Interesting Book Review: The Neoconservative Persuasion: Selected Essays, 1942-2009

This is pretty interesting….

Audio:

[podcast]http://graphics8.nytimes.com/podcasts/2011/01/28/28bookreview.mp3[/podcast]

The Story via the NYT:

Irving Kristol, who died in 2009, is sometimes called the “godfather” or even “father” of neoconservatism, and the patriarchal honorific, like a well-worn hat, sits comfortably atop “The Neoconservative Persuasion: Selected Essays, 1942-2009.” The book is strictly a family enterprise. It has been lovingly edited by Kristol’s widow, the historian Gertrude Himmelfarb, and carries a prefatory funeral eulogy by their sorrowful son, the Republican journalist William Kristol. Even the selection of essays reflects a uniquely familial degree of intimacy.

Himmelfarb recounts in her introduction that while “rummaging among old files” after her husband’s death, she discovered tattered copies of a short-lived and wholly forgotten little magazine called Enquiry: A Journal of Independent Radical Thought. Her husband and some of his young friends founded the magazine in 1942, the year of her marriage, and they kept it afloat for eight issues, until the young friends and Kristol himself disappeared into the Army. Himmelfarb has reproduced the cover of Vol. 1, No. 1 — austere, elegant, partly sans-serif in the 1940s style, 10 cents a copy — and the sight of the magazine does conjure an era.

(…)

There is sometimes a charm in Kristol’s prose, once he had gotten past his pompous Lionel Trilling period — a wry, man-of-the-people modesty, nicely joined with a genuine talent for summarizing ideas. Then again, he tried to capitalize on his Everyman sonority by claiming to speak on behalf of “the majority of Americans” or even “the overwhelming majority of Americans,” and sometimes “the American people” altogether, which, to my mind, undercuts the charm. In the course of an otherwise intelligent essay about Communism and McCarthyism as long ago as 1952, he wrote: “For there is one thing that the American people know about Senator McCarthy; he, like them, is unequivocally anti-­Communist. About the spokesmen for American liberalism, they feel they know no such thing.”

The remark is one of Kristol’s most famous, if only because his enemies have been quoting it back at him for almost 60 years. The habit of invoking the American people served him well, even so. Some of the more talented leaders of the Republican Party eventually cocked an ear in his direction, in search of oratorical and political and programmatic possibilities. And the alliance was formed.

Himmelfarb has thoughtfully filled “The Neoconservative Persuasion” with pieces that, with one exception, have not appeared in previous collections. The subtitle, “Selected Essays,” might lead readers to suppose that here must surely be Kristol’s Greatest Hits — the best and most popular of his essays. But Kristol himself gathered together his Greatest Hits in an anthology in 1995 called “Neoconservatism: The Autobiography of an Idea.”

The new book ought to be regarded, instead, as a Volume 2. It is faithful to his ideas and their evolution. And it offers an opportunity to evaluate his abilities as an essayist — his achievements as a thinker and writer within the little world known as the “New York intellectuals.” The achievements do not seem to me large. Kristol was not a Trilling, a Hook, a Howe or a Bell. For that matter, he never produced anything as substantial as his wife’s scholarly meditations on English history.

But it is true that unlike any of those other talented people, Kristol, with his tirades and simplicities, helped found a political movement. And under the name of “neoconservatism,” his movement invigorated the party of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush and, for better and for worse, wreaked enormous changes on America and the world.

As many of you know. I do have personal issues with the Neo-Conservative as a whole. However, I believe it to be fair to examine the history of the people around it. The book sounds like it might be an interesting read.

You can get it here:

There are those that might not like that I even blogged about this; to them I say this. Perhaps if you put some money into my Tip Jar, maybe I would not have to resort to blogging about subjects that I utterly detest. Further more, the way I see it, when those people start donating to this blog; then they can bitch at me about what I write about. Until then, quite frankly, they can just fuck off. (and I mean that in the most Christian way possible… 😛 😉 😀 )

Not only that, I do try; even I disagree with that person — to get everyone a fair shake. I might disagree with them on some things, but there has to be something that I agree upon. If only the Neo-Cons felt the same way about us that disagree with them. Most of them are almost Nazi like in their fascism against dissenters. The Bush era proved that one. 🙄

Trading Advice: What Most People Don’t Realize About The Fed’s Superpowers

Bob Prechter’s Conquer The Crash reveals whether the Fed really can rescue the US economy
January 27, 2011

By Elliott Wave International

Since its creation in 1913, the primary intended role of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has been that of protector. In theory, the central bank was bestowed with the power to shape monetary policy in a way that would keep both booms and busts in check. The two main tools at its disposal — interest rates and money creation — would provide a “ceiling of normalcy” above expansions AND a “net of safety” below contractions.

