How a Simple Line Can Improve Your Trading Success

Elliott Wave International’s Jeffrey Kennedy explains many ways to use this basic tool
January 19, 2011

By Elliott Wave International

The following trading lesson has been adapted from Jeffrey Kennedy’s eBook, Trading the Line – 5 Ways You Can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading Decisions. Now through February 7, you can download the 14-page eBook free. Learn more here.

“How to draw a trendline” is one of the first things people learn when they study technical analysis. Typically, they quickly move on to more advanced topics and too often discard this simplest of all technical tools.

Yet you’d be amazed at the value a simple line can offer when you analyze a market. As Jeffrey Kennedy, Elliott Wave International’s Chief Commodity Analyst, puts it:

“A trendline represents the psychology of the market, specifically, the psychology between the bulls and the bears. If the trendline slopes upward, the bulls are in control. If the trendline slopes downward, the bears are in control. Moreover, the actual angle or slope of a trendline can determine whether or not the market is extremely optimistic or extremely pessimistic.”

In other words, a trendline can help you identify the market’s trend. Consider this example in the price chart of Google.

That one trendline — drawn between the lows in 2004 and the lows in 2005 — provided support for a number of retracements over the next two years.

That’s pretty basic. But there are many more ways to draw trendlines. When a market is in a correction, you can draw a trendline and then draw a parallel line: in turn, these two parallel lines can create a channel that often “contains” the corrective price action. When price breaks out of this channel, there’s a good chance the correction is over and the main trend has resumed. Here’s an example in a chart of Soybeans. Notice how the upper trendline provided support for the subsequent move.

For more free trading lessons on trendlines, download Jeffrey Kennedy’s free 14-page eBook, Trading the Line – 5 Ways You Can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading Decisions. It explains the power of simple trendlines, how to draw them, and how to determine when the trend has actually changed. Download your free eBook.

Long-Term Bonds: The Best Possible Investment? Think Again

A free Club EWI report reveals why bonds do not provide shelter from the storm
December 23, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

TREASURIES — the very name conveys a thing that is secure, protected, and will appreciate over time. Otherwise, it’d be called something like “TRASHeries” or “Mattress Stuffers.” Then, there’s the official seal of the US Department of Treasury: its image of a scale and a key symbolize “balance” and “trust.”

And, finally, there’s the mainstream economic experts who have it on good authority that long-term bonds increase in value during financial instability and uncertainty.

On this, the following news items from November-December 2010 reflect the enduring faith in fixed-income assets as the ultimate safe-havens:

  • “Bonds Tumble On Signs of Economic Recovery” (Reuters)
  • “US Treasury Prices Rise as traders positioned for negative headlines….” (Associated Press)
  • “Treasury’s rise as investors sought shelter in safe haven assets amid rising fears about sovereign debt woes in the eurozone. The slow motion train wreck is likely to play out over year end as each country plays musical chairs with solvency. The market’s concern here is ‘What is next?’ The 10-year Treasury yield will fall if the problems get worse from here.” (Wall Street Journal)

There’s just one problem with this notion: namely, bonds (of any denomination) do NOT have a built-in disaster premium. This is the myth-busting revelation of the latest, free report from Elliott Wave International. The resource titled “The Next Major Disaster Developing For Bond Holders” includes a thoughtful selection of various EWI publications that expose the very real vulnerability of bond markets to economic downturns.

The premier study on the subject comes from Chapter 15 of EWI President Robert Prechter’s book Conquer The Crash by way of this memorable excerpt:

“If there is one bit of conventional wisdom that we hear repeatedly with respect to investing, it is that long-term bonds are the best possible investment [in downturns]. This assertion is wrong. Any bond issued b a borrower who can’t pay goes to zero in a depression. Understand that in a [major contraction], no one knows its depth and almost everyone becomes afraid. That makes investors sell bonds of any issuers that they fear could default. Even when people trust the bonds they own, they are sometimes forced to sell them to raise cash to live on. For this reason, even the safest bonds can go down, at least temporarily, as AAA bonds did in 1931 and 1932.

The first chart (see below) shows what happened to bonds of various grades in the deflationary crash. And the second chart (see below) shows what happened to the Dow Jones 40-bond average, which lost 30% of its value in four years. Observe that the collapse of the early 1930s brought these bonds’ prices below — and their interest rates above — where they were in 1920 near the peak in the intense inflation of the ‘Teens.”


That’s just the tip of this myth-busting report. “The Next Major Disaster” uncovers flaws in other widely-accepted bond lore, including these two assumptions:

  • High -yield bonds rise during economic expansions
  • AND — municipal bonds provide a steady refuge in times of economic stress.

Read more about Robert Prechter’s warnings for holders of municipals and other bonds in his free report: The Next Major Disaster Developing for Bond Holders. Access your free 10-page report now.

Investing Advice: Trading the Holiday Grind

It’s that time again when volume dries up and prices rise into the new year. A lot of individuals are scrambling to prepare for the holidays, even though we had a year to prepare. The big money has already done most of their year end shuffling and will be taking it easy until January.

The market is overbought and sentiment readings are at extreme levels which in the past have been the start of large sell offs and even bear markets. While I am keeping a close eye for a top, there is not much we can do but stay long stocks and commodities until the market tips its hand and distribution selling is in control. The U.S. federal government is the only wild card going into year end that should be on traders’ radars. They have been doing a great job boosting prices in the equities and commodities market, but can they continue to hold things up when the big money and the proverbial herd start unloading positions in 2011?   — Please, Click here to read the rest.

Gold and Stock Advice: Playing new fear in equities markets

So far this week we have been seeing fear creep in the equities market. This Wednesday we started to see fear (green indicator) reach a level which tells me to start looking for the market to bottoming. I do follow a few other charts and indicators which warn me of a possible trend reversal (high probability setup) before it takes place but the US Dollar and selling volume are key.

As we all know, when the market is trying to top and roll over it tends to be more of a process than a couple day event. It’s this lengthy topping process which has a lot of choppy price action sucking traders into a position much to early or shakes you out of the position before the market does what you anticipated. Knowing that tops tend to drag out for an extended period of time is critical for an options trader simple because of Theta (time decay)

On the flip side, bottoming is more of an event because it tends to happen after a strong wave of panic selling. Fear is the most powerful force in the market (other than the Fed/Manipulators.. but that’s another topic). That being said, when you know what to look for in bottoms you can generally see the market starting to bottom and prepare for it. — Read More Here

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Disclaimer: Quite bluntly, I post these articles to make money; period. The posting of this and other articles is in no means to be considered a endorsement of the ideas and investment strategies. In other words, if you try this and lose your butt; do not come crying to me or wanting me to refund your money. Because it is not going to happen, period.

UPDATEDBREAKING NEWS: FORMER DETROIT MAYOR KWAME KILPATRICK & OTHERS INDICTED ON LITANY OF FEDERAL CHARGES — Video of Press Conference Added

INDICTED!

Finally…. Justice is starting to be served here in Detroit.

There is news of it from all over the place in Detroit.

First Video from WXYZ-TV in Detroit:

Next Video from FOX 2 in Detroit:

Update: Here is that actual presser announcing said charges against all involved:

Here are the actual pages of the indictment itself: (via WDIV-TV)

READ PAGES 1-8 of Federal Indictment: Kilpatrick Charged With Conspiracy, Fraud, Extortion

READ PAGES 9-16 of Federal Indictment: Kwame Federal Indictment: Pages 9-16

READ PAGES 17-25 of Federal Indictment: Kwame Federal Indictment: Pages 17-25

READ PAGES 25-32 of Federal Indictment: Kwame Federal Indictment: Pages 25-32

READ PAGES 33-40 of Federal Indictment: Kwame Federal Indictment: Pages 33-40

READ PAGES 41-48 of Federal Indictment: Kwame Federal Indictment: Pages 41-48

I think it would be fair to point out that Kwame Kilpatrick was and still is a REGISTERED DEMOCRATIC PARTY MEMBER!

The Detroit Free Press reports:

A federal grand jury today indicted former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, his father and three former top aides on racketeering charges, accusing them of turning the mayor’s office into a criminal enterprise to enrich themselves, families and friends.

Besides the now-jailed former mayor, the 38-count indictment names his father, Bernard Kilpatrick, city contractor Bobby Ferguson, former top Kilpatrick aide Derrick Miller and former water department chief Victor Mercado in one of the largest public corruption investigations ever in the City of Detroit.

