signs of Economic Recovery” (Reuters)
“US Treasury Prices Rise as traders positioned for negative headlines….” (Associated Press)
“Treasury’s rise as investors sought shelter in safe haven assets amid rising fears about sovereign debt woes in the eurozone. The slow motion train wreck is likely to play out over year end as each country plays musical chairs with solvency. The market’s concern here is ‘What is next?’ The 10-year Treasury yield will fall if the problems get worse from here.” (Wall Street Journal)
There’s just one problem with this notion: namely, bonds (of any denomination) do NOT have a built-in disaster premium. This is the myth-busting revelation of the latest, free report from Elliott Wave International. The resource titled “The Next Major Disaster Developing For Bond Holders” includes a thoughtful selection of various EWI publications that expose the very real vulnerability of bond markets to economic downturns.
The premier study on the subject comes from Chapter 15 of EWI President Robert Prechter’s book Conquer The Crash by way of this memorable excerpt:
“If there is one bit of conventional wisdom that we hear repeatedly with respect to investing, it is that long-term bonds are the best possible investment [in downturns]. This assertion is wrong. Any bond issued b a borrower who can’t pay goes to zero in a depression. Understand that in a [major contraction], no one knows its depth and almost everyone becomes afraid. That makes investors sell bonds of any issuers that they fear could default. Even when people trust the bonds they own, they are sometimes forced to sell them to raise cash to live on. For this reason, even the safest bonds can go down, at least temporarily, as AAA bonds did in 1931 and 1932.
The first chart (see below) shows what happened to bonds of various grades in the deflationary crash. And the second chart (see below) shows what happened to the Dow Jones 40-bond average, which lost 30% of its value in four years. Observe that the collapse of the early 1930s brought these bonds’ prices below — and their interest rates above — where they were in 1920 near the peak in the intense inflation of the ‘Teens.”
That’s just the tip of this myth-busting report. “The Next Major Disaster” uncovers flaws in other widely-accepted bond lore, including these two assumptions:
High -yield bonds rise during economic expansions
AND — municipal bonds provide a steady refuge in times of economic stress.
Read more about Robert Prechter’s warnings for holders of municipals and other bonds in his free report: The Next Major Disaster Developing for Bond Holders. Access your free 10-page report now.
The Senate on Saturday blocked a bill that would have created a path to citizenship for certain young illegal immigrants who came to the United States as children, completed two years of college or military service and met other requirements, including passing a criminal background check.
The vote by 55-41 in favor of the bill, which is known as the Dream Act, effectively kills it for this year, and its fate is uncertain. The measure needed the support of 60 senators to cut off a filibuster and bring it to the floor.
Supporters said they were heartened that the measure won the backing of a majority of the Senate. They said they would continue to press for it, either on its own or as part of a wide immigration overhaul that some Democrats hope to undertake next year and believe could be an area of cooperation with Republicans, who will control a majority in the House.
Most immediately, the measure would have helped grant legal status to hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrant students and recent graduates whose lives are severely restricted, though many have lived in the United States for nearly their entire lives.
Young Hispanic men and women filled the spectator galleries of the Senate, many of them wearing graduation caps and tassels in a symbol of their support for the bill. They held hands in a prayerful gesture as the clerk called the roll and many looked stricken as its defeat was announced.
President Obama had personally lobbied lawmakers in support the bill. But Democrats were not able to hold ranks.
Five Democrats joined Republicans in opposing the bill. They were Senators Max Baucus of Montana, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Jon Tester of Montana.
And three Republicans joined the balance of Democrats in favor of it: Robert Bennett of Utah, Richard Lugar of Indiana, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.
Mr. Obama, in a statement, called the outcome “incredibly disappointing” and said that he would continue fighting to win approval of the bill.
Which should prove that America is a center-right Country and that most Americans oppose any sort of disruption of what is commonly known as “RULE OF LAW.”
A federal grand jury today indicted former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, his father and three former top aides on racketeering charges, accusing them of turning the mayor’s office into a criminal enterprise to enrich themselves, families and friends.
Besides the now-jailed former mayor, the 38-count indictment names his father, Bernard Kilpatrick, city contractor Bobby Ferguson, former top Kilpatrick aide Derrick Miller and former water department chief Victor Mercado in one of the largest public corruption investigations ever in the City of Detroit.
The indictment outlined four general areas of misconduct.
It said the defendants extorted money from municipal contractors, state and non-profit donors and engaged in bribery and extortion involving other public contracts and investments.