To this day, the financial mainstream holds great faith in the Fed’s ability to fulfill its save-the-day duties — as these recent news items make plain:

  • “Why Raising Fed Funds Rate Is Positive For Equities.” (Seeking Alpha)
  • “Fed’s Moves Lift All Asset Classes.” (Associated Press)
  • “US Stocks Erasing Losses: The aggressive moves of the Fed have been an important driver for the stabilization of stock prices.” (Bloomberg)

But of all the variables the Fed creators took into account, there’s one glaring factor they neglected to consider: Namely, it cannot force consumers to spend, creditors to lend, or businesses to borrow. The events of 2007-2009 “credit crunch” and the subsequent “Great Recession” made that obvious. Remember how the government was upset at banks for sitting on the bailout funds instead of lending them out to consumers? And consumers weren’t exactly lining up on the street to get a loan, either.

The Fed’s inability to change social mood is the central theme in Chapter 13 of EWI President Bob Prechter’s NY Times business bestseller book Conquer the Crash. There, Bob describes the Fed’s strategy of lowering the federal funds rate to stimulate spending to be as effective as “pushing on a string.” Writes Bob:

“The primary basis for today’s belief in perpetual prosperity and inflation with an occasional recession is what I call the ‘Potent Directors Fallacy.’ It is nearly impossible to find a treatise on macroeconomics today that does not assert or assume that the Federal Reserve Board has learned to control both our money and our economy. Many believe that it also possesses the immense power to manipulate the stock market. The very idea that it can do these things is false.”

And so begins one of the most groundbreaking studies into the very real INABILITY of the Fed to fell the great bears of economic declines, or to feed the great bulls of economic vigor.

The best part is, you can read Chapter 13 of Conquer the Crash in its entirety FREE via a Club EWI resource “You Can Survive And Prosper In A Deflationary Depression.” The free report also includes SEVEN other chapters of Conquer the Crash that shed equal light on some of the most misleading notions of mainstream economic wisdom.

Don’t stay in the dark. Read all 8 chapters today by joining the rapidly expanding free Club EWI community today. Here’s what you’ll learn:

  • Chapter 10: Money, Credit and the Federal Reserve Banking System
  • Chapter 13: Can the Fed Stop Deflation?
  • Chapter 23: What To Do With Your Pension Plan
  • Chapter 28: How to Identify a Safe Haven
  • Chapter 29: Calling in Loans and Paying off Debt
  • Chapter 30: What You Should Do If You Run a Business
  • Chapter 32: Should You Rely on Government to Protect You?
  • Chapter 33: A Short List of Imperative “Do’s” and Crucial “Don’ts”

Keep reading this free report now — all you need to do is create a free Club EWI profile.

Cartoon of the Day

Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood?

The huge oversized 243-page book Diversity Lane/ A Liberal Family Saga now available at the Diversity Lane website! Endorsed by FrontPage, Townhall, Brent Bozell, American Thinker and tons of others– THE most enjoyable conservative book of the year, guaranteed.
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Neo-Conservatives are hypocritical about free speech

I saw this over at HotAir.com this morning and I nearly fell out of the chair……laughing:

The civility narrative that grew legs after the shooting in Arizona is really just a ruse to keep Republicans from calling Democrats what America knows they are – Socialists. After all, it’s that kind of ‘hateful rhetoric’ that gets people killed right? Yeah, right.

The Democrats lost power in the House after Americans got too big a taste of their left-wing socialist agenda over the last two years. Now that they’ve lost power they need to stem what could amount to even bigger losses in 2012. Since they can’t really legislate to cover their tracks, they need to prevent Republicans from continuing to remind Americans about their socialist agenda – and what better way to do that than to decide that America needs a dose of civility. Of course they cloak it in the ludicrous notion that it’s contributing to an atmosphere of hate that might set off a crazy person on another shooting spree. But to any able minded person that’s just nonsense.

(….)