The indictment outlined four general areas of misconduct.

It said the defendants extorted money from municipal contractors, state and non-profit donors and engaged in bribery and extortion involving other public contracts and investments.

The indictment said that Ferguson kicked back at least $424,000 in cash and other items of value to the mayor and that Kilpatrick used more than $590,000 in cash derived from the conspiracy to pay his credit card bills, purchase cashier’s checks and clothing and repay loans.

Bernard Kilpatrick, the indictment said, deposited more than $600,000 in cash into his personal bank accounts. He was charged with three counts of filing false tax returns for calendar years 2004, 21005 and 2007.

The penalties for the charges laid out in the indictment range from three to 30 year in prison.

I believe it also would be fair to point out that this is what happens when you have the mentality THAT YOU ARE BLACK AND THAT YOU ARE ENTITLED! This sort of mentality, for what it is worth; dates back to the days of the Coleman A. Young administration. The difference is that Kwame was not able to pay the feds off, like Mayor Young was able to do. Further more, from what I heard at the presser, that Kwame and friends were even doing this sort of that back when Kwame was a state representative.

The Detroit News Reports the list of people, besides Kilpatrick, who have been charged…..so far:

Karl Kado: The former Cobo contractor, who has said in sworn testimony he made illegal cash payments to former Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, remains a key government witness and got three years probation.

Glenn Blanton: The former Cobo Center director who admitted taking illegal payments from Kado was sentenced to one year in prison for obstruction of justice.

Lou Pavledes: Another former Cobo director who admitted taking bribes from Kado, Pavledes got 14 months for a banking offense.

James R. Rosendall Jr.: The former Synagro Technologies Inc. vice president became an FBI informant and got 11 months for bribery.

Rayford W. Jackson: The Detroit businessman who was Synagro’s local partner is serving a five-year sentence for bribery.

Monica Conyers: The former Detroit city councilwoman who cast the deciding vote in favor of the $1.2 billion Synagro deal was sentenced to 37 months in prison for bribery.

Jerry M. Rivers: A former member of the mayor’s executive protection unit, Rivers pleaded guilty to bribery in connection with a city land sale and was sentenced to 12 months in prison.

Kandia Milton: A childhood friend and top aide to Kilpatrick, Milton pleaded guilty to bribery in connection with the city’s sale of Camp Brighton and was sentenced to 14 months in prison.

DeDan Milton: Another longtime friend of Kilpatrick, who like his brother is cooperating with prosecutors, is to be sentenced to 42 months in prison for bribery.

Sam Riddle: The political consultant and former top aide to Monica Conyers pleaded guilty to a felony conspiracy charge in May and was sentenced to 37 months in prison.

Mary Waters: Pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor tax charge in May in connection with the Southfield case and was sentenced to one year of probation.

William Lattimore: The former Southfield city councilman pleaded guilty to bribery after he was picked up on a wiretap of Riddle’s cell phone. Lattimore was sentenced to 18 months in prison.

Marc Andre Cunningham: A former aide to Kilpatrick, he pleaded guilty to a bribery charge in November and awaits sentencing Feb. 10.

Brian Dodds: Co-owner of Howell-based D&R Earthmoving LLC, he pleaded guilty to concealing a crime in connection with an inflated contract Kilpatrick pal Bobby Ferguson received. He is to be sentenced Jan. 10. Ferguson has been indicted on multiple counts and awaits trial.

Rodney Burrell: The head of Northville-based R&R Heavy Haulers pleaded guilty to concealing a crime in connection with the same bid-rigging on the Ferguson contract. He is to be sentenced in March.

Hopefully and I do mean hopefully; this will send a message to anyone who seeks office in the city of Detroit — that if you run for public office and you decide to break the law, that you will be caught and you will be charged and that you will end up and jail.

Although, I will not lie to you; I have sinking suspicion that somebody somewhere, will play the race card and point out that the people filing these charges are mostly White and latino and will somehow or another convince a judge to throw out the case.  I do truly hope that I am wrong about this, I really do. Because Detroit has been rife with corruption for much, much too damned long. Many people, for many, many years have gotten very wealthy by corrupt means in Detroit for much too long —- while the rest of the City of Detroit falls into ruin. It is morally wrong and these turkeys that broke the law ought be jailed for the longest terms possible.

Hopefully, and I mean this one, with all the sincerity that I can muster — as a former resident of that city — this will close the chapter of the culture of corruption in that City and that the City of Detroit can finally, and I do mean finally get on with the business of restoring that City to its once great status. This might be a small step, but it is a very important one and God-willing it will be the first big one.

Personal Advice from ME: If you are small time stock investor, GET OUT NOW!

…and here is why….

This comes via Gateway Pundit, who is one hell of a great blogger:

The story via the U.K. Telegraph:

US Treasuries last week suffered their biggest two-day sell-off since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. The borrowing costs of the government of the world’s largest economy have now risen by a quarter over the past four weeks.

Such a sharp rise in US benchmark market interest rates matters a lot – and it matters way beyond America. The US government is now servicing $13.8 trillion (£8.7 trilion) in declared liabilities – making it, by a long way, the world’s largest debtor. Around $414bn of US taxpayers’ money went on sovereign interest payments last year – around 4.5 times the budget of America’s Department of Education.

Debt service costs have reached such astronomical levels even though, over the past year and more, yields have been kept historically and artificially low by “quantitative easing (QE)” – in other words, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s virtual printing press. Now borrowing costs are 28pc higher than a month ago, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 3.33pc last week, an already eye-watering debt service burden can only go up.

Few on this side of the Atlantic should feel smug. The eurozone’s ongoing sovereign debt debacle has pushed up Germany’s borrowing costs by 27pc over the last month – to 3.03pc. The market has judged that if Europe’s Teutonic powerhouse wants the single currency to survive, it will ultimately need to raise wads of cash to absorb the mess caused by other member states’ fiscal incontinence…

Some say that growing signs of a US economic recovery are positive for stocks, which means money is being diverted out of Treasuries, so lowering their price, which pushes up yields. That’s wishful thinking. Sovereign borrowing costs have just surged in the US – and therefore elsewhere – because a politically-wounded President Obama caved-in and extended the Bush-era tax cuts, combining them with a $120bn payroll tax holiday…

The market is increasingly alarmed at the rate of increase of the US government’s already massive liabilities. America’s government debt is set to expand by a jaw-dropping 42pc over the next few years, reaching $19.6 trillion by 2015 according to Treasury Department estimates presented (amid very little fanfare) to Congress back in June. Since then, government spending has risen even more. So US debt service costs, like those of many other Western nations, are expanding rapidly in terms of both the volumes of sovereign instruments outstanding, and the yields on each bond.

You know what that means? It means that if you are a small time investor; that you need to get out of the Market NOW! This could have a huge impact on the market, and you could lose very big. I do virtual trading and so far, I have done well on my trades. But I am not about to lose my shirt, so, I ordered a sell off of everything. Now the big time guys will be able to afford to ride this out, because they have the wealth to spare. But the small time people will get burned. The best thing I can tell you small times investors, is to dump your shares and put it all into Gold. That would either be into EFT‘s or real actual Gold.

Disclaimer: I do not claim to be a expert on the subject of stocks, trading or even Gold. However, it does stand to reason that when such news as this is report, that it will affect the U.S. markets and the United States financial system. I do however, promote a great investment advice service called Elliotwave. You might want to check it out.

Investment Advice: How a “Dull” Investment Can Be a Great Investment

How a “Dull” Investment Can Be a Great Investment

…until it isn’t any more. An important story for today’s bond investors.

December 9, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

I spent my childhood discussing the stock market at the dinner table. My dad was a stock broker, and he loved to “tell the story” of the stocks he recommended to customers — a story that included critical information about the industry, the products, earnings, and the outlook for the future. Most children might find it dull, but I was mesmerized.

As I got older and talked with friends about investing, I’d light up when the topic was stocks. Who in the world couldn’t get excited about analyzing companies to decide which ones could make you money! When the conversation turned to bonds, however, I would shut down. Bonds? How dull; how utterly boring. There’s no story to tell, no industry trends to follow. I saw bonds as an interest check every six months, then a return of principal when they mature. BORING.