The indictment said that Ferguson kicked back at least $424,000 in cash and other items of value to the mayor and that Kilpatrick used more than $590,000 in cash derived from the conspiracy to pay his credit card bills, purchase cashier’s checks and clothing and repay loans.
Bernard Kilpatrick, the indictment said, deposited more than $600,000 in cash into his personal bank accounts. He was charged with three counts of filing false tax returns for calendar years 2004, 21005 and 2007.
The penalties for the charges laid out in the indictment range from three to 30 year in prison.
I believe it also would be fair to point out that this is what happens when you have the mentality THAT YOU ARE BLACK AND THAT YOU ARE ENTITLED! This sort of mentality, for what it is worth; dates back to the days of the Coleman A. Young administration. The difference is that Kwame was not able to pay the feds off, like Mayor Young was able to do. Further more, from what I heard at the presser, that Kwame and friends were even doing this sort of that back when Kwame was a state representative.
The Detroit News Reports the list of people, besides Kilpatrick, who have been charged…..so far:
Karl Kado: The former Cobo contractor, who has said in sworn testimony he made illegal cash payments to former Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, remains a key government witness and got three years probation.
Glenn Blanton: The former Cobo Center director who admitted taking illegal payments from Kado was sentenced to one year in prison for obstruction of justice.
Lou Pavledes: Another former Cobo director who admitted taking bribes from Kado, Pavledes got 14 months for a banking offense.
James R. Rosendall Jr.: The former Synagro Technologies Inc. vice president became an FBI informant and got 11 months for bribery.
Rayford W. Jackson: The Detroit businessman who was Synagro’s local partner is serving a five-year sentence for bribery.
Monica Conyers: The former Detroit city councilwoman who cast the deciding vote in favor of the $1.2 billion Synagro deal was sentenced to 37 months in prison for bribery.
Jerry M. Rivers: A former member of the mayor’s executive protection unit, Rivers pleaded guilty to bribery in connection with a city land sale and was sentenced to 12 months in prison.
Kandia Milton: A childhood friend and top aide to Kilpatrick, Milton pleaded guilty to bribery in connection with the city’s sale of Camp Brighton and was sentenced to 14 months in prison.
DeDan Milton: Another longtime friend of Kilpatrick, who like his brother is cooperating with prosecutors, is to be sentenced to 42 months in prison for bribery.
Sam Riddle: The political consultant and former top aide to Monica Conyers pleaded guilty to a felony conspiracy charge in May and was sentenced to 37 months in prison.
Mary Waters: Pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor tax charge in May in connection with the Southfield case and was sentenced to one year of probation.
William Lattimore: The former Southfield city councilman pleaded guilty to bribery after he was picked up on a wiretap of Riddle’s cell phone. Lattimore was sentenced to 18 months in prison.
Marc Andre Cunningham: A former aide to Kilpatrick, he pleaded guilty to a bribery charge in November and awaits sentencing Feb. 10.
Brian Dodds: Co-owner of Howell-based D&R Earthmoving LLC, he pleaded guilty to concealing a crime in connection with an inflated contract Kilpatrick pal Bobby Ferguson received. He is to be sentenced Jan. 10. Ferguson has been indicted on multiple counts and awaits trial.
Rodney Burrell: The head of Northville-based R&R Heavy Haulers pleaded guilty to concealing a crime in connection with the same bid-rigging on the Ferguson contract. He is to be sentenced in March.
Hopefully and I do mean hopefully; this will send a message to anyone who seeks office in the city of Detroit — that if you run for public office and you decide to break the law, that you will be caught and you will be charged and that you will end up and jail.
Although, I will not lie to you; I have sinking suspicion that somebody somewhere, will play the race card and point out that the people filing these charges are mostly White and latino and will somehow or another convince a judge to throw out the case. I do truly hope that I am wrong about this, I really do. Because Detroit has been rife with corruption for much, much too damned long. Many people, for many, many years have gotten very wealthy by corrupt means in Detroit for much too long —- while the rest of the City of Detroit falls into ruin. It is morally wrong and these turkeys that broke the law ought be jailed for the longest terms possible.
Hopefully, and I mean this one, with all the sincerity that I can muster — as a former resident of that city — this will close the chapter of the culture of corruption in that City and that the City of Detroit can finally, and I do mean finally get on with the business of restoring that City to its once great status. This might be a small step, but it is a very important one and God-willing it will be the first big one.
