Tag: Business

Interesting article on Dubai’s Construction Boom

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This is an interesting read:

Construction sites are buzzing with work across the Persian Gulf sheikdom of Dubai more than two years after the financial crisis set off a real estate slump that caused values to fall by more than 60 percent. In the next two years, tens of thousands of new properties will come onto a market where about 40 percent of homes and offices are already empty.Some developers have chosen to complete projects started before Dubai’s property market collapsed instead of canceling them and facing a legal obligation to return all advance payments to customers. Falling construction costs and low interest rates also provide an incentive to build now rather than wait for property values to increase. As many as 48,000 homes will be completed in the next two years, increasing supply by 12 percent, real estate broker Landmark Advisory estimates. “The cost of walking away from these projects is much higher than completing them,” says Ahmed Badr, head of Middle East real estate research at Credit Suisse CS.

(***)

The bottom line: The cost of canceling projects in Dubai has builders continuing to work even in the face of a residential and commercial property glut.

via Why Dubai’s Construction Boom Continues – BusinessWeek.

If this is is not a sign of a huge bubble about to pop; I do not know what is. When will people learn?

Bloomberg: Foreign Banks Are Fleeing Russia

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Who says Communism is dead in Russia?

Western banks once saw Russia as a huge undeveloped market. Now some foreign lenders are changing their minds. In the past year, at least six European and U.S. banks have announced plans to cut back or close operations in the country. Morgan Stanley MS sold its local mortgage unit last year, and Spain’s Banco Santander STD exited from consumer banking in December. The U.K.’s Barclays BCS announced in mid-February that it will divest the Russian retail unit it acquired for $745 million in 2008. “Subscale businesses don’t belong in our portfolio,” says Hans-Jörg Rudloff, chairman of Barclays’s investment banking arm.Only 24 percent of households in Russia have bank accounts, according to Credit Suisse CS. While older Russians who saw their savings wiped out in the 1998 crash remain wary of banks, a younger generation is eager for consumer credit to finance purchases of everything from cars to appliances. Russia’s mortgage industry is in its infancy, and the government’s new privatization push will give investment banking a lift.

(***)

Sberbank and VTB, both state-run and Russia’s top two banks by assets, are gaining clout. Sberbank has almost 20,000 retail branches and is plotting a move into investment banking. VTB, once the Soviet foreign trade bank, has more than 530 branches nationwide, and its investment banking unit is the biggest underwriter of bond and equity sales. On Feb. 22, VTB agreed to buy the Moscow government’s shares in Bank of Moscow for $3.5 billion—the biggest acquisition by a lender in the country.

(***)

The bottom line: Russia’s state-owned banks are bulking up, causing bantamweight foreign players to flee the market.

via Foreign Banks Are Fleeing Russia – BusinessWeek.

Whenever the Government squeezes out the private market; Business suffer and usually end up leaving or closing up shop. You’d think the Russians would have learned this under Communism. I guess they did not learn their lesson. It is also a lesson that we are learning here in America, when the Government gets involved in private industry, bad things happen. Too bad nobody has showed Obama that; but then again, Obama will not even release his Birth records to the American people — what more can we expect?

 

Video: Las Vegas Boom & Bust – A Preview for Singapore & China?

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This comes via GoldSiver.com:

Wouldn’t it be a good time to invest in Gold and Silver and beat the rush?

Stock and Trading Advice: Yen and Dollar…rally ahead?

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This is a sponsored posting….

Please click here to read about Yen and Dollar rally.

Click here to get more great trading advice.

Video: Ron Paul’s CPAC speech

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Via Fire Andrea Mitchell, who compares Ron Paul to Obama; which is typical of the Neo-Con Ilk.

UPDATED: Open Left Ceases Operations

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I know it is a liberal Blog; but you know what? It’s a blog and when one goes down, I believe the Blogosphere suffers.

Sort of a shock to me; I used to read this blog quite a bit.

Anyhow, here’s the sad news:

I have some sad news. After nearly four years in operation, today will be the final day Open Left publishes new content.

The site will not disappear, and all published content will remain online, but after today we will cease producing new content.

As the people who founded the site, myself included, moved on to other projects, we have gradually run out of money to maintain operations. It is a difficult decision, but we kept going for as long as we could.

I am, and always will be proud of the work we did here. I am, and will always be grateful to everyone who supported, visited, and participated in the site.

No matter what, the inside-outside fight we engaged for progressive change at Open Left will continue in other venues, even though this blog is about to close. The movement is much bigger than one blog.

Farewell posts will run throughout the day. Thank you, so much, to everyone.

Centrist Blog Donklephant is not buying it:

Wait…what?

Open Left is run on Soap Blox, which is a blogging platform and hosting service. The blog platform appears to be free and the most expensive hosting costs $40 a month. Sure, there are add ons, but Open Left doesn’t get a ton of traffic. They say they’re going to keep the website up, so it’ll cost $480 at the most every year. If you add in extra storage and overages every month, maybe it costs $1,000 a year…maybe.

So the idea that it was too costly to maintain the site is hard to swallow. Why didn’t they just throw a fundraiser? Think they could get 100 people to pitch in $10…or more? This is, after all, some of the same readers who rocketed Howard Dean from obscurity to the national stage because he was able to raise a ton of money online.

Bottom line…if they really cared about their readers they’d simply tell them that they can’t pay their writers anymore so content contributions will go down. And that’s assuming they paid their writers in the first place. Many political blogs simply invite people to blog and pay them zip. The platform, readership and communication is enough compensation. Also, I’ve been frank with all of you about content dropping in the down years between elections…and our hosting costs more than what they were paying. Do you see us going away?

Just saying…Chris Bowers and crew could easily keep that site up and post to it when they want to. But they’re not making any money. That’s the reason they’re quitting. Not very “open” if you ask me.

Ben Smith over at politico opines:

There’s been a bit written recently on the death of blogs, and while there will — I hope — remain space for some, there’s little doubt that the online world of politics is no longer limited to this form.