Over the past few years, I’ve read article after article about investors getting out of the stock market in favor of bonds. I understood the reasons for getting out of the stock market, but the thought of moving into bonds baffled me. Interest rates were very low, and I knew that when the rates started going up, bond prices would go down; a simple inverse relationship. I started investing in the mid-80s, when rates were at the highest point of the past 50 years — who would buy bonds now, when yields are at the lowest levels in half a century? There’s no place for your principal to go but down, I thought.

So I went back and talked with my friends some more, to see if there was something I was missing with these “dull investments.”

Turned out, my friends had moved their money into bonds after they lost over 30% in stocks during 2008. They told me that bonds had gone up in value. I was astonished.

So I started looking into it. They were right! I thought bond yields could go no lower than they were two years ago, yet they did, In turn, that brought the prices — i.e., the principal on their investment — up!

I asked what kind of bonds they got into. “High-yield bond funds,” was the answer. What kind of bonds are these funds invested in? To this question I got blank stares. How long do you plan on staying in these funds? This got the reply I was afraid I’d hear: “Why would we get out when they are so much safer than stocks?” That’s when my new interest in these once boring investments turned to fear — for my friends.

First of all, the simple idea that a rise in interest rates would cause their principal to fall worried me. But my greater fear was that they did not even know what types of bonds they were invested in!

Elliott Wave International’s president Robert Prechter has followed this new investment trend closely in his monthly Elliott Wave Theorist. This quote is from the October 2010 issue:

A fifth consecutive major disaster is developing for investors. History shows that investors have been attracted like moths to a flame to four consecutive pyres: the NASDAQ in 2000, real estate in 2006, the blue chips in 2007 and commodities in 2008. Now they are flitting across the veranda to a mesmerizing blue flame: high yield bonds.

Bonds pay high yields when the issuers are in deep trouble and cannot otherwise attract investment capital. The public is chasing a large return on capital without considering return of it.

You can learn more about what Prechter’s market analysis says for bond investors now — free. We’ve recently released a 10-page report, “The Next Major Disaster Developing for Bond Holders” free to members of Club EWI.Discover why Prechter says that, “The public always does the wrong thing.” Follow this link to access this free online report right now.

Gold & Stock Trading Advice: Is The Herd Trading Gold & SP500?

Over the past 2 weeks we have seen the market sentiment change three times from extreme bullish to bearish and back to bullish as of today. Normally we don’t see the herd (average Joe) switch trading directions this quickly. Over the past 10 years I found that the average time for the herd to reach an extreme bullish or bearish bias takes between 4-6 weeks in length. It is this herd mentality which makes for some excellent trend trading opportunities. But with the quantitative easing, thinner traded market, and lack of trading participants (smaller herd) I find everyone is ready to change directions at the drop of a hat.

The old school traders/investors who don’t use real-time data or charts, and who dabbled in stock picks, and options trades here and there have mostly exited the trading arena from frustration or losing to much money. This group accounted for a decent chuck of liquidity in the market and was also the slowest of the herd to change directions.

The new school, today’s smaller herd is much more aggressive and quicker to act on market gyrations. I think this is because the only people left in the market are those who make a living pulling money from the market and those who feel they are really close to mastering the stock market. It is these individuals who are using trading platforms with real-time data, charts and scanners to help get a pulse on the market so they can change directions when the big boys do. I feel this is the reason why the market is able to turn on a dime one week to another over the past 8 months… The easy prey (novice and delayed data traders) are few and far between and the fight to take money for other educated traders seems to be getting a little more interesting to say the least.

Anyways, enough about the herd already…

It’s been an interesting week thus far with stocks and commodities. The week started with a large gap up only for strong selling volume to step in and reverse direction the following day. It is this negative price action that starts to put fear into the market triggering a downward thrust in the market. During an up trend which we are in now, I look for these bearish chart patterns to form as they tend to trigger more selling the following days which cleanses the market of weak positions. Once a certain level of traders have been shaken out of their positions and are entering positions in order to take advantage of a falling market, that’s when we get the next rally, catching the majority of traders off guard as they panic to buy back their short positions. It’s this short covering which sparks a strong multi day rally and kicks off the new leg up in the market.

Currently we getting some mixed signals. The market sentiment is the most bullish it has been since 2007, just a little higher than the Jan & March highs this year. This makes me step back and think twice about taking any sizable long positions. Any day now the market could roll over. Another bearish signal is the fact that we just had a very strong reversal day for stocks and metals to the down side. That typically leads to more selling.

But if we look at the positive side of things, the trend is still up, this is typically a strong time for stocks as we go into Christmas/Holiday season, also the market breadth is really strong with the number of stocks hitting new highs has really taking off.

SP500 – Daily Chart

Below you can see the reversal candles along with short term and intermediate support levels. Although the market sentiment is screaming a correction is near, we must realize that sentiment can remain at this level for an extended period of time while the market continues to trend. This is one of the reasons why we say “The Trend Is Our Friend”.

I am hoping for a pullback and would like to see market sentiment shift enough on an intraday basis to give us a low risk entry point.

Gold – Daily Chart

A reversal candle is seen as a sell signal or a profit taking pattern. Short term aggressive trades use these to lock in quick price movements. With so many traders watching gold, it caused a flood of sell orders to push gold down today.

Mid-Week Conclusion:

In short, each time we see some decent selling in the market its get bought back up. Today was another perfect example as we had an early morning sell off, then a light volume rally for the second half of the session and a end of day short squeeze during the last 30 minutes. Gold has pulled back to the first short term support level. Because of the large following in gold I would like to see if there will be another day of follow through selling before possibly looking to take a trade.

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For more stock and gold trading advice, please, check out The Oil and Gold Guy’s website!

Stock Advice: S&P 500, Treasuries, Gold, & Dollar are At Key Price Levels

A new article by a new author:

Thursday was another example of Mr. Market playing games with traders and investors as equities and precious metals took part in a strong rally. Some market prognosticators noted short-term oversold conditions across the board while others discussed the potential for a strong reversal that could potentially take out recent highs. In addition to the regular banter, to the average retail investor the market sure looks rigged when the government decides to sell a large stake in a massive IPO offering and a shaky tape suddenly becomes stronger than garlic.

There is a lot going on in the news as of late, and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts looms large on the minds of many, particularly small business owners. So the real question becomes, what should traders be watching or paying attention to before the light volume Thanksgiving week? The answer is simple, watch the tape! The market will provide plenty of clues and it will eventually tip its hand, experienced traders will wait for this process to unfold.

At this point in time, it is a bit early to begin making predictions as to which direction the equities market will go. What we do know is that the market was oversold in the short-term, so this could be a pause before prices turn lower. In contrast, this could be the beginning of another bullish move breaking recent highs on its way to a “Santa Claus” rally. My stance is neutral at this point in time; S&P 1200 should offer significant overhead resistance while S&P 1170 / 50 period moving average is near term support. The chart listed below illustrates these key levels:

S&P 500

If price were to break out above S&P 1200 on strong volume, it is likely that we will see a retest of the recent highs around the 1220 area. Consequently, if price tests the S&P 1170 area and fails price will likely be magnetized to the 1140-1150 area. We will have our answers in due time, but until a definite direction is known, patience is warranted.


Treasuries

As discussed in my previous article, the ProShares Ultra Short 20+ year treasury ETF (TBT) bounced off of the 36 level and put on a short lived rally only to settle toward the bottom 1/3 of its recent price range. After the recent breakout, it would be constructive to see TBT consolidate before confirming a direction. The chart below shows the key levels on TBT:

U.S. Dollar

Instead of illustrating a gold chart, let us focus our attention on the U.S. Dollar Index. The chart below shows the dollar has pulled back and is now testing the 50 period moving average. I am anticipating a retest of the recent breakout over double tops and this key level is illustrated below. If support holds firm, higher prices for the U.S. Dollar in the near term will be likely.

The Contrarian Trade

Thursday’s price action in the S&P 500 offers a great example of the power of options, which are traditionally overlooked by most equity traders or investors. While I did not personally enter this trade, I did enter a short position with tight stops around the S&P 1197 level using futures contracts for a short term trade. I was looking for a short term decline which we subsequently received in the aftermarket and my limit orders were triggered.

The option trade that I discussed with one of my trading buddies and mentor, involved getting short Apple (AAPL) when its price was around $309.50/share. While I did not place this trade as I felt I had plenty of short side exposure via my e-mini futures position, the trade would have worked quite well. So the trade listed below is not a recommendation, but an illustration of how options can be a contrarian traders’ best friend.

