The financial markets continue to climb the wall of worry on the back of more Fed Quantitative Easing. Those trying to pick a top in this choppy bull market may prove to be correct for a couple hours but over time the shorts continue to get clobbered.
Quantitative easing was enough to turn gold back up and gave oil just enough of a nudge to breakout of its cup and handle pattern explained later.
The past few weeks the number of emails I receive on a daily basis about what individuals should do about short positions they took on their own has growing quickly. Usually when my inbox starts to fill up with traders holding heavy losses trying to pick a top I know something big is about to happen and its not going to be in the favor of the herd (everyone shorting). In the past couple week there have been some great entry points for the broad market whether its to buy the SP500, Dow, NASDAQ or Russell 2K. I focus on trading with the trend and entering on extreme sentiment readings as shown in the chart below.
Extreme Trend Trading Analysis
Below are my main market sentiment indicators for helping to time short term tops and bottoms. That being said I don’t pick short term tops in hopes to profit on the down side. Rather I wait for a extreme sentiment bottom to be put in place, then enter long with the up trend (Buy Low).
Once there is a 1-2% surge in price and sentiment indicators are showing a short term top I like to pull a little money off the table to lock in some profits while still holding a core position (Sell High). This is exactly what I/subscribers have done over the last couple weeks. This is a simple yet highly effective strategy and works just as well in a down trend except I focus on shorting extreme sentiment bounces. Subscribers know what these indicators are as I cover them each week in my daily pre-market trading videos as we prepare for the day ahead. —- Read The Rest Here
With the election over and congress divided, it may be difficult for the president to get much done. None of this will take affect until the near year but traders are asking the big question… Will the government work together as a team or will it be a stalemate?
Today’s whipsaw action after the FOMC statement shook things up as it always does. We saw gold, silver, the dollar, SP500 and bond prices go haywire. It took about 30 minutes for the market to digest this news in that time a lot of people lost money because of the wide price swings. Trading around news, I find, is a net losing trade over the long run and I advise never to do it. Rather wait for a trend to form and trade any low risk setups that come your way.
I truly believe that the market has already priced in most news and events which unfold, and that news tends to agree with the overall trend of the market. Of course there will be short term blips on the charts from the news, but they tend to be minor setbacks in the underlying market trend. That being said, the trend is our friend, and while so many are trying to pick a top in the equities market it makes me cringe because they are fighting the trend and the Fed.
In my recent forecast updates for my subscribers and also in my free articles online, I have expounded on the virtues of Elliott Wave Theory, which I use as my linchpin for my short and long term views. To wit, back in August 2009 I made it clear that we would enter a five year period of a massive move up in both Gold and Gold Stocks. Gold was $900 an ounce at the time, and is now at $1360 an ounce. I made that forecast based on human behavioral patterns that go back centuries. Crowds love to all act like a swarm of bees flying together. Everyone hates stocks or sectors when they are down, and the crowd loves them when they are up or going up. Investors like to chase stocks and sectors when they are up high and running near parabolic, but they don’t like to buy large dips or consolidations ahead of moves. Once you learn that Elliott Wave patterns and a few other indicators sprinkled in can give you a heads up on when the crowd is about to jump in, you can basically front run the crowds.
I digress and go back to the Gold Bull Market. The reason I knew in August of 2009 that from $900 Gold we would enter a five year “massive” Bull Run is due to crowd patterns. To refresh, I see Gold as being in a Fibonacci 13 year cycle up that started in 2001. The first five years not too many investors participate in the Bull Run because the prior 20 did nothing. By the time everyone realized in 2006 that Gold mutual funds had compounded 30% a year for five years, it was too late to jump in. Of course, that is when everyone started buying Gold mutual funds and stocks. The problem is the first move was over, and we had 3 Fibonacci years of chop with no net gains. The crowd gives up around the summer of 2009, and that is when I forecasted a huge five year move to come. So far Gold is up over 50% in 13 months and Gold Stocks are up well north of that. The junior stocks started expanding in volume and price months ago, and that should have been yet another wake up call to investors.