Even Obama’s rhetorical move to the center also plays into this civility narrative. With the entire MSM and political world gushing over Obama’s new and improved centrist talk, it increases the chances that Republicans will feel more uncomfortable pointing out his socialist agenda, or even calling him a socialist, and it will serve to neuter Republicans and make them less effective.

The bottom line here is that Republicans simply need to stop mincing words and continue to remind Americans just how destructive these radicals are to this great country. If they do that, along with some great legislating, I assure you that Americans will respond in 2012 just as they did in 2010.

Yeah, let us talk about the neutering of free speech shall we? Some of you might remember, when I was attacked by some of  David Horowitz’s vultures for pointing out the fact that a good majority of the people that were raising a stink about the so-called 9/11 mosque….were Jewish. All because I dared to point out that making fat jokes about Megan McCain was rather farking lame. My real name was posted, a very unflattering picture of me was posted  and straight up lies were published about me, all by these Neo-Conservative vultures, who claim to be Conservative and also some of them Christian.

Further more, I also recall how I was attacked, my blog hacked and basically, I am considered a pariah among the Blogosphere — all because I dared to call Michelle Malkin on her yellow journalism and outright stupidity.  I mean, these people went out of their way to threaten and intimidate a blogger; whom I thought was a good friend of mine, who really turned out to be a spineless coward. All because I dared to call a spade….a spade…..

So, to the Neo-Conservative right I say this; please, do not sit and carp about the so-called “Neutering of Free Speech or the Neutering of Republicans” okay? Because you are just as bad about that, as the damned Democrats are, especially when it comes to Jews and when it comes to your crown princesses, like Michelle Malkin, who is one of the most yellow Journalists in the Business. Her politics might be decent, but her ethics are lousy and I called her on that. For this, I was made to be someone that I am not.

Again, I will state for the record; I am NOT, nor have I EVER BEEN, a Neo-Nazi, Anti-Semite or White Nationalist. I am someone however, that despises Identity Politics on the LEFT and the THE RIGHT. Further more, I am someone who despises yellow journalists; who distort facts and make up lies to the further their political agenda.

The Neo-Con right likes to gripe about the left doing it; to that I say, what about Michelle Malkin? What about Jim Hoft? What about Ed Morrissey, who straight lies about Unions and other such stuff that he disagrees with? Meanwhile his wife lives on Medicare Advantage. It is straight up damned hypocrisy, and I will call it every damned time I see it folks.

I think the Neo-Conservative right, which is really Democratic Party Lite —- needs to look in the mirror, and clean up their own backyard, because they accuse the left of the very same thing, that they do themselves. Is it Anti-Semite to point out that Jews are involved in anything? No, it is not. Anyone who says that, is a identity politics vulture who wants to stifle freedom of speech. Political stance and leanings means nothing. All of it is damned wrong. Period, End of Discussion.

I am shutting comments off of this posting, because I am not interested in hearing the Neo-Con vultures idiotic ramblings about how I am an Anti-Semite. 😡

Video: Who’s up for some Chris Christie Porn?

Our first flick comes from The coalition of the swilling: (H/T to HotAir.com’s resident Beta Male)

If that is not enough to wet your whistle, how an radio ad of Chris Christie trying to lure Illinois Businesses to….you guessed it, New Jersey: (Via Eyeblast)

I’ll tell you, this might just the guy for the Republican 2012 nomination. The office of the President of the United States is a heavy job. But, isn’t that right up Christie’s alley?

It is official: Mike Pence will not be running for President in 2012

Well, we can count this guy out:

U.S. Rep. Mike Pence shut the door today on a run for the presidency, but left wide open the likelihood that he’ll seek a different office: Governor of Indiana.

“In the choice between seeking national office and serving Indiana in some capacity, we choose Indiana,” Pence, R-Columbus, said of himself and wife Karen in a letter being sent to supporters. “We will not seek the Republican nomination for president in 2012.”

He said he would make a decision “later this year” about what his next political step is, but by not running for president it is considered a virtual certainty that he will run for the GOP nomination for governor. While he could, instead, run for a seventh term in Congress, that’s not considered likely given that Pence gave up the job that would have made him the fourth-highest ranking Republican in the House after the November elections, in order to focus on other political opportunities.

via Rep. Mike Pence closes door on White House run | The Indianapolis Star | IndyStar.com.

AllahPundit, as always, frets:

Needless to say, a big reason for the “Draft Pence” push in recent weeks was some social cons being uncomfortable with Palin or Huckabee as the nominee. Where do those people turn now?