And here’s another harbinger of the shift: Open Left, founded in 2007 campaign by bloggers who often challenged Obama from his left, including Chris Bowers and Matt Stoller, announced today that it’s shutting down.

“No matter what, the inside-outside fight we engaged for progressive change at Open Left will continue in other venues, even though this blog is about to close. The movement is much bigger than one blog,” Bowers writes.

Some of the older blogs on right and left are still thriving, while others — like TPM and the Hot Air bloggers — have worked to turn themselves into broader news platforms. But the form now feels a little quaint.

I will not be your typical partisan — um, pardon the french — asshole and say, “Ha ha! progressive writing is not popular!” No, I will not do that. The truth is, that this economy just sucks wet socks. Because of this, start-ups are feeling the heat. The reason why I feel it, every time a blog goes down is this. I believe in a full rage of political discussion — whether I agree with it….or not.  Open left has been around for a very long time. I remember reading it back, when I was still rooting for the other side. That is, before it became rooted in stupidity.

As a Christian; I say to Chris Bowers; I wish you the best.

Hopefully, my readers will understand, that I take no pleasure in, nor do I get any joy about knowing that someone that I disagree with has had to throw the towel in on something that they enjoy.

Update: It seems that they do not feel the same way about me:

Shortly after Kerry’s loss in 2004, at MyDD, Chris wrote “Conservatism is our enemy” which I think is the first time I ever encountered a direct ideological assault on conservatism itself.  Along with Phil Agre’s rightly famous essay on the subject, it began me on a road and mission to better understanding this beast.  Everything I have learned to date from then continues to bolster Chris’ original thesis.  Conservativism is still the primary enemy of progress, justice, fairness and widespread happiness for humanity.  It remains a destructive and corrosive force on the institutions of democracy and the single biggest obstacle to world peace.

To which I say the following:

Eh, God Bless ’em. The awesome thing about America is the fact that everyone can have an opinion about Politics and other such subjects, without being worried about someone getting their head peeled. (So to speak…) Not that I agree with that at all. But there was a time, when I felt the same way.  Although, I was not quite as vocal about it. Nor did I put my feelings in such terms. Rigid ideologies of that sort get nothing done. Nor are either of the major political ideologies perfect either.

So, again, I say, eh…. God Bless ’em. 😀

Trading Advice: What Most People Don’t Realize About The Fed’s Superpowers

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Bob Prechter’s Conquer The Crash reveals whether the Fed really can rescue the US economy
January 27, 2011

By Elliott Wave International

Since its creation in 1913, the primary intended role of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has been that of protector. In theory, the central bank was bestowed with the power to shape monetary policy in a way that would keep both booms and busts in check. The two main tools at its disposal — interest rates and money creation — would provide a “ceiling of normalcy” above expansions AND a “net of safety” below contractions.

To this day, the financial mainstream holds great faith in the Fed’s ability to fulfill its save-the-day duties — as these recent news items make plain:

  • “Why Raising Fed Funds Rate Is Positive For Equities.” (Seeking Alpha)
  • “Fed’s Moves Lift All Asset Classes.” (Associated Press)
  • “US Stocks Erasing Losses: The aggressive moves of the Fed have been an important driver for the stabilization of stock prices.” (Bloomberg)

But of all the variables the Fed creators took into account, there’s one glaring factor they neglected to consider: Namely, it cannot force consumers to spend, creditors to lend, or businesses to borrow. The events of 2007-2009 “credit crunch” and the subsequent “Great Recession” made that obvious. Remember how the government was upset at banks for sitting on the bailout funds instead of lending them out to consumers? And consumers weren’t exactly lining up on the street to get a loan, either.

The Fed’s inability to change social mood is the central theme in Chapter 13 of EWI President Bob Prechter’s NY Times business bestseller book Conquer the Crash. There, Bob describes the Fed’s strategy of lowering the federal funds rate to stimulate spending to be as effective as “pushing on a string.” Writes Bob:

“The primary basis for today’s belief in perpetual prosperity and inflation with an occasional recession is what I call the ‘Potent Directors Fallacy.’ It is nearly impossible to find a treatise on macroeconomics today that does not assert or assume that the Federal Reserve Board has learned to control both our money and our economy. Many believe that it also possesses the immense power to manipulate the stock market. The very idea that it can do these things is false.”

And so begins one of the most groundbreaking studies into the very real INABILITY of the Fed to fell the great bears of economic declines, or to feed the great bulls of economic vigor.

The best part is, you can read Chapter 13 of Conquer the Crash in its entirety FREE via a Club EWI resource “You Can Survive And Prosper In A Deflationary Depression.” The free report also includes SEVEN other chapters of Conquer the Crash that shed equal light on some of the most misleading notions of mainstream economic wisdom.

Don’t stay in the dark. Read all 8 chapters today by joining the rapidly expanding free Club EWI community today. Here’s what you’ll learn:

  • Chapter 10: Money, Credit and the Federal Reserve Banking System
  • Chapter 13: Can the Fed Stop Deflation?
  • Chapter 23: What To Do With Your Pension Plan
  • Chapter 28: How to Identify a Safe Haven
  • Chapter 29: Calling in Loans and Paying off Debt
  • Chapter 30: What You Should Do If You Run a Business
  • Chapter 32: Should You Rely on Government to Protect You?
  • Chapter 33: A Short List of Imperative “Do’s” and Crucial “Don’ts”

Keep reading this free report now — all you need to do is create a free Club EWI profile.

Video: Ron Paul talks with John Stossel on the SOTU address

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This comes via The Daily Paul:

Part 1:

Part 2:

Comments are Welcome!

Stock and Trading Advice: WARNING TO OPTIONS TRADERS LOOKING AT NETFLIX EARNINGS

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One of the hardest things for me to remember is not to believe everything I see. I am a sucker for the latest “can’t lose” strategy supported by the experts. This morning I ran across a trade that looked too good to be true. I think it is, but I think it is instructive to walk through the potential hidden land mine. The event is the Wednesday afternoon release of NFLX earnings but there is a hidden trap for option traders using one commonly used earnings play structure.