AAPL has been trading in the $300 – $320 per share range for several weeks having broken out above $320 only to be smacked down into the range. During the recent selloff, AAPL crossed down through the $300 level only to encounter strong buying that pushed it above the key $300 area by the close of trade that day. Thursday’s rally had AAPL trading above $309.50/share and the 20 period moving average was right around the 310 level as can be seen from the chart below.

The 20 period moving average provides an adept option trader with a key level which he/she can define the risk of a short position using options. Through the utilization of a contingent stop based on AAPL’s stock price, a trader using this setup could place a stop around the $311.25 area to define their ultimate risk. As of Thursday, the AAPL weekly options that expire November 26 began trading.

The trade listed below is a put debit spread:

Buy 1 AAPL Nov. 26 310 Weekly Put – $5.00 / contract based on Thursday’s close
Sell 1 AAPL Nov. 26 300 Weekly Put – $1.47 / contract based on Thursday’s close

AAPL stock closed around $308.43 / Share

The profitability chart reflecting this trade is below:

The maximum risk this trade has per leg was around $350, however through the use of the contingent stop around $311.25, the risk per leg is around $150. The maximum gain would be $650 per leg if at expiration in one week AAPL was trading below $300/share. In the first hour of trading, AAPL sold off below $306 per share. If an option trader had more than one contract on, he/she could take partial profits and place a stop at the entry price insuring a winning trade and allowing room for the trade to run.

Obviously the trader may want to adjust his/her stop based on market conditions, but this is simply an example of what can be accomplished with options. Once the trader understands how to determine the risk that an option trade assumes, he/she can build trade constructions to fit nearly any trading style or strategy. For a contrarian trader, options offer an unbelievable opportunity to mitigate risk and maximize profits. Learning how to trade options does take time and effort, but the potential returns options offer when they are used appropriately are unparalleled.

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Stock, Oil and Gold trading advice: How long and how high for Gold, and how to play it

Regular readers of my articles on Gold over the past few years know that I have a theory on this Gold Bull market. In summary, it’s that we are in a 13 Fibonacci year uptrend that started in 2001, and now we are in the final 4 years of that uptrend. It is in this last 5 year window that I theorized started in August of 2009 that investors really get involved. As the crowd comes in, prices push higher and higher, and then more and more investors come in and so forth.

The very recent rally has pushed us up to about $1,420 per ounce, on the way to my projected $1480-$1520 pivot highs on this leg from the $1040 area in February of this year. Subscribers to my TMTF newsletter have learned about Elliott Wave Theory and how to properly apply it to benefit from both the ups and the downs in various parts of the markets, as well as commodities and precious metals. If I am correct, we are in the 3rd wave up of 5 total waves from the August 2009 $900 per ounce levels. The first leg went from $900 to $1225, the second leg was corrective to $1,040, and now this 3rd wave should complete at around 150% of the 1st wave’s amplitude. In English, the probabilities are for Gold to continue higher to about $1527 per ounce, possibly a tad higher if the typical Elliott Wave patterns take hold, and also assuming again that I am correct in my read of those patterns.

One of the better ways to play this next 4 years of upside with intervening corrections is to look at prospect generator companies. These are Gold, Silver, and Copper explorers that do the early field work in identifying prospects for drilling. They then farm out these projects to willing partners and retain equity stakes and /or percentiles of the project itself. This reduces their need for capital while retaining nice upside for shareholders, and diversifying. When you are a tad long in this current wave pattern’s tooth, this is way to stay onboard, but not go overboard. I have personal ownership positions in a few of these types of companies, and my subscribers are aware of the few that we really prefer. Should one of the projects not pan out, you are not placing your entire shareholder bet on one drill project, and yet if they hit on a few, the upside can be substantial.  – Read the Rest

Stock Trading Advice: SPX’s Running Correction, Gold’s Setup, Oil Explodes!

The financial markets continue to climb the wall of worry on the back of more Fed Quantitative Easing. Those trying to pick a top in this choppy bull market may prove to be correct for a couple hours but over time the shorts continue to get clobbered.

Quantitative easing was enough to turn gold back up and gave oil just enough of a nudge to breakout of its cup and handle pattern explained later.

The past few weeks the number of emails I receive on a daily basis about what individuals should do about short positions they took on their own has growing quickly. Usually when my inbox starts to fill up with traders holding heavy losses trying to pick a top I know something big is about to happen and its not going to be in the favor of the herd (everyone shorting). In the past couple week there have been some great entry points for the broad market whether its to buy the SP500, Dow, NASDAQ or Russell 2K. I focus on trading with the trend and entering on extreme sentiment readings as shown in the chart below.

Extreme Trend Trading Analysis

Below are my main market sentiment indicators for helping to time short term tops and bottoms. That being said I don’t pick short term tops in hopes to profit on the down side. Rather I wait for a extreme sentiment bottom to be put in place, then enter long with the up trend (Buy Low).

Once there is a 1-2% surge in price and sentiment indicators are showing a short term top I like to pull a little money off the table to lock in some profits while still holding a core position (Sell High). This is exactly what I/subscribers have done over the last couple weeks. This is a simple yet highly effective strategy and works just as well in a down trend except I focus on shorting extreme sentiment bounces. Subscribers know what these indicators are as I cover them each week in my daily pre-market trading videos as we prepare for the day ahead. —- Read The Rest Here

Video: Rick Santelli on what the Tea Party means to him

Via OUR LIVES, OUR FORTUNES & OUR SACRED HONOR:

President Barack Obama delivers the President’s weekly address

Transcript Via The White House:

Remarks of President Barack Obama

Weekly Address

The White House

November 6, 2010

This week, Americans across the country cast their votes and made their voices heard. And your message was clear.

You’re rightly frustrated with the pace of our economic recovery. So am I.

You’re fed up with partisan politics and want results. I do too.

So I congratulate all of this week’s winners – Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. But now, the campaign season is over. And it’s time to focus on our shared responsibilities to work together and deliver those results: speeding up our economic recovery, creating jobs, and strengthening the middle class so that the American Dream feels like it’s back within reach.

That’s why I’ve asked to sit down soon with leaders of both parties so that we can have an extended discussion about what we can do together to move this country forward.

And over the next few weeks, we’re going to have a chance to work together in the brief upcoming session of Congress.

Here’s why this lame duck session is so important. Early in the last decade, President Bush and Congress enacted a series of tax cuts that were designed to expire at the end of this year.

What that means is, if Congress doesn’t act by New Year’s Eve, middle-class families will see their taxes go up starting on New Year’s Day.

But the last thing we should do is raise taxes on middle-class families. For the past decade, they saw their costs rise, their incomes fall, and too many jobs go overseas. They’re the ones bearing the brunt of the recession. They’re the ones having trouble making ends meet. They are the ones who need relief right now.

So something’s got to be done. And I believe there’s room for us to compromise and get it done together.

Let’s start where we agree. All of us want certainty for middle-class Americans. None of us want them to wake up on January 1st with a higher tax bill. That’s why I believe we should permanently extend the Bush tax cuts for all families making less than $250,000 a year. That’s 98 percent of the American people.

We also agree on the need to start cutting spending and bringing down our deficit. That’s going to require everyone to make some tough choices. In fact, if Congress were to implement my proposal to freeze non-security discretionary spending for three years, it would bring this spending down to its lowest level as share of the economy in 50 years.

But at a time when we are going to ask folks across the board to make such difficult sacrifices, I don’t see how we can afford to borrow an additional $700 billion from other countries to make all the Bush tax cuts permanent, even for the wealthiest 2 percent of Americans. We’d be digging ourselves into an even deeper fiscal hole and passing the burden on to our children.

I recognize that both parties are going to have to work together and compromise to get something done here. But I want to make my priorities clear from the start. One: middle class families need permanent tax relief. And two: I believe we can’t afford to borrow and spend another $700 billion on permanent tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires.

There are new public servants in Washington, but we still face the same challenges. And you made it clear that it’s time for results. This a great opportunity to show everyone that we got the message and that we’re willing, in this post-election season, to come together and do what’s best for the country we all love.

Thanks.

Video: The Southern Avenger on ‘Mismeasure of a Conservative’

Transcript Here

Watch all of the Southern Avenger’s Videos by going here.

