Month: January 2009

This is quite the interesting read.

Via the NYT:

President Bush deflected a secret request by Israel last year for specialized bunker-busting bombs it wanted for an attack on Iran’s main nuclear complex and told the Israelis that he had authorized new covert action intended to sabotage Iran’s suspected effort to develop nuclear weapons, according to senior American and foreign officials.

White House officials never conclusively determined whether Israel had decided to go ahead with the strike before the United States protested, or whether Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel was trying to goad the White House into more decisive action before Mr. Bush left office. But the Bush administration was particularly alarmed by an Israeli request to fly over Iraq to reach Iran’s major nuclear complex at Natanz, where the country’s only known uranium enrichment plant is located.

The White House denied that request outright, American officials said, and the Israelis backed off their plans, at least temporarily. But the tense exchanges also prompted the White House to step up intelligence-sharing with Israel and brief Israeli officials on new American efforts to subtly sabotage Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, a major covert program that Mr. Bush is about to hand off to President-elect Barack Obama.

This account of the expanded American covert program and the Bush administration’s efforts to dissuade Israel from an aerial attack on Iran emerged in interviews over the past 15 months with current and former American officials, outside experts, international nuclear inspectors and European and Israeli officials. None would speak on the record because of the great secrecy surrounding the intelligence developed on Iran.

For some reason or another, I feel like the New York Times has just sold the United States right to secrecy up the river by revealing this. But on the other hand, I can see why Bush would do something like this. Bush was already mired in the war in Iraq. He knew our presence in Iraq was already causing tension in the middle east and knew also that sending these sort of bombs over to Israel to be used in Iran would just add to that tension. I give Bush a point here, he may have just done the right thing, but just telling Israel “no go” on these type of weapons. As it could have caused more problems that it might have fixed.

The interviews also indicate that Mr. Bush was convinced by top administration officials, led by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, that any overt attack on Iran would probably prove ineffective, lead to the expulsion of international inspectors and drive Iran’s nuclear effort further out of view. Mr. Bush and his aides also discussed the possibility that an airstrike could ignite a broad Middle East war in which America’s 140,000 troops in Iraq would inevitably become involved.

Instead, Mr. Bush embraced more intensive covert operations actions aimed at Iran, the interviews show, having concluded that the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies were failing to slow the uranium enrichment efforts. Those covert operations, and the question of whether Israel will settle for something less than a conventional attack on Iran, pose immediate and wrenching decisions for Mr. Obama.

The covert American program, started in early 2008, includes renewed American efforts to penetrate Iran’s nuclear supply chain abroad, along with new efforts, some of them experimental, to undermine electrical systems, computer systems and other networks on which Iran relies. It is aimed at delaying the day that Iran can produce the weapons-grade fuel and designs it needs to produce a workable nuclear weapon.

Knowledge of the program has been closely held, yet inside the Bush administration some officials are skeptical about its chances of success, arguing that past efforts to undermine Iran’s nuclear program have been detected by the Iranians and have only delayed, not derailed, their drive to unlock the secrets of uranium enrichment.

[…]

Early in his presidency, Mr. Obama must decide whether the covert actions begun by Mr. Bush are worth the risks of disrupting what he has pledged will be a more active diplomatic effort to engage with Iran.

Either course could carry risks for Mr. Obama. An inherited intelligence or military mission that went wrong could backfire, as happened to President Kennedy with the Bay of Pigs operation in Cuba. But a decision to pull back on operations aimed at Iran could leave Mr. Obama vulnerable to charges that he is allowing Iran to speed ahead toward a nuclear capacity, one that could change the contours of power in the Middle East.

Which proves what I have said time and again, our Government is not stupid, we know what we can get away with and what we cannot. Bush was not going to send our troops into a bloodbath. So, I give Bush credit here, he averted a major problem. However, I do see that Obama is going to have his work cut out for him in the White House. Iran is not going to go away quietly. If anything, with the gas market collapsing, Iran might just get a bit worse during Obama tenure. I just hope that, unlike Kennedy; Obama makes the right call on this issues, because if he does not, The United States could have some serious problems on its hands.

I strongly encourage you to go over to the NYT and read the rest of that report. It is quite the interesting read. Some would take away from it, that Bush was showing deference to the Arabs, but I think that it is much more than just that; in the sense that Bush knew that he would be getting in over his head. This is why he refused the Israelis permission to do flyovers and target Iranian targets.

Others: Associated Press, The Muqata, Israel Matzav, The Moderate Voice, RBO, Power Line, Hot Air, Israpundit, The Raw Story, Jihad Watch, Lawyers, Guns and Money, Weekly Standard, Balloon Juice and THE ASTUTE BLOGGERS