The construction of the play is that of a “double calendar” spread. The underlying profit engine is an attempt to exploit the routinely seen spike in implied volatility (IV) of the options series most closely following earnings release. In this case, NFLX has weekly options which expire 48 hours after the scheduled announcement.

In order to understand the situation, let’s walk through the components step-by-step. First, is the routinely observed spike in IV seen as earnings release approaches present? As shown in the options pricing matrix below, the IV of the weekly options is substantially higher than the next series in time, the February monthlies:

Next, we need to get an idea of the magnitude of the price movement expected by option traders. This price range can be imputed from the break even points of the at-the-money straddle in the front most options. As shown in the graph below, this analysis gives a current expected price range of 167-203 following earnings release.

Now let us consider a double calendar spread with strikes selected to encompass this anticipated price range. To review quickly, a calendar spread consists of selling a short dated option while buying a longer dated option at the same strike price. An example of such a trade in NFLX is presented below:

That looks pretty sweet, right? We have projected break even points of 147.3 and 238.86 and a probability of profit (P.P.) of 100%. So all we have to do is put this on, wait for earnings, and barring any huge surprise, we take profit of 100% or more home.

What could possibly go wrong? Unfortunately there is a high probability of a sequence of events that will totally erase any profits and likely result in a loss. Go back and look at the option pricing matrix above and focus on the IV of the options we are buying. These options trade at a volatility of 60%. Is that high or low? You tell me from this historic graph of volatility in NFLX options:

As you can see, the current level of volatility that you are buying in the long legs of the calendar is quite elevated on a historical basis. Furthermore, the spread between statistical (historical) and implied volatilities has rarely been greater. This combination of events sets up a high probability of a “volatility crush” on the options you hold long as part of the spread. The moving parts of this crush are:

1. Cessation of the “bleeding” of juiced IV from the weeklies into the monthly series as the weekly option IV deflates massively.

2. Convergence of IV toward the value of historical volatility in order to close the huge divergence in the levels currently present.

This situation sets up a high probability for a negative impact on the trade which will almost certainly result in a loss. Do I know these events will transpire? Absolutely not, and I may be 100% wrong. Survival as an options trader is all about recognizing high probability events and structuring trades accordingly. No free cheese here; time to move along to the next trade.

If you would like to receive these reports please join my free newsletter: http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/profitable-options-solutions.php
J.W. Jones

Why I left ‘The Left’ — Exhibit CW for Class Warfare

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Actually, I wanted to call this one Exhibit IC for incessant whining, but I did not want to sound like a total jerk. However, this is exactly what this little piece is here.

It appears that some liberal wife of some hard working person feels that her man is not getting his fair share of the pot. She writes over at the liberal Blog FireDogLake:

This morning my husband got up at 5:00 a.m. to work outside in 7 degree F temperatures. He sat on the end of the couch, head in his hands sipping his coffee telling me how much he hates his job. How much it’s wearing him out. He makes $29.00 dollars an hour. Roughly $60,000 a year. He’s a union electrician. His health care premiums come out of his pay check; it is NOT subsidized by his “company.” His disability comes out of his pay check. It is NOT subsidized by his company.

I don’t think most people understand this about the unions. These men get paid what they do because they are subsidizing their own care. Men in suits thinks he makes too much money. Men in suits think he doesn’t deserve health care or disability, that he’s just a body to use and abuse.

They tell the men to talk about safety on their own time, not to take up time they could be “producing” to discuss “safety issues”. They don’t want to spend money on his safety or breaks for his aching back or freezing fingers. My husband worries if he takes too much time to warm up that they might lay him off. The men in suits know he is afraid, they even tease him about lay offs from warm offices when he walks through to take his 15-minute break. The high cost of labor, entitlement. The men in suits make you focus on the unions with their high paying jobs while they sit in offices pushing pencils making eight times the amount that my husband makes. Risking far less in stress and safety than my husband. And complaining about the high cost of labor.

First, before I rip this poor woman to shreds here, let me say something. Please note that I am very sympathetic to the working person’s cause — really, I am. I am one of those working man types myself. What troubles me about this entire piece is this; it sounds like this woman is whining about her husband actually having a job. Furthermore, this piece is your a-typical mentality of the liberals in this Country — and that is that the little person is being jacked around by the big, evil, corporate America. What these mentally depraved people do not seems to realize is this; if it were not for businesspersons, who decide to take risks and employ people like her husband, to build projects, like the one that he is working on, those hardworking people — would be unemployed.

Secondly, I find this piece to be offensive for another reason. This is where I might just run afoul of Conservatives who read this blog. I have been unemployed since 2005. This partially could be considered my fault and partially it could be blamed on the piss poor economy here in Michigan. The unemployment rate here in Michigan is I believe 30% or so. I believe I could find you a group of men here in Michigan, which would just love to have this man’s job that he has grown to hate. I know that I personally live very well at $60.000 per year and not complain one bit. The point I am trying to make is this, this man took this job knowing what it entailed and knows what is required of him. If he cannot handle that job, perhaps he should try finding something else, possibly even trying another career.

I hate to sound like some heartless jerk, which sits in some ivory tower somewhere and writes dismissively of some person who is really struggling to make it. Because that is not what I am — I am simply someone who has had my own share of problems in the past, when it comes to unemployment and when I see someone moaning and complaining about actually having job — I just really have to speak up and say trying living in my shoes for a while. I could really understand if this would have been written pre-stock market flash crash and economic recession, but it was not. There are some people out there that have it a hell of a lot worse that this person and his whining wife. I happen to be one of them and I think that this man and his wife both ought to be a bit more appreciative of what they do have, instead of whining about what they have to so-called “Suffer” through.