To be quite honest, if all the social cons have to choose from is Huckabee and Palin; then that speaks to the sorry condition of the GOP in this day and age. I would say Mitt Romney, but the Evangelical Christians loathe him.  As a Fundamentalist Baptist, I can tell you that I am not too big on the idea of a Mormon being in the White House at all.  What I really believe personally is that the Republican Party needs to focus on fiscal issues and leave the social cons out of the mix in 2012.  Because honestly, that crowd is so darned fickle anyways, not to mention the rank hypocrisy that comes from those ranks.  I mean, just look at Palin, rode in on the white horse of social Conservatism and a few weeks later, her daughter comes up pregnant.

The simple solution is Tim Pawlenty. He is a fiscal Conservative, he is not a extremist and his family is not a reality show. I personally believe he would be a good choice for the G.O.P. in 2012. Here is hoping that Tim runs in 2012, because for once, I would like to vote for a Republican, that actually acts like one and not some made beltway boy or some right wing extremist or a talk show reality star. I want a real CEO type, that will make decisions to help small business and people like me find jobs again.

We need to put America back to work. We cannot do that with a shrieking harpy glamor model who’s got a reality show; that somehow believes that she is entitled to be President, because of her sex organs —- nor can we do that with a Democrat with a Bible who is prone to extremism.

Challenger: It has been 25 years

It is truly unbelievable. It has been 25 years ago, when these images were splashed across our TV screens:

A President comforts a grieving Nation:

The crew of the space shuttle Challenger honoured us by the manner in which they lived their lives. We will never forget them, nor the last time we saw them, this morning, as they prepared for the journey and waved goodbye and ‘slipped the surly bonds of earth’ to ‘touch the face of God.’  —- Ronald Reagan

This is a great one here, I ask that you go and read the entire thing….:

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — For many, no single word evokes as much pain.

Challenger.

A quarter-century later, images of the exploding space shuttle still signify all that can go wrong with technology and the sharpest minds. The accident on Jan. 28, 1986 — a scant 73 seconds into flight, nine miles above the Atlantic for all to see — remains NASA’s most visible failure.

It was the world’s first high-tech catastrophe to unfold on live TV. Adding to the anguish was the young audience: School children everywhere tuned in that morning to watch the launch of the first schoolteacher and ordinary citizen bound for space, Christa McAuliffe.

She never made it.

McAuliffe and six others on board perished as the cameras rolled, victims of stiff O-ring seals and feeble bureaucratic decisions.

(—-)

“I wonder if it’s because the image is so ingrained in our brains, that it seems like yesterday,” Rodgers said.

Almost as many years have passed since the accident, as the span of her 26-year marriage to Dick Scobee.

“Isn’t it interesting about the number 25?” she asked softly. “Challenger was the 25th mission. This is 25 years.”

A full generation has come and gone.

Remember the families of this awful tragedy today in your prayers, as this week will be pure hell for them.

Something to watch, a documentary on this awful event….:

Good News: GM Withdrawing Loan apps from Government

This is good news:

WASHINGTON (AP) — General Motors says it is withdrawing its application for $14.4 billion in federal government loans it had sought to help modernize plants to build fuel-efficient cars.

GM says it doesn’t need the loans now, because the company’s cash position has improved and it can pay for the improvements. GM applied for the loans in 2008 to modernize plants to build fuel-efficient vehicles.

The $25 billion low-interest loan program is administered by the Energy Department. It was created in a 2007 energy law to help car companies retool older factories to build green cars — GM withdrawing government loan application | The Daily Caller

But you should not expect to see this reported on any of the Conservative websites… Because it messes with that whole narrative thing. You know, the whole “American car companies suck and are controlled by the unions” talking point?

Anyways, it is good news; glad to see that we Americans are winning again. 😀

Quote of the Day

I actually grew up in part as a Calvinist fundamentalist myself during the 1970s. My family were adherents of old-style orthodox Calvinism of the kind represented by theologians like J. Gresham Machen and Cornelius Van Til, and for a time we were involved with a church associated with the theocratic “Christian reconstructionist” movement of R.J. Rushdoony and Gary North. All of my education up through and including my sophomore year of high school was done at a fundamentalist academy that adhered to dispensational Christian Zionism (think of Bob Jones University and you will get an idea what the atmosphere there was like). During the late 1980s and early 1990s I was a left-wing Chomskyite and it was during this time that I first began to personally encounter PC. Observing the psychology of PC and its behavioral manifestations up close and in an unadulterated form gave me a sense of déjà vu: “Where I have seen this kind of thing before?” Having long since abandoned my previous Christianity by that time, I came to realize that PC essentially amounts to Christian fundamentalism without a Christ (perhaps this explains the Left’s habit of elevating perceived progressive saints such as Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. to the status of Christ-like semi-divine figures).