Video: Gold and Silver Manipulation Exposed by GATA

An interesting video:

Get this DVD by clicking here

Invest in Silver and Gold, by Clicking Here

Reason Magazine profiles Detroit, Here is what they missed

It seems that Reason Magazine has decided that it is Detroit’s time in the barrel.  They have produced a video detailing another rightfully named “Boondoggle” of a light rail system.  It appears that the funding for this project is coming from the United States Government and by proxy — yours and mine pocketbooks and Taxes.

I noticed in the video of theirs, that they used an old promo video, made in 1965 by the city of Detroit.  For what it is worth; that video was made for the luring of the International Olympic Committee to Detroit; of which I am very to report that the committee saw right through that silly propaganda film and passed on Detroit.  Which proves to this writer that the people at the Olympic committee are much smarter than the then Mayor of Detroit, gave them credit for being.  I mean, could you have seen the Olympics being held in Detroit?  The metals themselves would have never made it out alive.  I could just see it now, “Your Medal, or your life cracka!”  It is quite the horrifying thought actually.

First, here is Reason TV’s video:

Now for what they missed; in 1967 there was a horrific riot here in Detroit.  It has been called the 1967 Detroit race riot.  The riot itself was started after the City of Detroit’s Police Department raided an after-hours blind pig.  Now, keep in mind, the police were simply doing their jobs.  They were tipped off to an illegal drinking establishment, which, for what it is worth —- only catered to black people; and they raided the place.  During the raid, a scuffle broke out, between the police and the persons being raided, somehow during that scuffle; a police officer’s guns went off and thus gave catalyst to one of worst riots in the history of the Country —- not mention the city of Detroit —– a rumor.  The rumor was that a black man that was arrested during raid of the blind pig was laying face down on the sidewalk, with his hands cuffed behind his back; was shot at point blank range in the back of the head, by a uniformed Detroit Police officer.

Now there is only one little inconvenient truth to this sickening and most awful rumor —- not a word of it was even remotely true. — It was this rumor, which was circulated among the Detroit black population, in a rather short amount of time; that was the proverbial kerosene on the bonfire for the City of Detroit in 1967 and as a result; all hell broke loose in Detroit.  This was the result:

(More Photos can be found by going here)

If I sat here and said that all of the above was done by blacks — I would be straight up lying to you.  It has been widely reported around here, and there were outside forces that egged on, supported, and even contributed to the huge riot.  Anarchists from various states were believed to have come to Detroit and joined in the riot —- we call those people libertarian leftists today.  Although, I like to call these people something different —- Anti-American.

Here is a groovy little video that shows just went on here in Detroit in 1967 —- with music from Detroit’s own MC5:

The riot stopped after the then Mayor of Detroit, Jerome Cavanagh, a Democrat, stopped cowering behind his desk, at the prospect of so many out of control blacks; and actually called the Governor of Michigan, George W. Romney, a Republican and begged for the National Guard to be brought in to stop the rioting.  Which is so typical of the liberal Democrats, they make a mess of things and then call in the adults to clean up the mess, which is what we have in Washington DC right now!  Anyone who would doubt my words, I will personally give you the “real world” tour of Detroit and show you just how bad the children Democrats have ruined that city.  I ought to know, I did live there at one time, like many other people from this area.

It is fair to note, however, that the riot in Detroit was not the first one.  There were actually three —- 1863, 1943, and 1967 respectively.  They all had the same things in common; blacks who were under the impression that they were being oppressed somehow or another —- or as it is commonly known in proper English as being a selfish ingrate.  I mean, we allowed them to migrate to Detroit from places like Alabama, where they were getting lynched on a regular basis, gave them jobs based on their skill levels; which were, honestly, not that very high — but yet, they were being oppressed by the white man.  The blacks at time said that they wanted social justice, which means, in normal human speak, “I want what you have, but I do not want to have to actually earn it or work for it, I want it given to me.”  This is pretty much the hallmark of the Democratic Party, is it not?

It happened around this time in 1967.  Many of the white immigrants, who fled Germany and the surrounding countries, after the horrific collapse of the Weimar Republic began to really think that this whole idea of blacks and whites living in Detroit in sweet and loving harmony —- was nothing more than a pipe dream and began to flee the city Detroit.  I kid you not; entire Churches, Synagogues, and Families — everything beat a path out of Detroit like cockroaches scattering in sudden daylight. Now, the Democrats have long said this was because these people were racist.  However, let me ask you a question.  If an angry black man came tearing up your street and wanted to toss a Molotov cocktail through the front window of your house or through the window of your store, for no reason other than a silly rumor — would you not have second thoughts about wanting to keep your store or possibly even your family in that city?  I think the answer to that question is obvious.

In closing, while the Reason Magazine video was great, it missed one important piece of the puzzle.  Detroit did not just end up in its current condition for no reason; it had help and it was not an overnight thing, it has been happening for years.  In addition, there is not one thing to blame, but a plethora of things to blame; politics, corruption, riots, unions — all of it have contributed to Detroit’s demise.  Not to mention race, it is a factor; but to scapegoat one race for the demise is wrong-headed.  This is why the Neo-Nazi Klan hates me so much, because I disagree with and mock their folly with great joy.  In other words, not just blacks destroyed Detroit.  It was all of races, taking what they could get for themselves and then fleeing to their perspective corners of the state and allowing the inner city to rot.  All the while painting over the rot and justifying it as some sort of community project.  As they say, you can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig.  You can put socialist programs into a city that is beyond saving; but the city, along with its rot and failures are still there.  You would think that after some 43 years after those race riots; Detroit’s leadership and Michigan’s leadership would have figured that out by now.

Dr. Ron Paul’s Speech to the Virginia Tea Party

(H/T The Daily Paul)

This is from October 9, 2010.

Just a couple bones of contention with the above:

  • Paul’s assertion that unborn life should be protected by the Federal Government is absurd. I do not believe that the Federal Government has the right or the obligation to protect much of anything at all; except those things outlined in the United States Constitution — nothing more, nothing less. What Dr. Paul is doing here is repeating the nonsense of the Christian Right. Which is, as far as this writer is concerned, pure rubbish. If people believe the practice of Abortion is such a horrific thing, let them rise up and organize, and challenge the STATES to outlaw the practice of abortion.  Keep the Federal Government out of the business of the people’s bodies.
  • Paul’s idea that we should eliminate all Government programs like Social Security, is unrealistic; and it would hurt people — like my parents, who paid into the program for years. Does Ron Paul want to harm my parents? I would hope not.
  • Paul’s idea of trust and friendship with all Countries is naive at best. The inconvenient truth is that there are Countries and Regimes out there that want nothing more, than for the United States of America to be utterly and totally destroyed.  Even China is now worrying the Military leaders, as there seems to be those within the Chinese Military who see the United States as an enemy. This should worry many Americans, as we do borrow large amounts of money from this Country. Let us also not forget what happened to John Birch in that Country as well. There is also the terrorism argument as well; but I am fully aware that much of that, is due to our foreign policy decisions of the past. However, for us to foolishly assume that if we tell Islamic terrorists that we do not wish to harm them, that they will not attack us again, would be an exercise in extreme stupidity.
  • As a Paleo-Conservative type; I disagree with Ron Paul’s idea of unfettered Capitalism, AKA Globalism. I believe that globalism has hurt this Country, namely the economy here in the Detroit, Michigan area. TAFTA, NAFTA and all the rest of these idiotic free trade agreements should be repealed and heavy tariffs should be imposed on anyone that wishes to manufacture product outside of the United States of America and import it into this Country.

All of the rest, I pretty much agree with, especially when it comes to fiscal policy and the federal reserve.

Gold and Stock Advice: Gold Stocks, SP500 & the Dollar – What’s Next?

Some good stuff to read here:

Investors around the globe are concerned with the economic outlook, not only with the United States but with virtually every country. This has caused not only investors but banks and countries to start buying gold & silver in order to be protected incase of a currency melt down in the coming years.

While the majority is concerned about the eroding economy, we have seen the opposite in the financial market. Gold and equities have risen… That being said the volume in the market remains light simply because the average investor is no longer putting money into the market for long term growth. Instead individuals are now focusing on saving and paying down debt.