Just my thoughts on that one, and believe me, this comes from someone who is not even being counted among the 9% in America unemployed. They only count those who are collecting benefits. I collect none.  I will not bother to even comment on the part where it says that the man was breaking the law, by giving free electricity to people that he knows. I mean, if that is not self explanatory, I do not know what is. 🙄

How a Simple Line Can Improve Your Trading Success

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Elliott Wave International’s Jeffrey Kennedy explains many ways to use this basic tool
January 19, 2011

By Elliott Wave International

The following trading lesson has been adapted from Jeffrey Kennedy’s eBook, Trading the Line – 5 Ways You Can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading Decisions. Now through February 7, you can download the 14-page eBook free. Learn more here.

“How to draw a trendline” is one of the first things people learn when they study technical analysis. Typically, they quickly move on to more advanced topics and too often discard this simplest of all technical tools.

Yet you’d be amazed at the value a simple line can offer when you analyze a market. As Jeffrey Kennedy, Elliott Wave International’s Chief Commodity Analyst, puts it:

“A trendline represents the psychology of the market, specifically, the psychology between the bulls and the bears. If the trendline slopes upward, the bulls are in control. If the trendline slopes downward, the bears are in control. Moreover, the actual angle or slope of a trendline can determine whether or not the market is extremely optimistic or extremely pessimistic.”

In other words, a trendline can help you identify the market’s trend. Consider this example in the price chart of Google.

That one trendline — drawn between the lows in 2004 and the lows in 2005 — provided support for a number of retracements over the next two years.

That’s pretty basic. But there are many more ways to draw trendlines. When a market is in a correction, you can draw a trendline and then draw a parallel line: in turn, these two parallel lines can create a channel that often “contains” the corrective price action. When price breaks out of this channel, there’s a good chance the correction is over and the main trend has resumed. Here’s an example in a chart of Soybeans. Notice how the upper trendline provided support for the subsequent move.

For more free trading lessons on trendlines, download Jeffrey Kennedy’s free 14-page eBook, Trading the Line – 5 Ways You Can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading Decisions. It explains the power of simple trendlines, how to draw them, and how to determine when the trend has actually changed. Download your free eBook.

Long-Term Bonds: The Best Possible Investment? Think Again

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A free Club EWI report reveals why bonds do not provide shelter from the storm
December 23, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

TREASURIES — the very name conveys a thing that is secure, protected, and will appreciate over time. Otherwise, it’d be called something like “TRASHeries” or “Mattress Stuffers.” Then, there’s the official seal of the US Department of Treasury: its image of a scale and a key symbolize “balance” and “trust.”

And, finally, there’s the mainstream economic experts who have it on good authority that long-term bonds increase in value during financial instability and uncertainty.

On this, the following news items from November-December 2010 reflect the enduring faith in fixed-income assets as the ultimate safe-havens:

  • “Bonds Tumble On Signs of Economic Recovery” (Reuters)
  • “US Treasury Prices Rise as traders positioned for negative headlines….” (Associated Press)
  • “Treasury’s rise as investors sought shelter in safe haven assets amid rising fears about sovereign debt woes in the eurozone. The slow motion train wreck is likely to play out over year end as each country plays musical chairs with solvency. The market’s concern here is ‘What is next?’ The 10-year Treasury yield will fall if the problems get worse from here.” (Wall Street Journal)

There’s just one problem with this notion: namely, bonds (of any denomination) do NOT have a built-in disaster premium. This is the myth-busting revelation of the latest, free report from Elliott Wave International. The resource titled “The Next Major Disaster Developing For Bond Holders” includes a thoughtful selection of various EWI publications that expose the very real vulnerability of bond markets to economic downturns.

The premier study on the subject comes from Chapter 15 of EWI President Robert Prechter’s book Conquer The Crash by way of this memorable excerpt:

“If there is one bit of conventional wisdom that we hear repeatedly with respect to investing, it is that long-term bonds are the best possible investment [in downturns]. This assertion is wrong. Any bond issued b a borrower who can’t pay goes to zero in a depression. Understand that in a [major contraction], no one knows its depth and almost everyone becomes afraid. That makes investors sell bonds of any issuers that they fear could default. Even when people trust the bonds they own, they are sometimes forced to sell them to raise cash to live on. For this reason, even the safest bonds can go down, at least temporarily, as AAA bonds did in 1931 and 1932.

The first chart (see below) shows what happened to bonds of various grades in the deflationary crash. And the second chart (see below) shows what happened to the Dow Jones 40-bond average, which lost 30% of its value in four years. Observe that the collapse of the early 1930s brought these bonds’ prices below — and their interest rates above — where they were in 1920 near the peak in the intense inflation of the ‘Teens.”


That’s just the tip of this myth-busting report. “The Next Major Disaster” uncovers flaws in other widely-accepted bond lore, including these two assumptions:

  • High -yield bonds rise during economic expansions
  • AND — municipal bonds provide a steady refuge in times of economic stress.

Read more about Robert Prechter’s warnings for holders of municipals and other bonds in his free report: The Next Major Disaster Developing for Bond Holders. Access your free 10-page report now.

Investing Advice: Trading the Holiday Grind

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It’s that time again when volume dries up and prices rise into the new year. A lot of individuals are scrambling to prepare for the holidays, even though we had a year to prepare. The big money has already done most of their year end shuffling and will be taking it easy until January.

The market is overbought and sentiment readings are at extreme levels which in the past have been the start of large sell offs and even bear markets. While I am keeping a close eye for a top, there is not much we can do but stay long stocks and commodities until the market tips its hand and distribution selling is in control. The U.S. federal government is the only wild card going into year end that should be on traders’ radars. They have been doing a great job boosting prices in the equities and commodities market, but can they continue to hold things up when the big money and the proverbial herd start unloading positions in 2011?   — Please, Click here to read the rest.

Personal Advice from ME: If you are small time stock investor, GET OUT NOW!

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…and here is why….