Whatever the true historical trajectory of PC may be, its obscurantist and totalitarian nature is obvious enough. It is ironic that eccentric religious subcultures such as the ones I came from are demonized by the anointed as dangerous theocratic fascists about to carry out an Taliban-like coup any minute now (a view that wildly exaggerates the influence and degree of extremism of such subcultures), while a form of obscurantist totalitarianism that has actually has the support of elites, intellectuals, academics, journalists, and others of genuine influence continues to entrench itself in Western cultural and political institutions.

Ouch: Alvin Felzenberg says President Obama’s SOTU address sucked the big one

That ought to leave a mark!:

If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, what can be said of plagiarism? President Obama’s second State of the Union address contained enough recycled ideas and lines lifted from speeches of others to make historians wince. I suppose this is what one does when one not only has nothing new to say, but is required by custom and Constitution to come forth with a report of some kind by a certain time and day.

Had Obama or his writers been considerate enough to have informed listeners of where some of the president’s best lines and offered-up ideas originated, the speech might be remembered for its cutting and pasting of great and not-so-great moments of the past performance of others. After quoting Robert Kennedy early on, Obama tried to have his listeners believe that everything else he said that we might remember were his or his writers’ creations. Had the president submitted the text of his second State of the Union Address in the form of a college term paper, he would have been sent forthwith to the nearest academic dean. Once again, our public affairs are such that we have one standard for presidents and another for undergraduates. Now is as good a time as any to let Obama’s listeners in on what the late Paul Harvey would have termed “the rest of the story.”  — Obama’s State of the Union Was Tantamount to Plagiarism – Alvin Felzenberg (usnews.com)

Go read the rest of that. This guy is seriously unimpressed with the speech. Believe me, it is not a flattering review. Something tells me that 2012 is going to be a major challenge for President Obama.

Countdown to someone in the Democratic Party playing the race card in 5…..4….3…2…

Others: Blue Crab Boulevard and THE ASTUTE BLOGGERS

Living Proof the Liberals are classless assholes

A real humdinger of a story in this installment. But first, our official music:

Hit the play button to enjoy the music, while you read the story.

Here’s another real classless story from our asshole liberal folks on the left. Tonight’s installment was overseen at HotAir.com. As you all know Gabby Giffords was shot by a crazy gunman just a few weeks ago and already some Democrats are already wanting to toss her under the bus.

The Story comes via The Daily Caller’s Chris Moody:

Behind closed doors, California Democratic Rep. Loretta Sanchez has proposed removing Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords from the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) until she recovers from injuries sustained after being shot in the head on Jan. 8 in Tucson, The Daily Caller has learned.

The proposal sparked an outrage, according to those in the room — including from those in Sanchez’s own party.

“It’s not appropriate,” Texas Democratic Rep. Silvestre Reyes told The Daily Caller, adding that there was outrage among some members in the room when Sanchez made the suggestion. “It’s bad for morale during her recovery period.”

Reyes and Rep. Adam Smith of Washington put up most of the fight against Sanchez, and helped squash the idea.

“From a woman who memorialized her cat, you’d think she’d show a little more compassion for a woman shot in the face,” said one GOP aide, referring to Sanchez’s 2010 Christmas card that paid tribute to her late cat, Gretzky.

Sanchez told her Democratic colleagues on the committee that every vote would be crucial, and since there was little indication Giffords would return soon, they should seek a replacement. A spokesman for Sanchez defended her proposal and called the criticism “ludicrous.”

“Gabby has always been one of the most active members on the Armed Services Committee, and Rep. Sanchez wants to make sure HASC Democrats preserve her voice until the congresswoman has returned,” Sanchez’s Press Secretary Caroline Hogan told TheDC. “Rep. Sanchez simply inquired whether a proxy could represent the Congresswoman on the Committee at Rep. Giffords’ request. That way, Gabby’s legislative priorities and seniority would be preserved until her return. Any other interpretation of her question is ludicrous.”