US Treasuries last week suffered their biggest two-day sell-off since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. The borrowing costs of the government of the world’s largest economy have now risen by a quarter over the past four weeks.
Such a sharp rise in US benchmark market interest rates matters a lot – and it matters way beyond America. The US government is now servicing $13.8 trillion (£8.7 trilion) in declared liabilities – making it, by a long way, the world’s largest debtor. Around $414bn of US taxpayers’ money went on sovereign interest payments last year – around 4.5 times the budget of America’s Department of Education.
Debt service costs have reached such astronomical levels even though, over the past year and more, yields have been kept historically and artificially low by “quantitative easing (QE)” – in other words, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s virtual printing press. Now borrowing costs are 28pc higher than a month ago, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 3.33pc last week, an already eye-watering debt service burden can only go up.
Few on this side of the Atlantic should feel smug. The eurozone’s ongoing sovereign debt debacle has pushed up Germany’s borrowing costs by 27pc over the last month – to 3.03pc. The market has judged that if Europe’s Teutonic powerhouse wants the single currency to survive, it will ultimately need to raise wads of cash to absorb the mess caused by other member states’ fiscal incontinence…
…Some say that growing signs of a US economic recovery are positive for stocks, which means money is being diverted out of Treasuries, so lowering their price, which pushes up yields.That’s wishful thinking. Sovereign borrowing costs have just surged in the US – and therefore elsewhere – because a politically-wounded President Obama caved-in and extended the Bush-era tax cuts, combining them with a $120bn payroll tax holiday…
…The market is increasingly alarmed at the rate of increase of the US government’s already massive liabilities. America’s government debt is set to expand by a jaw-dropping 42pc over the next few years, reaching $19.6 trillion by 2015 according to Treasury Department estimates presented (amid very little fanfare) to Congress back in June. Since then, government spending has risen even more. So US debt service costs, like those of many other Western nations, are expanding rapidly in terms of both the volumes of sovereign instruments outstanding, and the yields on each bond.
You know what that means? It means that if you are a small time investor; that you need to get out of the Market NOW! This could have a huge impact on the market, and you could lose very big. I do virtual trading and so far, I have done well on my trades. But I am not about to lose my shirt, so, I ordered a sell off of everything. Now the big time guys will be able to afford to ride this out, because they have the wealth to spare. But the small time people will get burned. The best thing I can tell you small times investors, is to dump your shares and put it all into Gold. That would either be into EFT‘s or real actual Gold.
Disclaimer: I do not claim to be a expert on the subject of stocks, trading or even Gold. However, it does stand to reason that when such news as this is report, that it will affect the U.S. markets and the United States financial system. I do however, promote a great investment advice service called Elliotwave. You might want to check it out.
Lovers necessarily keep or share secrets. Being in a healthy relationship means achieving a certain level of intimacy, where shared knowledge of each others’ weaknesses and insecurities is protected by a bond of mutual trust. Sometimes lovers might do devilish things that outsiders wouldn’t understand, or shouldn’t be privy to, and this is fine. But by and large, what they do is simply no one else’s business.
But imagine that the man in the relationship kept it a secret that he had other women on the side, kids, a criminal record, venereal disease, and basically betrayed his lover in every way imaginable, unbeknownst to her?
Now imagine a third party felt it was their moral duty to reveal it?
No one questions that governments must maintain a certain level of secrecy, including WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who told Time that “Secrecy is important for many things … [but it] shouldn’t be used to cover up abuses.” The entire premise of Assange’s whistleblower organization is this: To what degree is government secrecy justified? And when particular secrets could be damaging to the other partner in the United States government’s relationship — the American people — should these secrets be revealed in the name of protecting the public?
How often does our government use “national security” simply as an excuse to cover up questionable dealings? Reports Time: “in the past few years, governments have designated so much information secret that you wonder whether they intend the time of day to be classified. The number of new secrets designated as such by the U.S. government has risen 75% … . At the same time, the number of documents and other communications created using those secrets has skyrocketed nearly 10 times…”
To say that government must keep secrets is not to say that all government secrets must be kept.
As admitted even by Pentagon officials and Defense Secretary Robert Gates, none of WikiLeaks’ revelations do anything to compromise national security or endanger American lives — but they have wreaked havoc on political life in Washington, D.C. Americans are not supposed to know, for example, that their government bullied and threatened individuals and other governments that might have undermined the Copenhagen climate change summit in 2009. The federal government attempting to squelch anyone who might undermine global-warming dogma? Do WikiLeaks’ conservative critics believe revealing this is a “national security” risk?