This comes via Gateway Pundit, who is one hell of a great blogger:

The story via the U.K. Telegraph:

US Treasuries last week suffered their biggest two-day sell-off since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. The borrowing costs of the government of the world’s largest economy have now risen by a quarter over the past four weeks.

Such a sharp rise in US benchmark market interest rates matters a lot – and it matters way beyond America. The US government is now servicing $13.8 trillion (£8.7 trilion) in declared liabilities – making it, by a long way, the world’s largest debtor. Around $414bn of US taxpayers’ money went on sovereign interest payments last year – around 4.5 times the budget of America’s Department of Education.

Debt service costs have reached such astronomical levels even though, over the past year and more, yields have been kept historically and artificially low by “quantitative easing (QE)” – in other words, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s virtual printing press. Now borrowing costs are 28pc higher than a month ago, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 3.33pc last week, an already eye-watering debt service burden can only go up.

Few on this side of the Atlantic should feel smug. The eurozone’s ongoing sovereign debt debacle has pushed up Germany’s borrowing costs by 27pc over the last month – to 3.03pc. The market has judged that if Europe’s Teutonic powerhouse wants the single currency to survive, it will ultimately need to raise wads of cash to absorb the mess caused by other member states’ fiscal incontinence…

…Some say that growing signs of a US economic recovery are positive for stocks, which means money is being diverted out of Treasuries, so lowering their price, which pushes up yields. That’s wishful thinking. Sovereign borrowing costs have just surged in the US – and therefore elsewhere – because a politically-wounded President Obama caved-in and extended the Bush-era tax cuts, combining them with a $120bn payroll tax holiday…

…The market is increasingly alarmed at the rate of increase of the US government’s already massive liabilities. America’s government debt is set to expand by a jaw-dropping 42pc over the next few years, reaching $19.6 trillion by 2015 according to Treasury Department estimates presented (amid very little fanfare) to Congress back in June. Since then, government spending has risen even more. So US debt service costs, like those of many other Western nations, are expanding rapidly in terms of both the volumes of sovereign instruments outstanding, and the yields on each bond.

You know what that means? It means that if you are a small time investor; that you need to get out of the Market NOW! This could have a huge impact on the market, and you could lose very big. I do virtual trading and so far, I have done well on my trades. But I am not about to lose my shirt, so, I ordered a sell off of everything. Now the big time guys will be able to afford to ride this out, because they have the wealth to spare. But the small time people will get burned. The best thing I can tell you small times investors, is to dump your shares and put it all into Gold. That would either be into EFT‘s or real actual Gold.

Disclaimer: I do not claim to be a expert on the subject of stocks, trading or even Gold. However, it does stand to reason that when such news as this is report, that it will affect the U.S. markets and the United States financial system. I do however, promote a great investment advice service called Elliotwave. You might want to check it out.

Video: Representative Ron Paul on Wikileaks “Lying is not Patriotic”

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Yes Please: Ron Paul says Wikileak the Fed!

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Via Alternative Right:

Update: Thank you to voters at Reddit! You all are amazing… 😀

Here’s my stats screen as of a few hours ago:

Thanks so much you all. I will try to continue to post stuff like this, that everyone over at Reddit can enjoy. 🙂

Stock, Gold and Oil Trading Advice: Gold/Silver – Controlling Your Trades, Money & Emotions

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Last week we had typical pre-holiday light volume trading going into US Thanksgiving. The previous week I warned every one to trade with extreme caution because of the light volume and the fact that the market is on the verge of a sizable drop for both stocks and commodities. Any price action could not be taken seriously because of the light volume. We will not know until later this coming week what the big money wants to do… Buy or Sell, also what the manipulators will do… Seems like there are a lot of wild cards out there with Europe issues and both unemployment and payroll numbers out on Friday morning.

Below are a few charts showing my intermediate term outlook for gold and silver.

Gold & Silver Futures – Daily Chart
You can see both metal are showing a possible reversal head and shoulders pattern. While they have yet to confirm and close below the neck line we must be aware of this pattern and the risk/potential it provides us with. Both metals are still in an uptrend but showing signs of weakness.

US Dollar Index – Weekly Chart
This chart is not really that helpful for trading stocks, commodities or options right now but I wanted to post it because it allows me to show you how I analyze the market and my trades.

As you can see, the past 3 weeks have been in a strong uptrend reaching the first resistance level. The point of this chart is to show you that if you step out to the next longer time frame you can get a solid feeling of where an investment will find major support and resistance levels. Any investment not matter if it’s a stock, commodity or currency, if the price is trading in the middle of a large range like this chart you should not be taking large positions because it almost becomes a 50/50 bet on the market which is not a good winning strategy unless you are very experienced at managing your trades and money.

If you are going to trade then you want to focus on the underlying trend and you do that by looking at the next larger time frame. For example: if you focus on trading the daily chart, then you must step back each week and review the weekly chart to be sure you are trading with the underlying trend which is up for the dollar right now.

Weekend Trading Ideas:
Tuesday morning we saw the SP500 gap lower and continue to sell off. Traders started panicking out of their long positions and we could see it using the intraday market internals charts, which I cover each morning in the pre-market trading videos. Me being a contrarian (buying into market fear, selling into market strength) I used that high level of fear in the market along with the expected light volume holiday week ahead as an excuse to book profits near the lows on SP500 using the SDS bear fund allowing us to profit from the falling market. I feel we are going to have some crazy moves on the markets going into year end and it should be a lot of fun if done correctly.

Trading in general is a very difficult task especially if you are doing it for a living and planning on using your monthly income to pay bills, salaries etc… We all know the stress which comes with trading and if do not have a solid trading strategy, rules and cannot properly manage yourself (emotions) then you are most likely running into problems like over-trading, getting shaken out of trades easily, and taking bigger risks than your account can handle. Each of these cause more traders to blow up their accounts and big up on trading.

I am giving away my book on how you can control your trades, money and emotions. This short and to the point guide is full of my trading techniques, tips and thoughts which will help you get a handle of your emotions turning the market noise into music.

