Egad, two days away and this is the best that John McCain can do? Not good, not good at all.
Via USA Today:
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by 11 percentage points in the last USA TODAY/Gallup national poll of likely voters before Election Day.
With less than two days to go before polls open, the contenders’ support is estimated to be:
• Obama, 53%.
• McCain, 42%.Those numbers, released this hour, are based on national surveys of 2,472 likely voters. The interviews were conducted by telephone on Friday, Saturday and today. The margin of error on each figure is +/- 2 percentage points.
Gallup says the group it surveyed is mostly made up of voters who fit its “traditional” model of those likely to show up at the polls. Also among the 2,472 are some who have already voted — including first-timers.
The results are identical to Gallup’s “expanded” pool of likely voters, which adds more first-time voters than the survey firm used in the past.
One other set of numbers to consider: Gallup says that when it allocates the 4% of likely voters who either had no opinion or would not choose between Obama and McCain, it estimates the candidates’ current support levels would most likely be 55% for Obama, 44% for McCain.
This very well could be the writing on the wall for the McCain campaign. What could be causing such a hemorrhage of support for John McCain. Well, besides all the stuff racked up against the Bush Administration, there’s this:
McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate doesn’t appear to be wearing well with most Americans. In the poll, 45% of registered voters rated the choice as “poor” and another 18% said it was “only fair,” while 19% called it “pretty good” and 16% excellent.
Those are much more negative ratings than in a USA TODAY survey taken just after the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. Then, 60% called the pick of Palin excellent or good; 38% said it was “only fair” or poor.
In contrast, assessments of Barack Obama’s choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remain positive. Now, 60% call Obama’s choice excellent or “pretty good,” while 38% say it was “only fair” or poor. In early September, the divide was 63%-33%.
Biden has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 53%-32%. Palin has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 42%-49%.
One more historic tidbit from the survey: Obama’s favorable rating is 62% — the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup’s final pre-election polls going back to 1992.
That may very well be the answer. As I have written on here, many times before, John McCain ran on a faulty narrative. One that assumed that the angry Hillary Clinton voters would just come vote for John McCain. That formula, I am afraid was based upon some very flawed thinking. There was a great deal of cooling off that took place, not to mention there was quite a bit of mending that took place in the Democratic Party, between the factions.
Further more, John McCain thought that Sarah Palin would energize the base towards his campaign, and it did just that, but that’s the only thing it energized, it never did catch on with the rest of America. I cannot say that it is entirely the fault of John McCain himself, because having a Vice-Presidential pick say silly stuff like, “I can see Russia from my House!” as a qualification for Foreign policy experience, is not a good way to make an impression on the Independent voters.
I will offer the standard caveat, that is that polls are a snapshot in time; one should keep the issues, not the polls in mind when voting. Vote your principles, Vote your conscience, Vote with your mind, vote with your heart, But above all, Vote. Lives have been lost, blood has been spilled on many a battlefield; distant and domestic, over the great vast space of that shadowing figure we call time; so that we as American Citizens can exercise that one scared thing that gives we the people; the great citizens of this free and Democratic Republic, that is the opportunity to voice our opinions in what happens in our political system in this great country of ours. That is to cast a private ballot choosing whom; we as free Americans, without fear of oppression, to choose the next person to be the President of the United States of America.