Americans are not supposed to know, apparently, that behind the scenes Saudi Arabia has been encouraging the U.S. to take military action against Iran. But if we end up going to war with Iran shouldn’t it be in America’s national interest, and not simply as a subcontractor for another country? Asks Fox News’ Judith Miller: “Why should Americans not know that Arab states, often at the top level, have been urging Washington to take military or other drastic action against Iran, while they publicly oppose such action?”
And when did conservatives become so protective of Hillary Clinton? What happened to the days of the “Stop Hillary Express,” when right-wing talk radio portrayed the former first lady as Satan and theorized about all the devious ways in which, if in power, she might conspire to bring down the country? When WikiLeaks revealed that Secretary of State Clinton tried to obtain DNA, fingerprints, credit-card numbers, and other private information belonging to United Nations officials, we learned that Clinton’s style was every bit as mafia-esque as her conservative critics once warned. Yet conservatives now attack WikiLeaks for revealing what they once feared. It should also be remembered that the same conservatives now calling for Assange’s head either ignored or were sympathetic to Lewis “Scooter” Libby’s outing of CIA operative Valerie Plame allegedly at the Bush administration’s behest — a revelation arguably far riskier to our national security than anything ever released by WikiLeaks.
But the worst hypocrisy throughout this controversy has been in conservatives reflexively defending the government and attacking WikiLeaks. Since when have conservatives believed that Washington should be able to shroud any action it likes in secrecy and that revealing government’s nefarious deeds is tantamount to treason? Isn’t it government officials who might secretly work for corporate, ideological or transnational interests — and against the national interest — who are betraying their country?
Interestingly, Wikileaks’ founder espouses the traditionally conservative, Jeffersonian view that America’s constitutional structure limits and lessens government corruption. Reported Time: “Assange appears to believe that the U.S. has not become ‘a much-worse-behaved superpower’ because its federalism, ‘this strength of the states,’ has been a drag on the combination of the burgeoning power of the central government and a presidency that can expand its influence only by way of foreign affairs.”
Decentralizing government power, limiting it, and challenging it was the Founders’ intent and these have always been core conservative principles. Conservatives should prefer an explosion of whistleblower groups like WikiLeaks to a federal government powerful enough to take them down. Government officials who now attack WikLleaks don’t fear national endangerment, they fear personal embarrassment. And while scores of conservatives have long promised to undermine or challenge the current monstrosity in Washington, D.C., it is now an organization not recognizably conservative that best undermines the political establishment and challenges its very foundations.
Julian Assange poses a clear and present danger to American national security. The WikiLeaks founder is more than a reckless provocateur. He is aiding and abetting terrorists in their war against America. The administration must take care of the problem – effectively and permanently.
The recent WikiLeaks document dump is the latest example of Mr. Assange’s dangerous behavior. His release of more than 250,000 U.S. diplomatic cables, many of them containing classified information, is a major blow to our foreign policy. The essence of diplomacy – especially that of a great power – is the ability to conduct negotiations and hold talks in secret. Foreign leaders will not be willing to engage in sensitive discussions with American emissaries if their words are going to be splashed across the front pages of the world’s newspapers. Officials in autocratic and Islamist states often risk their lives to cooperate with Washington, usually by providing vital information or advice. They now face a further disincentive to help us: The U.S. government can no longer guarantee the privacy and secrecy of their discussions.
American diplomacy has been crippled. So has our ability to conduct the war on terrorism. For example, the cables cache reveals that the United States is working closely with Yemen’s dictator, Ali Abdullah Saleh, in launching drone strikes against local al Qaeda bases. Al Qaeda has spread to Yemen. Its insurgency is growing. Yemen risks becoming what Afghanistan was before Sept. 11, 2001: a vast sanctuary for jihadists. Mr. Saleh insists that Yemeni public opinion – insular, xenophobic and increasingly Islamic – will not support the U.S. military presence on domestic soil. Hence, he says the pretense must be maintained that Yemen is firing the missiles, not America. This pretense has been shattered – and with it, perhaps, a key ally in the struggle against al Qaeda. Mr. Assange is helping chase the American infidel out of Yemen’s desolate deserts.