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For great stock, gold and oil trading tips; Please, click here to sign up for this great service for the day trader!

Man, I thought I was an asshole

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This guy here, makes me look like a boy scout! Seriously. 😯

In all honesty, I am quite shocked that someone has not taken the law into their own hands and popped the guy. (and if you do not know what I mean by “popped the guy”, look it up……)

I mean, I admit that I use the “Google Juice”; But I use it for pretty much honest purposes. Which is blog promotion and so forth. This is guy is using Google to outright defraud people, which is morally wrong.

Either way, it is a perfect example of bad or evil capitalism. Yes, I do believe there is such a thing. The man is a scam artist. I am all for Business, Capitalism, and making money — but in a honest and legal manner. Not like this; that is dishonest and is illegal and this guy should be cooling his heals in a jail cell somewhere.

The biggest issue about this guy and his little scam operation; is that it makes honest, hard working small business owners look horrible. Because seeing that the New York Times is reporting it; it will be framed in the manner that the readers will believe that ALL business owners are like that. That my friends is simply just not the truth; not everyone is out to screw the customer like that.

Hell, I used to run a business, a very small one; but just the same, it was a small business and I went out of my way to make sure that my customers were always happy. As a result of that, many of them would come looking for me and would ask me, if I could get them what they wanted and I usually was able to get them what they wanted. I used to be in the Electronics Business. I sold CB radios and Accessories, at one time. I took care of my customers. If I could not beat the big guy’s prices, I would tell them and they usually would get it from the other person.

However, there were times when I could I get a good deal on something and I would pass it on to my customers. The point here that I am trying to make is this; this idiot is making a mockery of the business would. He is a rude jerk and is getting away with it. Not to mention the legality of what he is doing. But above all, it just makes small business owners look bad, and that my friends is just not good. Something should be done about him and quickly.

Others: The Huffington Post, Althouse, Runnin’ Scared, Bark Bark Woof Woof and The New Republic, BuzzMachine, Deep Jive Interests, Elliott C. Back and Gadgetopia

Video: Max Keiser’s Call: Crash JP Morgan Buy Silver

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This comes via GoldSilver.com:

Quote:

Mike Maloney was recently in Europe working on his next top-secret project. While passing through France, Mike got the chance to visit with the one and only Max Keiser.

Intelligent, witty, and never bashful, Max Keiser is pure financial entertainment. With over 25 years of experience with markets and finance, Max often draws from first hand experiences when providing his listeners explicit insights on how the financial markets truly operate.

He has been described as a film producer, a journalist, and as JP Morgan and friends are now finding out, an activist investor with powerful ideas on how the masses can help themselves in taking their financial power back.

The Video:

The time in invest in gold and silver is now! Click here to find out how!

Stock Advice: S&P 500, Treasuries, Gold, & Dollar are At Key Price Levels

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A new article by a new author:

Thursday was another example of Mr. Market playing games with traders and investors as equities and precious metals took part in a strong rally. Some market prognosticators noted short-term oversold conditions across the board while others discussed the potential for a strong reversal that could potentially take out recent highs. In addition to the regular banter, to the average retail investor the market sure looks rigged when the government decides to sell a large stake in a massive IPO offering and a shaky tape suddenly becomes stronger than garlic.

There is a lot going on in the news as of late, and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts looms large on the minds of many, particularly small business owners. So the real question becomes, what should traders be watching or paying attention to before the light volume Thanksgiving week? The answer is simple, watch the tape! The market will provide plenty of clues and it will eventually tip its hand, experienced traders will wait for this process to unfold.

At this point in time, it is a bit early to begin making predictions as to which direction the equities market will go. What we do know is that the market was oversold in the short-term, so this could be a pause before prices turn lower. In contrast, this could be the beginning of another bullish move breaking recent highs on its way to a “Santa Claus” rally. My stance is neutral at this point in time; S&P 1200 should offer significant overhead resistance while S&P 1170 / 50 period moving average is near term support. The chart listed below illustrates these key levels:

S&P 500

If price were to break out above S&P 1200 on strong volume, it is likely that we will see a retest of the recent highs around the 1220 area. Consequently, if price tests the S&P 1170 area and fails price will likely be magnetized to the 1140-1150 area. We will have our answers in due time, but until a definite direction is known, patience is warranted.


Treasuries

As discussed in my previous article, the ProShares Ultra Short 20+ year treasury ETF (TBT) bounced off of the 36 level and put on a short lived rally only to settle toward the bottom 1/3 of its recent price range. After the recent breakout, it would be constructive to see TBT consolidate before confirming a direction. The chart below shows the key levels on TBT:

U.S. Dollar

Instead of illustrating a gold chart, let us focus our attention on the U.S. Dollar Index. The chart below shows the dollar has pulled back and is now testing the 50 period moving average. I am anticipating a retest of the recent breakout over double tops and this key level is illustrated below. If support holds firm, higher prices for the U.S. Dollar in the near term will be likely.

The Contrarian Trade

Thursday’s price action in the S&P 500 offers a great example of the power of options, which are traditionally overlooked by most equity traders or investors. While I did not personally enter this trade, I did enter a short position with tight stops around the S&P 1197 level using futures contracts for a short term trade. I was looking for a short term decline which we subsequently received in the aftermarket and my limit orders were triggered.

The option trade that I discussed with one of my trading buddies and mentor, involved getting short Apple (AAPL) when its price was around $309.50/share. While I did not place this trade as I felt I had plenty of short side exposure via my e-mini futures position, the trade would have worked quite well. So the trade listed below is not a recommendation, but an illustration of how options can be a contrarian traders’ best friend.

AAPL has been trading in the $300 – $320 per share range for several weeks having broken out above $320 only to be smacked down into the range. During the recent selloff, AAPL crossed down through the $300 level only to encounter strong buying that pushed it above the key $300 area by the close of trade that day. Thursday’s rally had AAPL trading above $309.50/share and the 20 period moving average was right around the 310 level as can be seen from the chart below.