Something interesting happened yesterday. I received this rather tersely worded e-mail from the follow that handles Blog relations at BlogAds:
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My first reaction was, basically, to chuckle a bit. What happened was this; I was trying to edit an ad spot here a few days ago and the server that handles the ad editing — was slow, as in very, very, slow. Therefore, I hopped over to the facebook page and in so many words, told the idiots to fix their stupid slow server. I guess Henry, the man that owns BlogAds, saw it and someone got their butt chewed for it. I suspect that might have been Marc. Therefore, in retaliation, I am tossed off the service.
Here is why this really does not matter at all. I can count on one hand, how many ads I have gotten with BlogAds, since I started using it again — when I switched sides politically. I only got five or maybe six paying ads on the side. When I was a left of center Blogger, I got exactly ZERO ads. As a “Right of Center” Blogger, I even was a part of a few hives, or Ad Groups. Those paid nothing as well. I mean, literally no ads came from the majority of them; except maybe the so-called “Conservative” hive. I got a few through there. I ended up leaving that hive, because of the actions of its owner. Of whom, I felt was a bit of an asshole towards David Frum. Other than this, I was not “rolling in the dough” as some might have assumed —- much quite the opposite — I never made much of anything with Blogads at all. All of those ads, that you might have seen in the sidebars, in the Blogads, ad sections, were free ads that I ran, either to promote stuff that I was selling on zazzle or as a favor to others who asked for the help.
Frankly, it is the opinion of this writer, that Blogads day has come and gone; Blogads came on the scene in 2002 and became big in 2004, during the election. However, much has changed since then. Google Adsense got smart and started doing graphical ads — not to mention the fact that their pricing structure is a bit saner for advertisers. In addition, there is this little thing. I believe in the time old business practice of “the Customer is always right,” no matter how abusive, nasty or whatever, the customer is always right. Frankly, if the staff over at Blogads cannot handle being yelled at, because of their subpar servers, then they should shut the company down and leave the advertising business.
Frankly, I am glad to be severed from that company and their joke of an advertising system, which benefits the bigger bloggers and leaves the smaller people like others and me on there in the cold. Therefore, I can honestly say, there was no big loss, at least not on my part.
In conclusion, I simply say to Blogads —- Goodbye and good luck. I wish you the best; however, I suspect that BlogAds will be going the way of other foolhardy ad businesses of the pre-economic bubble era — out of business, especially if they continue with this philosophy that the staff is always right.
It seems that Reason Magazine has decided that it is Detroit’s time in the barrel. They have produced a video detailing another rightfully named “Boondoggle” of a light rail system. It appears that the funding for this project is coming from the United States Government and by proxy — yours and mine pocketbooks and Taxes.
I noticed in the video of theirs, that they used an old promo video, made in 1965 by the city of Detroit. For what it is worth; that video was made for the luring of the International Olympic Committee to Detroit; of which I am very to report that the committee saw right through that silly propaganda film and passed on Detroit. Which proves to this writer that the people at the Olympic committee are much smarter than the then Mayor of Detroit, gave them credit for being. I mean, could you have seen the Olympics being held in Detroit? The metals themselves would have never made it out alive. I could just see it now, “Your Medal, or your life cracka!” It is quite the horrifying thought actually.
First, here is Reason TV’s video:
Now for what they missed; in 1967 there was a horrific riot here in Detroit. It has been called the 1967 Detroit race riot. The riot itself was started after the City of Detroit’s Police Department raided an after-hours blind pig. Now, keep in mind, the police were simply doing their jobs. They were tipped off to an illegal drinking establishment, which, for what it is worth —- only catered to black people; and they raided the place. During the raid, a scuffle broke out, between the police and the persons being raided, somehow during that scuffle; a police officer’s guns went off and thus gave catalyst to one of worst riots in the history of the Country —- not mention the city of Detroit —– a rumor. The rumor was that a black man that was arrested during raid of the blind pig was laying face down on the sidewalk, with his hands cuffed behind his back; was shot at point blank range in the back of the head, by a uniformed Detroit Police officer.
Now there is only one little inconvenient truth to this sickening and most awful rumor —- not a word of it was even remotely true. — It was this rumor, which was circulated among the Detroit black population, in a rather short amount of time; that was the proverbial kerosene on the bonfire for the City of Detroit in 1967 and as a result; all hell broke loose in Detroit. This was the result:
If I sat here and said that all of the above was done by blacks — I would be straight up lying to you. It has been widely reported around here, and there were outside forces that egged on, supported, and even contributed to the huge riot. Anarchists from various states were believed to have come to Detroit and joined in the riot —- we call those people libertarian leftists today. Although, I like to call these people something different —- Anti-American.