[………]
The United States is paying a severe price for Mr. Obama’s negligence. This is the greatest diplomatic crisis since the late 1940s, when communist agents in the U.S. government provided atomic secrets to the Soviet Union. The world is witnessing the absurd, almost surreal spectacle of the American superpower standing helpless in the face of a lone hacker. Her diplomatic secrets are no longer safe; her allies and friends are being betrayed; and her cyber-enemies are free to roam with impunity. America is no longer feared or respected.
Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. vows that he is looking into possible criminal charges against Mr. Assange. It is too late for tough talk. At this point, we are beyond indictments and courts. The damage has been done; people have died – and will die because of the actions of this puerile, self-absorbed narcissist. News reports say the WikiLeaks founder is hiding out in England. If that’s true, we should treat Mr. Assange the same way as other high-value terrorist targets: Kill him
Okay, here is the question that I feel the need to ask. Are we going to kill someone every time some whistle blower decides to speak out and expose some corruption in Government? Because if that is where we are headed, that is a slippery slope we can never recover from. Like anyone else, I am for open Government, I am also for seeing elected officials held accountable. However, if the United States Government and more importantly the United States Military is being put at risk, then by all means, arrest this guy and put him away.
I have no idea what Julian Assange‘s motivation is; whether it is conspiracy theory, politics or if he is just a pompous ass. But the idea of KILLING someone, just because decide to release some confidential information is not something, as a Conservative; who believes in rule of law and not Governmental treachery, that I can support. Because once you unleash that monster onto the American and World Wide Community, it cannot be stopped.
I would think that Jeff Kuhner would be a bit smarter than that. However, when you are working for a paper that basically was a cheerleader for the Bush Administration during the lead up to and during the Iraqi Invasion, one can expect only so much.
Last week we had typical pre-holiday light volume trading going into US Thanksgiving. The previous week I warned every one to trade with extreme caution because of the light volume and the fact that the market is on the verge of a sizable drop for both stocks and commodities. Any price action could not be taken seriously because of the light volume. We will not know until later this coming week what the big money wants to do… Buy or Sell, also what the manipulators will do… Seems like there are a lot of wild cards out there with Europe issues and both unemployment and payroll numbers out on Friday morning.
Below are a few charts showing my intermediate term outlook for gold and silver.
Gold & Silver Futures – Daily Chart
You can see both metal are showing a possible reversal head and shoulders pattern. While they have yet to confirm and close below the neck line we must be aware of this pattern and the risk/potential it provides us with. Both metals are still in an uptrend but showing signs of weakness.
US Dollar Index – Weekly Chart
This chart is not really that helpful for trading stocks, commodities or options right now but I wanted to post it because it allows me to show you how I analyze the market and my trades.
As you can see, the past 3 weeks have been in a strong uptrend reaching the first resistance level. The point of this chart is to show you that if you step out to the next longer time frame you can get a solid feeling of where an investment will find major support and resistance levels. Any investment not matter if it’s a stock, commodity or currency, if the price is trading in the middle of a large range like this chart you should not be taking large positions because it almost becomes a 50/50 bet on the market which is not a good winning strategy unless you are very experienced at managing your trades and money.
If you are going to trade then you want to focus on the underlying trend and you do that by looking at the next larger time frame. For example: if you focus on trading the daily chart, then you must step back each week and review the weekly chart to be sure you are trading with the underlying trend which is up for the dollar right now.
Weekend Trading Ideas:
Tuesday morning we saw the SP500 gap lower and continue to sell off. Traders started panicking out of their long positions and we could see it using the intraday market internals charts, which I cover each morning in the pre-market trading videos. Me being a contrarian (buying into market fear, selling into market strength) I used that high level of fear in the market along with the expected light volume holiday week ahead as an excuse to book profits near the lows on SP500 using the SDS bear fund allowing us to profit from the falling market. I feel we are going to have some crazy moves on the markets going into year end and it should be a lot of fun if done correctly.
Trading in general is a very difficult task especially if you are doing it for a living and planning on using your monthly income to pay bills, salaries etc… We all know the stress which comes with trading and if do not have a solid trading strategy, rules and cannot properly manage yourself (emotions) then you are most likely running into problems like over-trading, getting shaken out of trades easily, and taking bigger risks than your account can handle. Each of these cause more traders to blow up their accounts and big up on trading.
I am giving away my book on how you can control your trades, money and emotions. This short and to the point guide is full of my trading techniques, tips and thoughts which will help you get a handle of your emotions turning the market noise into music.
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