The 20 period moving average provides an adept option trader with a key level which he/she can define the risk of a short position using options. Through the utilization of a contingent stop based on AAPL’s stock price, a trader using this setup could place a stop around the $311.25 area to define their ultimate risk. As of Thursday, the AAPL weekly options that expire November 26 began trading.

The trade listed below is a put debit spread:

Buy 1 AAPL Nov. 26 310 Weekly Put – $5.00 / contract based on Thursday’s close
Sell 1 AAPL Nov. 26 300 Weekly Put – $1.47 / contract based on Thursday’s close

AAPL stock closed around $308.43 / Share

The profitability chart reflecting this trade is below:

The maximum risk this trade has per leg was around $350, however through the use of the contingent stop around $311.25, the risk per leg is around $150. The maximum gain would be $650 per leg if at expiration in one week AAPL was trading below $300/share. In the first hour of trading, AAPL sold off below $306 per share. If an option trader had more than one contract on, he/she could take partial profits and place a stop at the entry price insuring a winning trade and allowing room for the trade to run.

Obviously the trader may want to adjust his/her stop based on market conditions, but this is simply an example of what can be accomplished with options. Once the trader understands how to determine the risk that an option trade assumes, he/she can build trade constructions to fit nearly any trading style or strategy. For a contrarian trader, options offer an unbelievable opportunity to mitigate risk and maximize profits. Learning how to trade options does take time and effort, but the potential returns options offer when they are used appropriately are unparalleled.

Get more great articles like this, by going here.

Disclosure: Clicking on this link and signing up for the service results in a small compensation to yours truly at not additional cost to the consumer

MarketWatch engages in Federal Reserve propaganda

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This is pretty sad considering who owns the website:

Then there is this:

Gold has become highly prized bling, as anxious and astute buyers alike, from hedge-fund players to central bankers, flock to the “currency of fear.” Gold at around $1,400 an ounce is almost double what it commanded two years ago, and gold’s price is up almost 25% so far this year alone.

It’s been a great ride. Except gold is a bad investment.

Gold’s feverish run has made a lot of people a lot of money, and though the rally has taken a breather in the last few days, there’s no shortage of flag-waving supporters who claim gold is on a march to $1,600, $1,800, $2,000 and beyond. After all, gold is still well below its 1980 peak, when it was worth around $2,300 an ounce in today’s dollars.

….and this:

“Mercury poisoning,” is the answer from Barry Ritholtz, the very outspoken CEO and director of equity research at Fusion IQ, when asked where Zoellick’s idea might have come from.

Zoellick, also a former Treasury official in the Reagan administration and managing director at Goldman Sachs, made his suggestion in an op-ed in the Financial Times last Sunday, just days ahead of the Group of 20 major countries meeting in Seoul.

The suggestion was made to world leaders in order to address “global imbalances,” the diplomatic expression being used to refer to the impact of China’s vastly undervalued renminbi on other countries’ competitiveness.

All of the above is pure garbage. Gold is a hedge against inflation and the dollar. Do not listen to the Statists who want to seize all of the gold and give you a worthless dollar.

By the way, here is some SOUND investment advice pertaining to Gold:

There have been some major trend changes recently and it looks as though more investments are about to follow. The real question though is… Are You Ready To Take Advantage Of It?

It has been an exciting ride to say the least with the equities and metals bull market and the plummeting dollar. But it looks as though their time is up, or at least for a few weeks. Traders and investors will slowly pull money off the table to lock in gains or cut losses and re-evaluate the overall market condition before stepping back up to the plate and taking another swing.

Below are a few charts showing some possible money making trade ideas in the weeks ahead.

TBT 20+ Treasury Note Inverse Fund

This fund moves inverse to the price of the 20yr T.N’s also known as bonds. Looking at the chart you can see the recent reversal which took place. We had a great entry point shortly after this reversal took place using my low risk setup strategy.

Falling bond prices are considered to have a negative impact on equities because it implies that interest rates may start rising which means more investors will pull money out of stocks and put that money into a safe interest earning investment. You will typically see bonds change direction before equities. That being said the chart below is an inverse fund, so when this bond fund goes up, it means actually indicates bond yields are falling. I will admit these inverse funds really throw my brain for a loop at time… I prefer the good old days, buying long and selling short… so simple and clean… —- Read the rest Here

I ask you, go read the rest of that; listen to people, like the man at this link, who want to see you make and keep your money. Not force you to trust in an unsound money system, like the United States Dollar.  If you are not interested in FTS’s and would to buy actual Gold, then try this link here.

In fact, here is a video that explain why you should own Gold and Silver:

Is it not just good common sense to have a backup plan? Do not delay, invest in Gold and Silver today.

Please Note: In the interest of full disclosure — There are links in this blog posted that if click on and product bought or signed up for, will result in the compensation of myself. This will come with no price increase to the customer at all.  Think of it, as an easy way to support this blog and yours truly.


Quote of the Day

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“These men are NOT incompetent or stupid. If they were merely stupid, they would occasionally make a mistake in our favor.” That comment was made by James Forrestal concerning International Communism being promoted by our politicians in the early 1950’s. It isn’t being politically correct to refer to SOCIALISM as COMMUNISM, however, according to the Communist Manifesto the United States has already become a communist nation. If you have your little pocket size “CITIZENS RULE BOOK,” look on page 8, at the SUMMARY OF THE COMMUNIST MANIFESTO, which states “The Communist Manifesto represents a misguided philosophy, which teaches the citizens to give up their rights for the sake of the common good, but it always ends in a police state. This is called preventive justice. Control is the key concept.” In the September issue of NEWSWATCH Magazine titled “The Ten Planks That Are Destroying Our Country – COMMUNIST MANIFESTO.” The article warns us that Americans believe that Communism is dead, but Communism has just become more politically correct.

