Short Term or Long Term? that, my friends, is the question of the hour.
According to the latest Gallop poll, John McCain is taken a nice 5 point lead, above the 2% margin of error, over Barack Obama.
Quote:
John McCain leads Barack Obama, 49% to 44%, in the immediate aftermath of the Republican National Convention, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results.
These results are based on Sept. 5-7 interviewing, and are the first in which all interviews were conducted following the completion of the GOP convention. Immediately prior to the convention’s Sept. 1 start, Aug. 29-31 interviewing showed McCain with 43% support among registered voters, compared with 49% today. Thus, Gallup credits McCain with a six-point convention bounce.
That is slightly better than Barack Obama’s four-point bounce from 45% in Aug. 22-24 polling before the Democratic National Convention started to 49% immediately after it concluded. Since 1964, the typical convention bounce has been five percentage points.
Here are the charts:
This really nothing new because there’s been a bounce like this since 1964:
Like I wrote yesterday. the big question is, will this bounce on McCain’s part be short term or long term? I’m sure that John McCain and the Republican Party is betting the farm that the bounce will remain and John McCain will simply glide into the White House. However, this is not 1980 and John McCain is not Ronald Reagan, neither is Sarah Palin, I mean, she’s a good speaker, and kinda cute, for an older Woman, but she’s no Reagan. Plus, the country is in a much different shape; politically and financially, plus, I think it is just a different world, we have two wars, that America wants to just see ended, preferably with good results.
Which leads me to my next point. I simply do not understand why Adam McKay had this Nuclear melt down on The Huffington Post. I mean, let’s not discount the Democratic Party or Barack Obama until the damn polls close on Novemeber 4, 2008, please. We’re very early in this race.
The best advice or comment that I can give, is watch the polls for the next few weeks, is about all I can truly say here. The long term polls will tell the story. I think that if Obama wants to regain his lead, he has to drive the point home the point that the Republican Party IS the Party of George W. Bush. They will have remind Americans of the nonsense of the Bush Administration, on FISA, on the Attorney General scandal, Valerie Plume gate, and on and on…. They need to remind America about John McCain’s ties to lobbyists, even possibly infer that he slept with one, They also need to remind and tell America how Sarah Palin lied about the Jet, her flip-flop on the bridge to nowhere and so on. That is what will win this.
So, the bottom line is:
This is a very early poll and there’s many more to come, before November 4, 2008.
Others: Hot Air, JammieWearingFool, Ace of Spades HQ, and more via Memeorandum
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