Here is a groovy little video that shows just went on here in Detroit in 1967 —- with music from Detroit’s own MC5:
The riot stopped after the then Mayor of Detroit, Jerome Cavanagh, a Democrat, stopped cowering behind his desk, at the prospect of so many out of control blacks; and actually called the Governor of Michigan, George W. Romney, a Republican and begged for the National Guard to be brought in to stop the rioting. Which is so typical of the liberal Democrats, they make a mess of things and then call in the adults to clean up the mess, which is what we have in Washington DC right now! Anyone who would doubt my words, I will personally give you the “real world” tour of Detroit and show you just how bad the children Democrats have ruined that city. I ought to know, I did live there at one time, like many other people from this area.
It is fair to note, however, that the riot in Detroit was not the first one. There were actually three —- 1863, 1943, and 1967 respectively. They all had the same things in common; blacks who were under the impression that they were being oppressed somehow or another —- or as it is commonly known in proper English as being a selfish ingrate. I mean, we allowed them to migrate to Detroit from places like Alabama, where they were getting lynched on a regular basis, gave them jobs based on their skill levels; which were, honestly, not that very high — but yet, they were being oppressed by the white man. The blacks at time said that they wanted social justice, which means, in normal human speak, “I want what you have, but I do not want to have to actually earn it or work for it, I want it given to me.” This is pretty much the hallmark of the Democratic Party, is it not?
It happened around this time in 1967. Many of the white immigrants, who fled Germany and the surrounding countries, after the horrific collapse of the Weimar Republic began to really think that this whole idea of blacks and whites living in Detroit in sweet and loving harmony —- was nothing more than a pipe dream and began to flee the city Detroit. I kid you not; entire Churches, Synagogues, and Families — everything beat a path out of Detroit like cockroaches scattering in sudden daylight. Now, the Democrats have long said this was because these people were racist. However, let me ask you a question. If an angry black man came tearing up your street and wanted to toss a Molotov cocktail through the front window of your house or through the window of your store, for no reason other than a silly rumor — would you not have second thoughts about wanting to keep your store or possibly even your family in that city? I think the answer to that question is obvious.
In closing, while the Reason Magazine video was great, it missed one important piece of the puzzle. Detroit did not just end up in its current condition for no reason; it had help and it was not an overnight thing, it has been happening for years. In addition, there is not one thing to blame, but a plethora of things to blame; politics, corruption, riots, unions — all of it have contributed to Detroit’s demise. Not to mention race, it is a factor; but to scapegoat one race for the demise is wrong-headed. This is why the Neo-Nazi Klan hates me so much, because I disagree with and mock their folly with great joy. In other words, not just blacks destroyed Detroit. It was all of races, taking what they could get for themselves and then fleeing to their perspective corners of the state and allowing the inner city to rot. All the while painting over the rot and justifying it as some sort of community project. As they say, you can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig. You can put socialist programs into a city that is beyond saving; but the city, along with its rot and failures are still there. You would think that after some 43 years after those race riots; Detroit’s leadership and Michigan’s leadership would have figured that out by now.
Let me also say this; for all of things that I dislike about President Barack Obama, he has done nothing to make me personally believe that he is at the level of the awful that is presented in the film. There are those who believe, that were are nearing Soviet style communism. Sorry, I remain unconvinced of that just yet. However, I will tell you, that I remain distrusting of BOTH of these political parties, as they have been overran with special interest and corruption. Anyone that believes that the Republican Party is perfect, is one, naive or insane.
Enjoy the movie and remember what you watch here, as it is said — those who do not learn from history, is doomed to repeat it.
This posting is dedicated to the lives lost, during the oppressive regime that is covered in this movie.
myFOXDetroit.com Staff – We’re all rooting for the auto industry to come back stronger than ever. It affects every one of us here in metro Detroit and across the country because it’s so important to our economy.
Fox 2’s Rob Wolchek got a tip about what some guys are doing at Chrysler’s Jefferson North Assembly Plant in Detroit. This is the same plant that President Barack Obama visited back in July and talked about the significance of manufacturing in America.