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The Church was composed of benefactors who did not exercise authority but provided all the social welfare of the people through the perfect law of liberty by faith, hope and charity. That took real faith and doing, forgiveness and giving, sacrifice and love. Being a Christian was not as easy as modern Christians would like to believe.

Instead the modern church sends people to eat at the tables of those socialist benefactors who exercise authority one over the other which makes the word of God to none effect. They were warned that those tables served deceitful meats,[34] that they were a snare[35] and a trap.[36]

The religion practiced today is done at the government temples which provide for the needy of modern society. Those administrators are the priests of the people’s true religion and their government is the new Pharisees of the Coercive Church established by men. Their schemes of social security are formed like those of Herod and the Pharisees and again make the word of God to none effect. What they do on Sunday is just to ease their own conscience or tickle their ears with false hopes so they may give heed to fables, and commandments of men, that turn from the truth.[37]

Christ meant His Church to set the table of the Lord through faith, hope and charity. To depend on the welfare of rulers was to again become entangled in the bondage of their world.[38] Christ came to open our eyes to the sin common in the history of men and to set us free if we will repent.[39]

As we see the unrighteous mammon failing,[40] it is time for the people and the ministers of their church to repent and seek the Kingdom of God and His righteousness so that they will be suitable for more righteous habitations.

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Please Note: I do not agree with all of the viewpoints presented in this video. Like the one that says A.D.H.D. is a myth. I’ve had A.D.H.D. for all my life. I know it is not a myth. However, there are some things in this video, that are not a myth and are legitimate viewpoints.  As always around here. I post and report and you decide.

Stock Trading Advice: SPX’s Running Correction, Gold’s Setup, Oil Explodes!

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The financial markets continue to climb the wall of worry on the back of more Fed Quantitative Easing. Those trying to pick a top in this choppy bull market may prove to be correct for a couple hours but over time the shorts continue to get clobbered.

Quantitative easing was enough to turn gold back up and gave oil just enough of a nudge to breakout of its cup and handle pattern explained later.

The past few weeks the number of emails I receive on a daily basis about what individuals should do about short positions they took on their own has growing quickly. Usually when my inbox starts to fill up with traders holding heavy losses trying to pick a top I know something big is about to happen and its not going to be in the favor of the herd (everyone shorting). In the past couple week there have been some great entry points for the broad market whether its to buy the SP500, Dow, NASDAQ or Russell 2K. I focus on trading with the trend and entering on extreme sentiment readings as shown in the chart below.

Extreme Trend Trading Analysis

Below are my main market sentiment indicators for helping to time short term tops and bottoms. That being said I don’t pick short term tops in hopes to profit on the down side. Rather I wait for a extreme sentiment bottom to be put in place, then enter long with the up trend (Buy Low).

Once there is a 1-2% surge in price and sentiment indicators are showing a short term top I like to pull a little money off the table to lock in some profits while still holding a core position (Sell High). This is exactly what I/subscribers have done over the last couple weeks. This is a simple yet highly effective strategy and works just as well in a down trend except I focus on shorting extreme sentiment bounces. Subscribers know what these indicators are as I cover them each week in my daily pre-market trading videos as we prepare for the day ahead. —- Read The Rest Here

Video: Rick Santelli on what the Tea Party means to him

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Via OUR LIVES, OUR FORTUNES & OUR SACRED HONOR:

Oil, Gold and Stock Advice: The Market Continues The FOMC March Upward and Crowd Patterns

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With the election over and congress divided, it may be difficult for the president to get much done. None of this will take affect until the near year but traders are asking the big question… Will the government work together as a team or will it be a stalemate?

Today’s whipsaw action after the FOMC statement shook things up as it always does. We saw gold, silver, the dollar, SP500 and bond prices go haywire. It took about 30 minutes for the market to digest this news in that time a lot of people lost money because of the wide price swings. Trading around news, I find, is a net losing trade over the long run and I advise never to do it. Rather wait for a trend to form and trade any low risk setups that come your way.

I truly believe that the market has already priced in most news and events which unfold, and that news tends to agree with the overall trend of the market. Of course there will be short term blips on the charts from the news, but they tend to be minor setbacks in the underlying market trend. That being said, the trend is our friend, and while so many are trying to pick a top in the equities market it makes me cringe because they are fighting the trend and the Fed.

Read The Rest Here

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In my recent forecast updates for my subscribers and also in my free articles online, I have expounded on the virtues of Elliott Wave Theory, which I use as my linchpin for my short and long term views. To wit, back in August 2009 I made it clear that we would enter a five year period of a massive move up in both Gold and Gold Stocks. Gold was $900 an ounce at the time, and is now at $1360 an ounce. I made that forecast based on human behavioral patterns that go back centuries. Crowds love to all act like a swarm of bees flying together. Everyone hates stocks or sectors when they are down, and the crowd loves them when they are up or going up. Investors like to chase stocks and sectors when they are up high and running near parabolic, but they don’t like to buy large dips or consolidations ahead of moves. Once you learn that Elliott Wave patterns and a few other indicators sprinkled in can give you a heads up on when the crowd is about to jump in, you can basically front run the crowds.

I digress and go back to the Gold Bull Market. The reason I knew in August of 2009 that from $900 Gold we would enter a five year “massive” Bull Run is due to crowd patterns. To refresh, I see Gold as being in a Fibonacci 13 year cycle up that started in 2001. The first five years not too many investors participate in the Bull Run because the prior 20 did nothing. By the time everyone realized in 2006 that Gold mutual funds had compounded 30% a year for five years, it was too late to jump in. Of course, that is when everyone started buying Gold mutual funds and stocks. The problem is the first move was over, and we had 3 Fibonacci years of chop with no net gains. The crowd gives up around the summer of 2009, and that is when I forecasted a huge five year move to come. So far Gold is up over 50% in 13 months and Gold Stocks are up well north of that. The junior stocks started expanding in volume and price months ago, and that should have been yet another wake up call to investors.

Read the Rest Here

Get ALL of the gold, silver, oil and ETF trading advice here!