That being said we all know light volume market conditions allow Wall Street powerhouses to bid the market up. Not to mention with quantitative easing taking place I’m sure that has also helped the market of late. While we don’t know for sure that QE is taking place as we speak, the sharp drop in the dollar and strong move up in gold are pricing this into the market.

via Gold Stocks, SP500 & the Dollar – What’s Next?

Get more great advice like this by clicking here.

News: Mid-Week Market Report on SP500, Oil, Gold & Dollar

Some interesting news:

Wednesday the market didn’t tell us anything new. The equities market is still over extended on the daily chart but the market is refusing to break down. Each time there has been seen selling in the market over the past two weeks, the market recovers. Equities and the dollar have been trading with an inverse relationship and it seems to drop every in value each selling pressure enters the market, which naturally lifts stocks.

That being said, sellers are starting to come into the market at these elevated levels and it’s just a matter of time before we see a healthy pullback/correction. The past 10 session volatility has been creeping up as equities try to sell off. There will be a point when a falling dollar is not bullish for stocks but until then it looks like printing of money will continue devaluing of the dollar to help lift the stock market. Some type of pullback is needed if this trend is to continue and the markets can only be held up for so long.

Below is a chart of the USO oil fund and the SPY index fund. Crude has a tendency to provide an early warning sign for the strength of the economy. As you can see from the April top, oil started to decline well before the equities market did. This indicated a slow down was coming.

The recent equities rally which started in late August has been strong. But take a look at the price of oil. It has traded very flat during that time indicating the economy has not really picked up, nor does it indicate any growth in the coming months. This rally just may be coming to an end shortly.

Read the restHere.

The G.O.P’s “Pledge to America” is nothing more retread Neo-Conservative, Theocracy nonsense

This is pretty rich; The Republican Party is trotting out the same old George W. Bush style of Governence, with some new promises. Promises that the Republican Party actually expect the American people to believe that they will actually keep.

Let us go through this thing, shall we?

This comes Via CBS NEWS:

CBS News has obtained a final draft of House Republicans’ legislative agenda for the next Congress, a 21-page "Pledge to America" that they will formally unveil Thursday morning at a Virginia hardware store.

"The need for urgent action to repair our economy and reclaim our government for the people cannot be overstated," the introduction says.

It continues: "With this document, we pledge to dedicate ourselves to the task of reconnecting our highest aspirations to the permanent truths of our founding by keeping faith with the values our nation was founded on, the principles we stand for, and the priorities of our people. This is our Pledge to America."

Let look at this thing shall we? I mean, I need a good laugh! I will spare you the hum drum, "Patriot" sounding nonsense and puffery, and I will get to the meat and point out the crap.

We pledge to honor families, traditional marriage, life, and the private and faith-based organizations that form the core of our American values.
We pledge to make government more transparent in its actions, careful in its stewardship, and honest in its dealings.
We pledge to uphold the purpose and promise of a better America, knowing that to whom much is given, much is expected and that the blessings of our liberty buoy the hopes of mankind.
We make this pledge bearing true faith and allegiance to the people we represent, and we invite fellow citizens and patriots to join us in forming a new governing agenda for America.

Hmmm, Sounds like they want to turn America into a theocracy. 

Continuing:

Permanently Stop All Job-Killing Tax Hikes: We will help the economy by permanently stopping all tax increases, currently scheduled to take effect January 1, 2011. That means protecting middle-class families, seniors worried about their retirement, and the entrepreneurs and family-owned small businesses on which we depend to create jobs in America.

• Give Small Businesses a Tax Deduction: We will allow small business owners to take a tax deduction equal to 20 percent of their business income. This will provide entrepreneurs with a much-needed infusion of capital for investment and new hiring.

• Rein In the Red Tape Factory in Washington, DC: Excessive federal regulation is a de facto tax on employers and consumers that stifles job creation, hampers innovation and postpones investment in the economy. When the game is always changing, small businesses cannot properly plan for the future. To provide stability, we will require congressional approval of any new federal regulation that has an annual cost to our economy of $100 million or more. This is the threshold at which the government deems a regulation “economically significant.” If a regulation is so “significant” and costly that it may harm job creation, Congress should vote on it first.

• Repeal Job-Killing Small Business Mandates: One of the most controversial mandates of the Democrats’ government takeover of health care requires small businesses to report to the Internal Revenue Service any purchases that run more than $600. This 1099 reporting mandate is so overbearing that the IRS ombudsman has determined that the agency is ill-equipped to handle all the resulting paperwork.. We will repeal this job-killing small business mandate.

This was all promised before and never was enacted.

Act Immediately to Reduce Spending: There is no reason to wait to reduce wasteful and unnecessary spending. Congress should move immediately to cancel unspent “stimulus” funds, and block any attempts to extend the timeline for spending “stimulus” funds. Throwing more money at a stimulus plan that is not working only wastes taxpayer money and puts us further in debt.

• Cut Government Spending to Pre-Stimulus, Pre-Bailout Levels: With common-sense exceptions for seniors, veterans, and our troops, we will roll back government spending to pre-stimulus, pre-bailout levels, saving us at least $100 billion in the first year alone and putting us on a path to begin paying down the debt, balancing the budget, and ending the spending spree in Washington that threatens our children’s future.

• Establish a Hard Cap on New Discretionary Spending: We must put common-sense limits on the growth of government and stop the endless increases. Only in Washington is there an expectation that whatever your budget was last year, it will be more this year and even more the next. We will set strict budget caps to limit federal spending on an annual basis. Budget caps were used in the 1990s, when a Republican Congress was able to bring the budget into balance and eventual surplus. By cutting discretionary spending from current levels and imposing a hard cap on future growth, we will save taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars.

• Cut Congress’ Budget: This year, Congress increased its own budget by 5.8 percent at a time when families and small businesses across the country are cutting back. We will make Congress do more with less by significantly reducing its budget.

• Hold Weekly Votes on Spending Cuts: Earlier this year, House Republicans launched the YouCut initiative to combat the permissive culture of runaway spending in Congress. Over the course of nine weeks, YouCut produced proposals to save taxpayers more than $120 billion. We will continue to hold weekly votes on spending cuts.

• End TARP Once And For All: Americans are rightly outraged at the bailouts of businesses and entities that force responsible taxpayers to subsidize irresponsible behavior. We will cancel the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), a move that would save taxpayers roughly $16 billion.

• End Government Control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Since taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage companies that triggered the financial meltdown by giving too many high risk loans to people who couldn’t afford them, taxpayers were billed more than $145 billion to save the two companies. We will reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by ending their government takeover, shrinking their portfolios, and establishing minimum capital standards. This will save taxpayers as much as $30 billion.

• Impose a Net Federal Hiring Freeze of Non-Security Employees: Small businesses and entrepreneurs are the engine of our economy and should not be crowded out by unchecked government growth. We will impose a net hiring freeze on non-security federal employees and ensure that the public sector no longer grows at the expense of the private sector.

• Root Out Government Waste and Duplication: Once created, federal programs almost never go away, even if the problem they were created to address is no longer relevant. More than 20 states have addressed this problem by requiring that programs end – or “sunset” – by a date certain. We will adopt this requirement at the federal level to force Congress to determine if a program is worthy of continued taxpayer support.

• Reform the Budget Process to Focus on Long-Term Challenges: We will make the decisions that are necessary to protect our entitlement programs for today’s seniors and future generations. That means requiring a full accounting of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, setting benchmarks for these programs and reviewing them regularly, and preventing the expansion of unfunded liabilities.

Again, this was all promised before in the past; and was never done. In fact, spending increased under the previous President.

My favorite so far…:

There is literally no aspect of our economy or our society that the federal government doesn’t tax, regulate or subsidize, and often it does all three at the same time. The most recent edition of the Catalogue of Federal Domestic Assistance listed 2,050 different assistance programs available to states, local governments, for-profit and non-profit organizations, groups, and individuals. Taxpayers are literally funding programs from cradle to grave…

Yes, let’s defund programs for the actual needy, and the Handicapped — like my aunt. Let’s allow them starve. What idiots. 🙄

Here’s the REAL knee slapper!

• Read The Bill: We will ensure that bills are debated and discussed in the public square by publishing the text online for at least three days before coming up for a vote in the House of Representatives. No more hiding legislative language from the minority party, opponents, and the public. Legislation should be understood by all interested parties before it is voted on.