The same place where the President remarked on the tax-payer generated government loan saying “I believed that if each of us were willing to work and sacrifice in the short term — workers, management, creditors, shareholders, retirees, communities — it could mark a new beginning for a great American industry. And if we could summon that sense of teamwork and common purpose, we could once again see the best cars in the world designed, engineered, forged, and built right here in Detroit, right here in the Midwest, right here in the United States of America.”
I thought I would comment on this story; seeing that I have some background in this area. I have news for my fellow Conservatives; this sort of thing has been going on for years in the auto plants. In fact, back in the 1980’s the drug problem was so bad in a few of the G.M. plants locally here, that General Motors had to call in the Federal Government to bring in undercover narcotics officers —- posing as workers that transferred in from other states, to nab these people dealing the dope. That is because the Union, that was supposed to be making sure stuff like this was not happening; had been bought off by the drug dealers and was standing by and letting them deal the drugs. I believe that Chrysler and Ford had similar raids too back in the 1980’s.
From a taxpayer’s stand point; yes, this does make me angry. Because basically, taxpayer’s dollars are paying for these guys to sit around and smoke dope. This is because taxpayer dollars did, in fact, bail this auto company out. However, because I am a bit of a libertarian; I do see this in another light. The late great Senator Barry Goldwater said the following: “You cannot legislate morality.” You can set rules, you can encourage people not to smoke or deal drugs; but you cannot force people not to do these things. As long as there are people out there who have a desire to do these things and as long as they are illegal — People are going to figure out a way to do them, without getting caught. Breaking the law is in the human DNA. It is how we are wired, it is, as the Bible puts it; in our human fleshly nature. Adam and Eve proved that one in the Garden.
The real underlying point here is this; these companies, especially Chrysler — should have never been rescued by the Government, at all. General Motors and Chrysler both had enough liquid assets that they could have sold off to generate enough capital to get themselves out of the hole that they were in. Granted, the problem was created by the Wall Street crash of 2008; however, General Motors and Chrysler had and most likely still has management issues that has caused waste for years. Now, unlike other libertarians and Conservatives; I will not play the scape-goat game with the Unions. The unions are a only a small part of the problem. Granted, they do play a role in the problem; but that role is not nearly is huge as it is made out to be by some on the right. The truth of the matter is, that these companies have not been properly managed for years. This is why these auto companies have had money issues for years.
I can tell you right now; Obama is not getting elected in 2012; it is over for the “Hope and Change” era. Over quicker than it started.
Now, I await two things; one, I await for some identity politics ogre, to start carping about how this man is just some angry white racist bigot. Second, I await some liberal to say that this guy is just some angry rich white businessman. Well, let me be the first to tell you all something here. I happen to know a little about the crowd, who hangs around Hope Depot.
Contrary to what some might actually believe. The good majority of the people who buy products at Home Dept are the people; that are commonly known as the backbone of America in this globalist age —- Small Business owners; and the Obama Administration, with the sun-setting of the Bush tax cuts — is basically targeting that group of people. Granted, not all business owners make that kind of money. However there are those that do, and they usually have employees and when taxes increase on those people, sometimes, especially with the smaller businesses; employees have to be laid off, because the “overhead” is just too much of burden on those business people. This should be just common sense, but when you are dealing with socialist left, common sense tends to run in short supply. When you let someone go like that, that causes the said person to not be able to spend money to contribute to the economy; which hurts the service industry, and so on. Not to mention the fact that that person will have problems paying his bills. It is a vicious cycle and it gets worse as the cycle progresses.
You see, that is one thing that I have been trying to make clear here; and I guess I will just have to say it — most likely again. I am sure I have written here in the past. Anyhow, I do not write on this blog to defend the multi-billion dollar companies. They do not need my help; they have their P.R. companies and such. I write for the small business owner and the working man, who decides to go into business for himself; painting walls, building kitchens or whatever sort of trade that he desires to do; like driving a truck or whatever. Those people should be helped, not targeted for taxes and other such stupidity that the socialist left tries to cook up. Like it or not, my friends — but the small business owner and their businesses are the backbone of America. Yes, sure, General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler have their place, as do every other big business. However, it is the small business owner, the entrepreneur that embodies the true Spirit of America. That is who I defend and will continue to here on this blog.
The blog is, and will always be — the Blog of the working man. Not the rich man — but those who work for themselves.