Get shot in the head, by a crazy, deranged, leftist gunman — get tossed under the bus as useless by your own damned party.

Just more living proof that socialist liberals are classless assholes.

Other Blogs Covering this:

Video: The Reality Report #78: The Homeland becomes the Fatherland

Please note: The posting on this video does NOT constitute support for all of the views therein. It is posted for your education and information.

—–

Synopsis: In the 78th edition of the Reality Report, Gary Franchi draws the direct parallels America shares with Hitler’s Germany and provides the solution to avoiding their terrible fate. We take a look at Ron Paul’s Texas Straight Talk where he discusses what a new found interest in the Constitution could mean for America. CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff tells us why the Chinese modeled their currency after the U.S. dollar. We also hear from the former U.S. military analyst who is responsible for leaking the Pentagon Papers, Daniel Ellsberg. He explains the recent war on whistle-blowers. Chris Mathews latest hypocrisy is revealed and Angie breaks down the news. As always we take a dip into the mailbag, reveal the results from last weeks viewer poll and brand a new Enemy of the State.

The Video:

http://RTR.org | http://RealityReport.TV

RTR Group:
http://rtr.org/group/745

Facebook Page:
http://facebook.com/realityreport

Youtube channel
http://bit.ly/sub-2-rr

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Video: Ron Paul talks with John Stossel on the SOTU address

This comes via The Daily Paul:

Part 1:

Part 2:

Comments are Welcome!

My Thoughts on President Barack Obama’s Second State of the Union Address

Yes, I did watch the President’s second State of the Union address last night.  I wanted to sleep on it, before I actually typed a blog entry about it; and besides, I was tired last night and needed to go to bed.  Heck, they accuse me now of being crazy when I blog wide-awake; could you imagine me doing a blog entry half-asleep?  😮

Now about that speech — honestly folks, I thought it was very well done.  I thought the President spoke very well and even cracked a rather funny joke about the complexity of the Federal Government.  Now there were some things, that as a Conservative, I really had to wonder about.  First off, how in the heck is the President going to cut spending, and work on the Nation’s infrastructure?  It simply cannot be done.  The President is going to spend money updating our infrastructure or he is going to cut spending — you cannot do both; well, at least not very well.

The President made a huge emphasis on education, he also made a huge concession that America’s standing in the World has slipped to Nations like China.  I believe that was important.  However, I would have like it greatly, if the President had said, how we needed to cut down on, not increase, exports.  I would have liked it if the President would have, by executive order — ordered the repeal of the North America Free Trade Agreement, TAFTA and the rest of the free trade agreements.  I also would have liked it, if the President would have imposed extremely stiff tariffs on those importing goods into our Country.  I would have liked it, if the President would have, by executive order, imposed a strict and high tax on those who have companies here in the United States and manufactured products overseas and imported them here.  Now that would have impressed me.  However, the President, along with his Republican predecessor continues the agenda of globalism, which is killing the American job market.

The reason I say this, is this; if someone can pay a dollar to some person in China to build a product, as opposed to paying someone minimum wage here —- trust me, those businessperson are going to do it.  This is what needs to happen; we need to make it more costly for those business people to do that very thing.  That and only that is the way that we will bring manufacturing back to America.

One thing that the President did do that I felt was an honorable gesture; and that was recognizing the man that saved the lives of the miners in Chili.  Not only that, but using that an example of how American innovation can be used in times of crisis.  I felt that deserved much praise, although you will not see that, at all, on any blogs on the right and it is tragic — as it were the Conservative bloggers who raised that issue, and criticized Obama for not speaking favorably about the man in the first place.

Let me end this by say this.  Words and speeches are one thing.  Actions and results are another.  Like I said about Rick Snyder’s State of the State speech here in Michigan — it was a good speech, but it was very short on specifics.  I, like many other Americans, are looking for results.  Flowery speeches are nice and rhetoric is great.  However, none of those things creates jobs and puts food on the table.  When the results come in, than I will say more about this President and what he has done for the Country.  So far, all I have seen is flowery speeches and empty rhetoric from BOTH SIDES.  When the results come in, and the jobs start being plentiful again, then I will say yea or nay.  Until then, I remain skeptical — of BOTH SIDES!