• Adhere To The Constitution: For too long, Congress has ignored the proper limits imposed by the Constitution on the federal government. Further, it has too often drafted unclear and muddled laws, leaving to an unelected judiciary the power to interpret what the law means and by what authority the law stands. This lack of respect for the clear Constitutional limits and authorities has allowed Congress to create ineffective and costly programs that add to the massive deficit year after year. We will require each bill moving through Congress to include a clause citing the specific constitutional authority upon which the bill is justified.

• Make It Easier to Cut Spending: By forbidding amendments on spending bills, Democrats have denied lawmakers the opportunity to tighten Washington’s belt and slash wasteful and duplicative programs. Structure dictates behavior, so we will let any lawmaker — Democrat or Republican — offer amendments to reduce spending.

• Advance Legislative Issues One at a Time: We will end the practice of packaging unpopular bills with “must-pass” legislation to circumvent the will of the American people. Instead, we will advance major legislation one issue at a time.

However, they wish to do this too:

* Pass Clean Troop Funding Bills: When asked to provide our troops with the resources they need, we will do so without delay. That means no more troop funding bills held up by unrelated policy changes, or extraneous domestic spending and pork-barrel projects.

• Keep Terrorists Out of America: We will prevent the government from importing terrorists onto American soil. We will hold President Obama and his administration responsible for any Guantanamo Bay detainees they release who return to fight against our troops or who have become involved in any terrorist plots or activities.

• Demand an Overarching Detention Policy: Foreign terrorists do not have the same rights as American citizens, nor do they have more rights than U.S. military personnel. We will work to ensure foreign terrorists, such as the 9/11 conspirators, are tried in military, not civilian, court. We will oppose all efforts to force our military, intelligence, and law enforcement personnel operating overseas to extend “Miranda Rights” to foreign terrorists.

• Fully Fund Missile Defense: There is real concern that while the threat from Iranian intercontinental ballistic missiles could materialize as early as 2015, the government’s missile defense policy is not projected to cover the U.S. homeland until 2020. We will work to ensure critical funding is restored to protect the U.S. homeland and our allies from missile threats from rogue states such as Iran and North Korea.

• Require Tough Enforcement of Sanctions Against Iran: The Iranian regime is a state-sponsor of terrorism, has actively worked to harm our deployed troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, and violates the rights and will of its own people. It has declared its determination to acquire a nuclear capability, which threatens its neighbors and the security of the United States. We will work to ensure the government aggressively and effectively implements the sanctions tools Congress has provided.

• Establish Operational Control of the Border: We must take action to secure our borders, and that action starts with enforcing our laws. We will ensure that the Border Patrol has the tools and authorities to establish operational control at the border and prohibit the Secretaries of the Interior and Agriculture from interfering with Border Patrol enforcement activities on federal lands.

• Work with State and Local Officials to Enforce Our Immigration Laws: The problem of illegal immigration and Mexican drug cartels engaged in an increasingly violent conflict means we need all hands on deck to address this challenge. We will reaffirm the authority of state and local law enforcement to assist in the enforcement of all federal immigration laws.

• Strengthen Visa Security: To stop terrorists like Omar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Christmas Day bomber, we will require the Department of Homeland Security to review all visa applications at high-risk consular posts and prevent aliens from attempting to avoid deportation after having their visas revoked.

As for immigration; how about we try this novel idea? END ALL IMMIGRATION FOR AT LEAST 10 YEARS! Then, using the Government’s already vast resources, we round up, and DEPORT ALL Illegal immigrants in this damn country and BAR THEM from returned to the United States, FOREVER!

Yes, we want to stick to the constitution; but we also want to keep funding the Military industrial complex! This one was really one that makes me ill:

Require Tough Enforcement of Sanctions Against Iran: The Iranian regime is a state-sponsor of terrorism, has actively worked to harm our deployed troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, and violates the rights and will of its own people. It has declared its determination to acquire a nuclear capability, which threatens its neighbors and the security of the United States. We will work to ensure the government aggressively and effectively implements the sanctions tools Congress has provided.

Oh yes, let’s antagonize the hell out of Iran, until they strike one of our interests overseas; like Iraq and we end up having to go into that Country or some other one, with our interests in it. Which would lead to more War…….again!

Here is a novel idea. How about ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan now? Because Iraq is done; let them people deal with their own Country. Afghanistan is basically lost. The Russians tried rebuilding that god-forsaken wilderness and failed. Why do we think that we can do it any better? Al-Qaeda is basically in Pakistan and so damned well protected; that we will never get them, unless we keep hitting civilian targets. Which only inspires more terrorists. Why not just use CIA Drones and bring out troops home? That or just admit that the United States purposefully let down it’s guard; and end the lie, in the first damned place!  That way, we can usually save some money for defending America from Terrorism here; seeing that we have created this situation of possible blow back from those wanting to hurt America, because of our stupid invasion of Iraq, which had zero to do with 9/11. How is that for a novel idea?

However, no, we would rather continue with the same old Neo-Conservative, Israel-appeasing, polices that caused 9/11 in the first damned place. In the process, we want to bankrupt the Country, by continuing to fund crap like that. Plus, we continue to fund other Countries, like Israel and their healthcare plan, which includes a public option; which America does not even have. Until this stops. America will continue to be in debt for a long time to come.

For what it is worth, I am not the only person that thinks this is crap. Even the folks at RedState hate it.

Memeorandum thread is here.

Video: When you have lost the Home Depot Crowd, you have lost America

A nice three in a row from the founder of …..Home Depot.

Quite bluntly — if you have lost this man and the people that frequents his stores; you are toast.

The Videos: (H/T to HotAir.com)

I can tell you right now; Obama is not getting elected in 2012; it is over for the “Hope and Change” era. Over quicker than it started.

Now, I await two things; one, I await for some identity politics ogre, to start carping about how this man is just some angry white racist bigot. Second, I await some liberal to say that this guy is just some angry rich white businessman. Well, let me be the first to tell you all something here. I happen to know a little about the crowd, who hangs around Hope Depot.

Contrary to what some might actually believe. The good majority of the people who buy products at Home Dept are the people; that are commonly known as the backbone of America in this globalist age —- Small Business owners; and the Obama Administration, with the sun-setting of the Bush tax cuts — is basically targeting that group of people. Granted, not all business owners make that kind of money. However there are those that do, and they usually have employees and when taxes increase on those people, sometimes, especially with the smaller businesses; employees have to be laid off, because the “overhead” is just too much of burden on those business people. This should be just common sense, but when you are dealing with socialist left, common sense tends to run in short supply. When you let someone go like that, that causes the said person to not be able to spend money to contribute to the economy; which hurts the service industry, and so on. Not to mention the fact that that person will have problems paying his bills.  It is a vicious cycle and it gets worse as the cycle progresses.

You see, that is one thing that I have been trying to make clear here; and I guess I will just have to say it — most likely again. I am sure I have written here in the past. Anyhow, I do not write on this blog to defend the multi-billion dollar companies. They do not need my help; they have their P.R. companies and such. I write for the small business owner and the working man, who decides to go into business for himself; painting walls, building kitchens or whatever sort of trade that he desires to do; like driving a truck or whatever. Those people should be helped, not targeted for taxes and other such stupidity that the socialist left tries to cook up. Like it or not, my friends — but the small business owner and their businesses are the backbone of America. Yes, sure, General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler have their place, as do every other big business. However, it is the small business owner, the entrepreneur that embodies the true Spirit of America.  That is who I defend and will continue to here on this blog.

The blog is, and will always be — the Blog of the working man. Not the rich man — but those who work for themselves.

A song in tribute to whom I write for:

Stock and Gold Advice: Gold forms Overbought Rising Wedge at Resistance

Please note, this is a sponsored posting…

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(via The Gold and Oil Guy)

Sunday Sept 12
Precious metals soar as investors flock to gold and silver. But are they looking deep enough to truly understand the current trends at hand?

When reviewing the metals sector I like to look at it from different angles to get a solid understanding of the patterns and trend forming. I follow multiple time frames along with monitoring the gold mining stocks. Gold stocks tend to lead the price of gold bullion and when its out performing the price of gold substantially by 10% or more you should be expecting a pause or pullback in both gold stocks and gold bullion prices temporarily.

Below are a few charts showing the long and short term trends for gold.

Gold Bullion Price – Weekly Trend Chart

Gold continues to be in a strong up trend. The occasional test of support at the major moving averages can provide great long term points for adding to a position. The 50 period average is one which is tested frequently.