Stock and Trading Advice: WARNING TO OPTIONS TRADERS LOOKING AT NETFLIX EARNINGS

One of the hardest things for me to remember is not to believe everything I see. I am a sucker for the latest “can’t lose” strategy supported by the experts. This morning I ran across a trade that looked too good to be true. I think it is, but I think it is instructive to walk through the potential hidden land mine. The event is the Wednesday afternoon release of NFLX earnings but there is a hidden trap for option traders using one commonly used earnings play structure.

The construction of the play is that of a “double calendar” spread. The underlying profit engine is an attempt to exploit the routinely seen spike in implied volatility (IV) of the options series most closely following earnings release. In this case, NFLX has weekly options which expire 48 hours after the scheduled announcement.

In order to understand the situation, let’s walk through the components step-by-step. First, is the routinely observed spike in IV seen as earnings release approaches present? As shown in the options pricing matrix below, the IV of the weekly options is substantially higher than the next series in time, the February monthlies:

Next, we need to get an idea of the magnitude of the price movement expected by option traders. This price range can be imputed from the break even points of the at-the-money straddle in the front most options. As shown in the graph below, this analysis gives a current expected price range of 167-203 following earnings release.

Now let us consider a double calendar spread with strikes selected to encompass this anticipated price range. To review quickly, a calendar spread consists of selling a short dated option while buying a longer dated option at the same strike price. An example of such a trade in NFLX is presented below:

That looks pretty sweet, right? We have projected break even points of 147.3 and 238.86 and a probability of profit (P.P.) of 100%. So all we have to do is put this on, wait for earnings, and barring any huge surprise, we take profit of 100% or more home.

What could possibly go wrong? Unfortunately there is a high probability of a sequence of events that will totally erase any profits and likely result in a loss. Go back and look at the option pricing matrix above and focus on the IV of the options we are buying. These options trade at a volatility of 60%. Is that high or low? You tell me from this historic graph of volatility in NFLX options:

As you can see, the current level of volatility that you are buying in the long legs of the calendar is quite elevated on a historical basis. Furthermore, the spread between statistical (historical) and implied volatilities has rarely been greater. This combination of events sets up a high probability of a “volatility crush” on the options you hold long as part of the spread. The moving parts of this crush are:

1. Cessation of the “bleeding” of juiced IV from the weeklies into the monthly series as the weekly option IV deflates massively.

2. Convergence of IV toward the value of historical volatility in order to close the huge divergence in the levels currently present.

This situation sets up a high probability for a negative impact on the trade which will almost certainly result in a loss. Do I know these events will transpire? Absolutely not, and I may be 100% wrong. Survival as an options trader is all about recognizing high probability events and structuring trades accordingly. No free cheese here; time to move along to the next trade.

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J.W. Jones

Cartoon of the day

Calling all carbs, calling all carbs...

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Illinois Supreme Court says Emanuel can stay on ballot

At least until they decide his case…..

The Illinois Supreme Court has ordered the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners to put Rahm Emanuel’s name back on the mayoral ballot.

The court has not decided whether to hear Emanuel’s appeal of Monday’s Illinois Appellate Court ruling that tossed him out of the race to replace Mayor Daley. But the Supreme Court granted Emanuel’s motion for a stay of the ruling.

“The appellate court decision is stayed,’’ the Supreme Court’s order reads. “The Board of Elections is directed that if any ballots are printed while this Court is considering this case, the ballots should include the name of petitioner Rahm Emanuel as a candidate for Mayor of the City of Chicago.’’ — Supreme Court: Emanuel stays on ballot while his case is considered – Chicago Sun-Times

Now unlike some Blogs on the right; I am not going to sit here and carp about how this shows corruption or anything like that. If the man is legally allowed, then let the man run. If not, then he should be removed. Hopefully something becomes of it and the law is upheld.

Quote of the Day

But 8 million homes are today in foreclosure or their owners are delinquent in their mortgage payments. Some 5.5 million are occupied by families whose mortgages are at least 20 percent higher than the value of the property, making them prime candidates for foreclosure.

This weekend, Bank of America reported fourth-quarter losses of $1.6 billion and a 2010 yearly loss of $3.6 billion. Its credit card unit took a $10 billion write-down, and its home loan business is still reeling from the fallout of the exploded housing bubble.

Now, facing trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see, House Republicans are balking at agreeing to raise the debit limit of $14.3 trillion, though the national debt just crossed the $14 trillion mark.

Are the happy days really here again?

Local Story: Detroit Police officers shot

I’ve been meaning to blog about this….

Video:

 

Detroit— The four police officers who were shot inside their precinct are recovering today, as officials take a hard look at security measures.

Police plan to release the surveillance video that captured Sunday’s harrowing shooting. Investigators say 38-year-old Lamar Moore of Detroit entered the 6th Precinct on the city’s northwest side about 4:30 p.m. and shot Cmdr. Brian Davis, who’s in charge of the precinct; Officer David Anderson; Sgt. Ray Saati; and Sgt. Carrie Schulz.

Officers returned fire, killing Moore, Detroit Police Chief Ralph Godbee said today.

“I watched the video, and was impressed with the acts of heroism (by the officers involved),” Godbee said. “In a split second, their lives changed.

Paula Hodges, Moore’s grandmother, declined to comment about the incident. But a woman who identified herself as Moore’s sister said she was “shocked” by what happened.

“He wasn’t like that at all,” the woman said. “This is totally out of character for him.”

Godbee said police were investigating Moore before the shooting at the precinct.

“We were investigating whether he was involved in another crime,” Godbee said, adding that police had been to a home connected with Moore prior to the shooting.

There were reports that Moore had visited the 6th Precinct a few hours before the shooting, but Godbee could not verify those reports. “We’re taking a close look (at video surveillance tape) to see whether he was there earlier,” Godbee said. “I can’t definitively say whether he came in (the precinct) before.”

John Sellers, 55, said Moore used to live with him on Roselawn Street, and still used his address to get mail.

“I’m shocked this happened,” Sellers said. “I never thought he’d do something like this. He always had a smile on his face.” — Gunman’s sister: Shooting was ‘totally out of character for him’ | detnews.com | The Detroit News

I have been meaning to write about this; but have been a bit busy. I saw yesterday on a Conservative site, people carping about what the man’s religion was — to which I say…”Oh Please” 🙄 The man is black and the local Fox Affliate here said that they were hearing from sources that the man might have had a grudge against the police. Plus, now this info above. I really believe that the Conservative Blogging world and World in general needs to chill out about assuming everything is connected to Islam. Anyhow, as someone who had ambitions to be in law enforcement at one point in my young life; I find this news to be absolutely heartbreaking. I used to be a Police Explorer and if things had been different, I most likely would have been a Detroit Police Officer.

My thoughts and Prayers are with the familes and with the guys down at the Sixth. 🙁

 

UPDATE: Explosion in Russia at airport — Video Added

Not good to hear…….

Video via Russia Today:

A bomb attack at Moscow’s Domodedovo airport has killed at least 35 people and injured more than 100 – many of them critically, officials say.

Investigators say the explosion, which happened in the arrivals hall, was caused by a suicide bomber.

President Dmitry Medvedev vowed that those behind the attack would be tracked down and punished.

He ordered increased security across Russia’s capital, its airports and other transport hubs.

Mr Medvedev also called an emergency meeting with officials and also postponed his planned departure for this week’s World Economic Forum at Davos. — BBC News – Moscow bombing: Carnage at Russia’s Domodedovo airport

Reckon them Ruskies will learn to take terrorism seriously now? I say this because it seems that the Russians never really took terrorism that seriously. They acted as if it was a USA problem with the World. Maybe now they will look at things a bit differently.

Prayers for the people in the area.

Update: Here is the video of the actual attack from security camera:

Rahm Emanuel tossed off ballot in Chicago by court

Now this is interesting….

Rahm Emanuel was thrown off the ballot for mayor of Chicago Monday by an appellate court panel, a stunning blow to the fund-raising leader in the race.

An appellate panel ruled 2-1 that Emanuel did not meet the residency standard to run for mayor.

Appellate justices Thomas Hoffman and Shelvin Louise Marie Hall ruled against Emanuel. Justice Bertina Lampkin voted in favor of keeping President Obama’s former chief of staff on the Feb. 22 ballot.

Emanuel, speaking to reporters at The Berghoff in the Loop, said he is confident he will win an appeal and return to the ballot.

“I have no doubt at the end we will prevail,” Emanuel said. “As my father has said, nothing is ever easy.”   —- ‘We will prevail,’ Emanuel says after court boots him off ballot – Chicago Sun-Times

….and a collective “HEH” goes out though the Blogosphere…..

Of course Emanuel says that he will appeal and of course, someone will get a briefcase full of money and he will be allowed to run. Just how things are in Chicago; after all. Look how we got our President.