Looking at the weekly chart does give me a red flag for the intermediate price of gold. While the trend is clearly up I can’t help but notice the rising wedge which is a bearish pattern. During an uptrend we want to see bull flags and pennants, not a grind higher forming a narrowing range. This grind higher could unfold much similar to the price action of 2005 and 2007 instead of a correction but I am leaning more towards a sharp correction because more people are bullish on gold now then they were during the June top.

For those looking at gold as a long term investment/currency can be patient and wait for a pullback to a major moving average before adding to your position then you would lower your overall risk for this position. You will understand after reviewing the following charts.

GLD – Gold Bullion ETF – Daily Chart

(This fund moves identical to spot gold price so even though I am showing you GLD fund, the spot gold chart is doing the exact same thing.) As you can see below the price of gold is trading at resistance and becoming choppy. Buying gold at resistance does not make much sense to me. There is a very good chance gold will move lower in the coming weeks providing a better price for long term investors to add to their positions. For example, if you waited for the weekly chart to pullback to the 50 period moving average that would be like buying this GLD fund at $113, which is an 8% discount.

Gold continues to hold up within its channel but this week we could see fireworks if the price breaks below the blue support channels.

Gold:Gold Stocks Comparison – Daily Chart

This chart shows the performance of gold vs gold stocks from the Feb 2010 lows. The blue line is the performance of gold stocks while the red line shows gold’s performance. It’s obvious that when everyone is bullish on gold they buy the highly leverages gold investments in order to take full advantage of the upcoming move. This is much like reading the put/call ratio for trading the SP500 and it measures the bullishness of the precious metals sector.

When gold equities are strongly out performing gold bullion you should be thinking about raising your stops, taking partial profits and or hedging your long term position until the sector stabilizes is not trading at a premium.

Precious Metals Sector Trading Conclusion:

In short, Gold is in a strong up trend and will remain in one for a long time. Commodities have higher percentage of going parabolic. That means there’s a small chance that gold continues to move up quicker and quicker surging hundreds of dollars in a very short period of time. That being said, it’s not very likely, and from a technical point of view those buying gold now are paying a premium in my opinion.

Being a patient trader is not easy, but waiting for low risk entry points is very rewarding on many different levels when done correctly.

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For questions or to get great stock, oil or gold advice like this, please head on over to the gold and oil guy’s website.

Video: Is this is the future of America in 5 or 10 years?

(H/T to Richard Spencer of Alternative Right)

I think it’s time we got real; before we lose everything.

Stock and Precious Metals Advice: Precious Metals Equity Index Form a Triple Top, What’s Next?

Please note: This is a sponsored posting.

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Via Chris Vermeulen AKA The Gold and Oil Guy:

Wed Sept 8th, 2010
I am going to step out on a limb in this report and cover what I think to be an intermediate top in the precious metals sector. Everyone I speak with and from the hundreds of emails I get I would say the vast majority are bullish on gold and silver. That being said, I feel we are 3-8 days away from a pop and drop in the price of gold.

Below are my explanation and charts of what I think is unfolding.

HUI – Gold Bugs Index

This chart tracks a basket of gold companies and can be used as a leading indicator for gold bullion at times. This index tends to lead the price of gold before rallies and also during declines. I have seen this lead by a few hours and even up to 7 days. I find it out perform when gold is about to rally, and under perform when gold is topping or about to start another move down.

It looks as though we are forming a triple top which also happens to be at a previous 2009 resistance level. Each time this level has been reached sellers take control and send the market sharply lower. There have been several long upper wicks formed in the past few sessions telling me that buyers are pushing the price up, but sellers hit the sell button pulling the market right back down. If this triple tops plays out, I would expect a multi month correction to take place.

UUP – US Dollar ETF

The US Dollar looks to have found support at the March/April lows and has put in a very solid rally. If the chart pattern is correct then it looks as though the dollar will breakout to the upside and run to $24.75 area. The relationship between the dollar and the precious metals sector is generally inverse, meaning if the dollar rallies both gold and stocks should fall.

GLD – Gold Bullion ETF

The chart of gold has identical patterns no matter if it’s this ETF or spot gold price. So this analysis goes for both ETF and gold bullion prices. Anyways, the past two times gold rallied for this length of time without any sizable pauses we saw the price of gold drop $70 per ounce, and $140 per ounce which is equivalent to $7-$10 drop on this GLD fund which is a decent size move.

The chart is screaming of a nasty correction to occur any day now. With gold testing the June highs I feel its only days away. What I am looking for is a pierce of the June high. That will suck in the rest of the bulls as they jump on the band, and cause all the shorts to cover their positions. This causes a pop, and once buying starts to dry up, the big money will start to sell down the price to trigger the stops and start a multi day waterfall sell off.

With the declining volume as the price grinds its way higher it tells me fewer individuals want to buy in at these high prices. Once the price starts to slide it will cause the stops to triggered. And because there have not been any substantial pullbacks along the way, there is a larger number of stops sitting in the market waiting to get hit.

Mid-Week Precious Metals Trading Report:

In short, I feel precious metals are on the verge of a sharp correction which may only last a few days, but the drop will be substantial. I still think we could see a few more up days or sideways session before this happens as the June high for gold bullion should be penetrated before the market truly reverses back down.

Anyone long gold, silver or PM stocks should be thinking of tightening their stops and for the gold bugs to mentally prepare them selves for a correction.

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For more great Stocks and Precious Metals Advice. Please click here and sign up for this great service.

The Obligatory Obama will not extend Bush Tax Cuts Posting

Well, duh, he is a liberal and a Democrat. He does believe in class warfare. Remember you Republicans and Libertarians that voted for him. (You know who you are…)

Via the NYT:

WASHINGTON — President Obama on Wednesday will make clear that he opposes any compromise that would extend the Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthy beyond this year, officials said, adding a populist twist to an election-season economic package that is otherwise designed to entice support from big businesses and their Republican allies.

Mr. Obama’s opposition to allowing the high-end tax cuts to remain in place for even another year or two would be the signal many Congressional Democrats have been awaiting as they prepare for a showdown with Republicans on the issue and ends speculation that the White House might be open to an extension. Democrats say only the president can rally wavering lawmakers who, amid the party’s weakened poll numbers, feel increasingly vulnerable to Republican attacks if they let the top rates lapse at the end of this year as scheduled.

It is not clear that Mr. Obama can prevail given his own diminished popularity, the tepid economic recovery and the divisions within his party. But by proposing to extend the rates for the 98 percent of households with income below $250,000 for couples and $200,000 for individuals — and insisting that federal income tax rates in 2011 go back to their pre-2001 levels for income above those cutoffs — he intends to cast the issue as a choice between supporting the middle class or giving breaks to the wealthy.

In a speech in Cleveland on Wednesday, Mr. Obama will also make a case for the package of roughly $180 billion in expanded business tax cuts and infrastructure spending disclosed by the White House in bits and pieces over the past few days. He would offset the cost by closing other tax breaks for multinational corporations, oil and gas companies and others.

While the speech will be centrist in its policy prescriptions other than the Bush tax cuts, Mr. Obama’s language will be partisan as he seeks to sharpen the contrasts between Republicans’ record and efforts by Democrats to create more jobs, aides said.

As much as I would like to jump up, holler and raise a fuss about this; I cannot. We all knew that this was coming. This should be a lesson to the Republican Party. That is, do not run weak or moderate Conservatives during elections. Because when you do; Conservatives, and I mean hardcore Conservatives will not vote — and this is what you get. I know that I, personally, will not be affected by this; neither will my family.

However, I am sure that there will be some families affected by this —  not to mention a myriad of business owners out there. This will, I am sure, cause a downtown in hiring by businesses; which will add to the huge downturn in the economy. It is all a domino effect, starts at the top and goes to the bottom.

Another thing to think about; we do have to eventually pay for these two wars. I believe that those who profited off of both of these wars ought to be targeted for taxing. I believe that a special “War Tax”, ought to be appended to anyone making over $500.000 or more a year. I would target multinational companies, like oil companies and so forth. Especially those in Iraq. Perhaps next time, the warmongering class will not be so eager to start a war next time. This taxing would reinforce the idea that those wanting said war, should they actually have to pay for it. Foreign Policy has a price tag; and those who want follow Woodrow Wilson’s steps, should be required to pay that price tag.

Memorandum Thread.